UFC 128 Fight Card: 5 Reasons Champ (and Underdog) Shogun Rua Can Beat Jon Jones
We interrupt coverage of the UFC 128 Jon Jones Coronation Ceremony to bring you a special news item.
I have just discovered that Mauricio "Shogun" Rua is NOT coming to Newark this Saturday in order to sprinkle flower petals on the carpet in front of Jones as he makes his way to the throne room. Instead, Rua is apparently heading to New Jersey for a fight. Go figure.
It's easy to get swept onto the Jon Jones bandwagon—sometimes it seems the more people who clamber up, the more seats become available.
MMA fans who have long admired the young man's talent are intoxicated by the prospect of watching Jones blossom into a superstar who can put mixed martial arts on his broad shoulders and carry it into living rooms around the world. That journey would begin Saturday against Rua.
Vegas is along for this ride as well, with every oddsmaker I've seen putting Jones as a modest—but clear—favorite.
It could very well be that Jones this weekend will become UFC royalty, which so many are so eager to witness. I really can't think of anyone who would muster much of an objection.
Well, maybe I can think of one person: Shogun Rua. Right, the flower petal guy. It actually turns out he has some inclination not to roll over.
Kidding aside, it seems strange to have to remind people that the reigning UFC light heavyweight champion is, in fact, a bad man. A very bad man. He has plowed through stiff competition before, and he can plow through Jones this Saturday. Oh, yes he can.
Here are five reasons why the champ can get it done.
5. Bullying the Bully
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Remember the Machida era? Rua was supposed to be a footnote in that grand history too. Problem was, Shogun was able to solve Lyoto Machida's previously unsolvable style by, if you'll pardon my jargon, getting in his face and hitting him a lot.
With victories over Ryan Bader, Vladimir Matyushenko, Brandon Vera and others, Jones has a legitimate résumé. Until this point, though, most of his opponents were fighting to avoid a loss, if not outright embarrassment.
Shogun will not be one of those opponents. If Jones wants the belt, he'll need to get it the old-fashioned way and earn it. That might—actually, it likely will—mean getting hurt. At this point, there is nothing in Jones' fighting career to suggest how he might respond to such a development.
4. A Leg Up on the Feet
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Jones has never faced a UFC opponent with top-notch stand-up. In fact, with the possible exception of Stephan Bonnar, Jones has never really faced a striker of any major notoriety.
To take that a step further, Jones has probably not faced anyone who was clearly better than him in any phase of the game.
That all changes this Saturday. Jones has demonstrated a remarkable creative capacity for striking, but that capacity has never been tested against someone with an attack as deadly as that which Rua brings to the Octagon with his fatal Muay Thai. For the first time, Jones won't be exchanging with an opponent who can't stay in his league. Far from it.
Jones may hold an advantage on the ground and can probably hold his own on the feet, but let there be no question: Shogun is the better striker here.
3. Unorthodoxy Dislikes Unorthodoxy?
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Jon Jones gets a lot of run for being unorthodox; Muay Thai is the original unorthodox style.
With March Madness about to hit full throttle, it seems apropos to invoke an old college hoops saying: Pressing teams don't like to be pressed. Essentially, it means that the worst medicine can often be a healthy dose of your own concoction.
I have a feeling that theory could hold up in Newark too. Spinning backfists and elbow strikes that start with a windup like a fastball pitcher may not seem so viable when they must be dreamed up in the face of a seemingly omnidirectional barrage of knees, elbows, fists and feet.
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2. Not His First Rodeo
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Rua himself was once a 23-year-old phenom. But that was quite a few moons ago. Since then, Rua has battled and defeated such MMA eminences as Machida (twice), Rampage Jackson, Alistair Overeem and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.
All respect to Matyushenko, Bonnar and the rest, but Jones' victims list is far less illustrious. If Jones beats Rua Saturday night, that will change. But Rua has already had his trials by fire, and his bona fides are carved in stone. That experience, and the expertise that results, can't help but emerge in the Octagon.
1. Finally, He's Finally Healthy
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Does he mean it this time? Is he fully recovered and ready? We'll see for sure this Saturday. But Rua does not seem eager to delay his return to the cage, as evidenced by the fact that he declined to reschedule this fight after Rashad Evans bowed out with injury.
Shogun certainly took his time with this rehab, and there have been no signs (at least publicly) of any pessimism. A full-speed Shogun should, in and of itself, cause the Jon Jones bandwagon to tap on its brakes. If that doesn't do the trick, come Saturday Shogun might just have to do it for them—in the interest of everyone's safety.
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