Mitch's Week Six College Football Picks: Part Two

With games already starting last night and one to three games every other night this week heading into the full slate of games on Saturday, there are plenty of chances to increase my winning record against the spread this year.

There seems to be plenty of good chances, and maybe some lines that are out of order, and I continue to do my homework trying to figure out how I think things should transpire.

Of course, once the ball is kicked off, we're never exactly sure what's going to happen, but with some work we can usually come up with a good reason for making the picks we make. Let's get on to 10 more games taking place this week in college football.

Oklahoma -27 at Baylor (Saturday 10/4/08, 12:30 EST) 1 Unit

Well here I am, back on the horse laying a ton of points with the No. 1 team in the country on the road.

Why would I do such a thing? I am doing this because Oklahoma can cover this spread by halftime without batting an eye, and while I think Art Briles has done a great job at Baylor and they are exciting to watch, they may just be a little too reliant on one player, quarterback Robert Griffin, to be competitive with a Sooner team which appears to be loaded.

The Sooners are steamrolling everyone in sight, and while that trend may or may not continue all season, I certainly look for it to continue this week. While Baylor played OU pretty tough in 2005, this series has been blowout city just about every year, and this spread is on the light side compared to some of those we've seen in this game in the past.

The Sooners come in covering five of their last six games and 11 of their last 16 on the road. They have covered all three times out this year and have outscored the competition by a very impressive 199-52 margin.

For Baylor, the Bears are 2-12 against the spread in their last 14 conference games, 5-12 against the spread in their last 17 home games, and 6-14 against the spread in their last 20 overall.

And while the series trends favor the underdog, we're talking spread that have been in the 36-55 point range and the road team has covered seven of the last eight times, so I'm on Oklahoma.

Kentucky +16 1/2 at Alabama (Saturday 10/4/08, 3:30 EST) 1 Unit

Congratulations are in order for Nick Saban and his Alabama Crimson Tide for not only winning a huge game in Athens last weekend, but putting together arguably one of the greatest first half's of football in the history of the college game. I think we'll be talking about that first half for many many years; in all likelihood, it will become the benchmark for all and any single half of football in a big game to ever be played again.

As you all know, these aren't compliments that come from me very often, and I've seen a ton of football in my life, but it was just that impeccable; you couldn't draw it up any better.

With that being said, Kentucky has been under-the-radar good and undefeated, as well, and is no slouch in its own right. Many thought the Cats wouldn't be much this year after the departure of their quarterback and team leader, Andre Woodson, but someone forgot to tell this to the Kentucky defense.

While I'm not sure who actually wins this game, I'm pretty sure that public perception after last weeks game between the hedges has skewed this spread to untouchable levels for even the staunchest of Tide backers.

While Alabama is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games overall, it has been anything but world beaters at home, going just 7-19-2 against the spread in its last 28 in Tuscaloosa, and is just 2-5 against thr spread following its last seven covers.

Kentucky comes in just 1-4 against the spread in its last five conference games, but is a very nice 6-2 against the spread in its last eight on the road. The Wildcats defense will once again be key, as UK is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games following a game where it gave up less than 20 points.

While I think Alabama is vastly improved, 16 1/2 points is just too many for an SEC battle these days.

See 8 more free picks from Mitch in this article alone at The College Football Place.