UFC 128 Fight Card: How Can Shogun Rua Upset Jon Jones?

Mauricio "Shogun" Rua will make his first Light Heavyweight title defense on Saturday night against Jon Jones, and he will do so as the underdog.

Yes, the 23-year old challenger Jones (minus-200) is the heavy favorite over the veteran champion, Rua (plus-160). In fact, most of the media seem to have crowned Jones and are already looking towards a fight between him and Rashad Evans.

Jones has lived up to and maybe even surpassed all of the hype so far. He has a good chance of leaving New Jersey as the UFC Light Heavyweight champ. 

So what can Shogun do to pull off the upset and successfully defend his belt? 

He can end the fight early with his striking, much like he did when he won the belt from Lyoto Machida.

Jones has never faced a striker as good as Shogun, or been hit with a good shot on the chin. We really have no idea how good his chin is.  If Shogun finds an opening in Jones' standup and tags him on the chin, this fight could be over in a hurry.

However, if he can’t end the fight early, Shogun will need to rely on his takedown defense, which has been suspect at times.

Jon Jones is tall, strong and can shoot for the takedown from just about anywhere. He’s very successful at taking you down and strong enough to hold you there. Shogun must avoid the takedown if at all possible.

However, assuming he does get taken down, Shogun needs to exploit any openings Jones leaves with submission attempts.

Since he is such a good striker, some people forget that Shogun is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt and has a very good ground game.

If the fight remains standing, Shogun will need to tie Jones up and maybe press him against the cage in order to work the clinch game. Punish him with some of his devastating knees.

When he’s not tying him up, he can throw some of those thundering leg kicks at him.

Shogun has been in Jones’ position before. He was the “unbeatable” phenom when he was Jones' age.

Now he needs to use that experience and stay composed if things aren’t going his way. 

On the other hand, we don’t know how Jones will react if things don’t go his way early, either. Will doubt creep into his mind? 

Shogun was the underdog when he faced the then-unbeatable Machida, and came out with his hand raised. If he can do it this time, could he be considered the greatest Light Heavyweight of all time?

UFC 128: Shogun Rua vs. Jon Jones: Results, News and More

Check out my blog at Beerbrunch.com.  Follow me on twitter @beerbrunch.