March Madness 2011 Predictions: Which Cinderella Stories Will End First?

Five years ago, George Mason advanced to the Final Four as an 11-seed. This has only grown the legend of the Cinderella story, a long shot that becomes the sentimental favorite for the remainder of the tournament. While not being unheard of going into last year's tournament, Butler reached the final against Duke and was a bounce away from winning an improbable National Championship.

Now, as people fill out their brackets, the annual argument rages about which low seed will surprise us all and last deep into the tournament. Every person has their team and few, if any, will be correct. The dreams of all teams will eventually end with an unhappy ending, but will a Cinderella story end with a championship this year?

It's time, right before the Round of 64 begins, to flatten some of these fairy tales and look at which teams will have their dreams come true, as opposed to those who are simply dreaming.

Belmont

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WASHINGTON - MARCH 20: Keaton Belcher #3, Will Peeples #33 and Jordan Campbell #32 of the Belmont Bruins react to a play from the bench against the Duke Blue Devils during the first round of the West Regional as part of the 2008 NCAA Men's Basketball Tou

This is the Belmont bench when they were celebrating three years ago in the NCAA Tournament. As a 15-seed in 2008, the Bruins took the Duke Blue Devils to the limit, leading late in the second half before falling short by one point. It was the third straight appearance in the tournament for Belmont, their only berths in the tournament in their history until this year.

Now, after three turns as a 15-seed, the Bruins sit with a 30-4 record and a 13-seed in this year's Southeast region. Their first round opponent is a Wisconsin team that is experienced in the tournament and only has losses to teams within this year's tournament. However, Wisconsin is expected to fall in many people's eyes.

Perhaps this is due to the last two games for Wisconsin, a 28-point loss to Ohio State and a pathetic 36-33 loss in the Big Ten tournament to Penn State. Belmont has been cruising, last losing on January 25.

I am on board of the Bruins getting their first-ever NCAA Tournament victory. I have them moving past Wisconsin and into the Round of 32. I don't see much more for Belmont beyond that, however.

Oakland

What has happened to the hype behind Texas? The Longhorns have gone from National Championship contender to almost an afterthought. Now ranked as a fourth-seed, many are on the bandwagon of Oakland. No, not Oakland, California. Oakland is in Michigan.

Oakland is second in the country in scoring, averaging just over 85 points per game, but this team has played many ranked teams this season and has only pulled one upset over Tennessee. This is lost in the shuffle compared to the destruction at the hands of West Virginia, Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois and others.

Texas in on the level of these teams and their low seeding is surely putting a chip on the shoulder of the Longhorns. Oakland may put a scare into Texas, but don't expect more than that.

Indiana State

It has been a decade since the Sycamores of Indiana State have gone dancing. Ten years ago, the team pulled off an upset over Oklahoma in the first round. In that tournament, Indiana State was a 14-seed, just like they are this year. This time around, they face a Syracuse team that is very experienced in the tournament. The Orange have been in the Sweet 16 each of the past two seasons deapite having a relatively young squad.

Indiana State is a school often known as the school that Larry Bird went to, but there are no Larry Birds on this year's team. Not only do I not think that Indiana State will upset Syracuse, but I believe that Syracuse is a team to look for in regards to a team to come out of the East region.

Morehead State

I'm not sure why, but I loved this team two years ago when they played in the Opening Round game. I knew that they would not win in the first round, but I enjoyed watching them play. However, even in their place as a 13-seed, I cannot imagine them moving on with the upset. Why, you ask? They're playing Louisville.

This is more than a "I think that Louisville is better" argument. While they are, there is more to this. They cannot beat Louisville in the NCAA Tournament. They have tried before—three times.

This is Morehead State's seventh trip to the NCAA Tournament and, of the six previous chances, they have been eliminated from half of them by the Louisville Cardinals. In 1961, 1984 and 2009, Louisville got rid of Morehead State from the bracket. You can add 2011 to that list.

And yes, Morehead State is known as "that team that Kenneth Fareid plays for", but Morehead State cannot compete with the defense that Louisville will put on them and, more specifically, on Fareid. Fareid will put on a show, but don't expect his legend to grow too long in this tournament.

Princeton

Everyone is aware of the way that Princeton made it to the Big Dance. While the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament, it seemed that way this year when Princeton and Harvard played a one-game playoff on a neutral court to decide which team would be arguably the smartest team in the field.

Princeton is heralded as a team that pulled off one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tournament history, defeating UCLA in the first round of the 1996 tournament. This year's Tigers are in the dance for the first time since 2004. They will face a Kentucky team who fell just shy of a Final Four a year ago with John Wall and company. This time around, the Wildcats look to do even better with a new class of freshmen phenoms.

This is just too much of a hill to overcome for the Ivy leaguers. Kentucky is too good that, even with a lack of experience for their big stars, the Wildcats will move onto the Round of 32.

George Mason

The team partially responsible for this article, George Mason made a Cinderella more than simply a Sweet 16 team when they went to the Final Four as an 11-seed. That was five years ago. Two years later, Notre Dame took out the Patriots and they have not been back since.

This year, the team is an 8-seed in the East, taking on Villanova in the first round. An underachieving Wildcats squad could fall victim to George Mason, who is a higher-ranked team after all. However, the win would likely put them in a clash with Ohio State for the chance at the Sweet 16. That is likely as far as George Mason goes this time around.

Old Dominion

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NEW ORLEANS - MARCH 20: Kent Bazemore #24 of the Old Dominion University Monarchs shoots the ball over Tweety Carter #45 of the Baylor Bears during the second round of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at the New Orleans Arena on March 20, 2010 i

Yet another intriguing 8-9 matchup is Butler, who went to the National Championship game a year ago, against Old Dominion, a team that has been on the verge of a Cinderella run in the tournament. The two teams met four years ago, when Butler won and eventually made it to the Sweet 16.

Old Dominion is on a hot streak going into the tournament, winning nine in a row and 13 of their last 14 games. In 13 career tournament games, Old Dominion has won just three games. In my personal bracket, I have Old Dominion winning three games, ending at the Elite Eight. I would jump on the bandwagon of Old Dominion if I were you.

USC

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 11: Nikola Vucevic #5 and Marcus Simmons #43 of the USC Trojans react late in the second half while taking on the Arizona Wildcats in the semifinals of the 2011 Pacific Life Pac-10 Men's Basketball Tournament at Staples Center on

NOTE: They are playing as I write this article in their First Four matchup against VCU.

The Trojans have stumbled throughout the season, but did enough to gain a berth in the tournament. With a win tonight, USC would face Georgetown in the next round. Many believe that USC can win that game as well and have a chance at a Sweet 16 berth, likely against Purdue. Many are on board with USC pulling the upset, which would make USC the first team to win an opening round game and win their next game as well since the field expanded from 64 and opening round games were created.

I personally lost all of my faith in USC already. This was a team destined for great things this year and they have done nothing but disappoint. Getting behind them and thinking that they might make a run in the tournament is wishful thinking and wasting good wishes on a team that certainly doesn't deserve them from their play this year. I think that they will defeat VCU tonight, but nothing beyond that.

Utah State

Utah State has constantly put themselves in a position to make that big upset in the bracket. They were the 12-seed that upset Ohio State ten years ago. Since then, they have had first round exits in five of the nine tournaments since. They lost 64-61 to Kansas in 2003 as a 15-seed. They lost by 13 to Arizona in 2005 as a 14-seed. In 2006, it was a 14-point loss to Washington as a 12-seed. As an 11-seed two years ago, they lost to Marquette by one. Last year was a 16-point loss as a 12-seed facing Texas A&M.

They may be the busiest and most consistent mid-major team in Division I basketball. Just when people have taken their radar off of you, what better time for Utah State to finally get the job done in the tournament? They are 30-3 this year, losing just once since the beginning of December. Their other two losses this season: at Georgetown and at BYU. This team is a lot better than the 12-seed that they are given.

One of the major bracket rules is to advance at least one 12-seed each year. Utah State is that 12-seed. Couple that with a potential Belmont upset of Wisconsin and your classic 12-13 matchup in the Round of 32 happens. Advance Utah State past Belmont and they could easily be in the Sweet 16.

Richmond

Speaking of 12-seeds that are good enough to pull of an upset, here are the Richmond Spiders, a mainstay around the bubble in the past few seasons. Over their last sixteen games, only Xavier and Temple were able to stop them. However, they got back at Temple later on, costing them a chance at the Atlantic 10 automatic bid.

Richmond looks for its first tourney victory in 13 years and will likely get it against Vanderbilt, who has limped into the tournament with four losses in their last seven games. Vandy is not the team that they were earlier this season. While I may have put a little too much stock into Vanderbilt during my SEC Tournament coverage, I believe that when it rains, it pours. There's definitely some rain in Vanderbilt's weather forecast.

This, coupled with a Morehead State upset of Louisville, would give us yet another chance at a 12-13 matchup with the winner going to the Sweet 16.