March Madness 2011 Predictions: Does Recent History Give UNC a Final Four Edge?

The North Carolina Tar Heels begin their quest in the NCAA tournament on Friday and if recent history is any indication, there is a good chance that their road could lead to the Final Four.

Few observers held that opinion early in the season, as most agreed that the Tar Heels were a very talented team, but questions such as youth and depth were thought to be barriers to any postseason success.

What a difference a couple of months make.

Coach Roy Williams inserted point guard Kendall Marshall into the starting lineup in place of the ever-slumping Larry Drew and the Tar Heels haven't looked back since.

Drew's benching and subsequent departure ignited a run by North Carolina that didn't end until an ACC tournament championship game loss to Duke.

The Heels clinched the ACC regular-season title en route and earned a No. 2 seed in the East for their efforts.

How far North Carolina advances in this year's NCAA tournament depends on the steady development of Marshall and Harrison Barnes—and maybe a little nod to the Tar Heels' recent history.

North Carolina last won NCAA championships in 2005 and 2009, and the trajectory of its path bears a striking resemblance to this year's team.

The Tar Heels clinched the ACC regular-season title in each of those years and then went on to lose in the ACC tournament.

But the loss in the tournament didn't stem the Tar Heels momentum as they were able to race to the NCAA championship in 2005 and 2009.

If you believe in signs and symbols—and many people do at this time of the year—then the Tar Heels' recent history would suggest a deep postseason run, but I wouldn't make any reservations for Houston just yet.

There are also some stark contrasts between the 2005 and 2009 version of the Tar Heels and this current team and the glaring difference may be experience and leadership.

The 2005 team was led by juniors Raymond Felton, Sean May and Rashard McCants, and seniors Jawad Williams and Jackie Manuel.

The 2009 Tar Heels benefited from the leadership of Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson, but the 2011 Tar Heels don't have that type of experience to lean on.

Marshall has all the makings of a superior floor general, but the fact that he is still a freshman is something that Duke capitalized on in the ACC championship game, as their pressure forced Marshall into several early turnovers.

Barnes will serve as North Carolina's primary scoring option and the poise he has shown in pressure situations is impressive.

Few players in the country have hit as many big shots as Barnes, but you have to wonder if the atmosphere and pressure of March will finally rattle him.

The Tar Heels' other wild card is ACC Defensive Player of the Year John Henson because he has the ability to dictate the pace of any game with his shot-blocking ability, but due to his small frame he is also vulnerable to physical play in the post.

A strong postseason run is definitely possible for this team and the Tar Heels may have the element of surprise because few analysts consider them true Final Four favorites.

Most of that consideration has been reserved for older, more experienced teams such as Ohio State, Kansas and Duke.

But North Carolina can look to the past for inspiration, as 2005 and 2009 should serve as plenty of motivation for the young team.