NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: Texas Longhorns Get over the Hump in West Region

Best Team: No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils

The defending national champions began the season viewed as last year’s Kansas—nearly unbeatable and all but a shoo-in to cut down the nets in Houston.

Unlike the 2009-10 Jayhawks, Duke became somewhat of an afterthought by season’s end, and maybe that isn’t such a bad thing because we all know how the hype turned out for Kansas last March. Of the four No. 1 seeds, Duke is getting the least amount of ink, but that’s about to change.

CBS and Sports Illustrated college basketball analyst Seth Davis reported late Tuesday that point guard Kyrie Irving, who has been out since early December with turf toe, has been cleared for practice. His status for this weekend is uncertain, but this is big news moving forward.

The Blue Devils are going to run through to the Sweet 16, and that’s when it becomes more likely that Irving could make a real difference. If he plays at anywhere near the level he was prior to the injury, Duke instantly becomes the favorite to repeat.

In case you forgot, Irving exploded onto the scene averaging about 17 points, five assists and four rebounds, while shooting a blistering 53 percent from the floor, 45 percent from the line and 90 percent from the charity stripe.

Add that to the nucleus of Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler and a slew of talented reserves, and all of a sudden, Duke again becomes the talk of the town.

If Irving doesn’t come back, no one in this region can claim to have had a better season than the 30-4 Blue Devils. With its Hall of Fame coach and abundance of talent, Duke remains the team to beat in the West.

Bracketbuster (6-16 seed that could wreak havoc): No. 11 seed Missouri Tigers

When the calendar flipped to February, Missouri was 17-4 and ranked in the Top 15 in both polls, but it finished the season by splitting its last six games. That sounds like a team on the downturn, but consider that two of the losses were to Kansas, one came at Kansas State and its loss in the conference tournament came at the hands of Texas A&M.

Kansas is a top seed, Kansas State is a No. 5 seed and the Aggies are a No. 7, so it isn’t like the Tigers were losing to the NIT field.

Their 23 wins are more than the No. 8, No. 9 and No. 10 seed in this region, so the feeling here is that Missouri is under-seeded.

Two things about the Tigers stand out: their experience and style. Four of their top five players are juniors who were contributing freshmen on the 2008-09 team that made a run to the Elite Eight, and almost no one outside of the Big 12 has had to prepare for their “40 minutes of hell” strategy, which is a full-court assault.

This could cause real problems for their first-round opponent, the over-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats, who start a freshman and a sophomore in the backcourt, and is the last style Connecticut, who Missouri will likely face in the second round, wants to see less than a week after playing five games in five days at Madison Square Garden.

The game against the Huskies would be a rematch of the 2009 Elite Eight, won by UConn. You can bet Marcus Denmon, Kim English and company are chomping at the bit for the opportunity to exact some revenge. They’ll get their chance, and I expect them to deliver.

Most Likely to be Upset (1-5 seed sent home in first weekend): No. 3 seed Connecticut Huskies

This became the obvious choice after the last paragraph. I pity the Huskies because what they did in New York City last week was nothing short of incredible, but ultimately, what did it get them?

A meaningless conference tournament championship trophy, loads of exposure (which it hardly needs) and dead legs.

It would have probably been better if they dipped out in the quarterfinals against Syracuse, nabbed a No. 5 seed and saved their energy for this tournament, because they possess the coach, Jim Calhoun, and the star, Kemba Walker, to advance deep.

Walker is the best player in the nation, bar none, and he’s proven that all season long. He’s averaging 23.5 points, five rebounds and four assists, while carrying a young, up-and-coming team on his back for the past five months.

However, that is exactly what will get them eliminated. It’s a stretch to say Walker is a one-man show, as Jeremy Lamb, Alex Oriakhi and Shabazz Napier are nice players, but will any of them save the Huskies if Walker has an off night? Doubtful.

I don’t see them avoiding a worst-case scenario matchup with Missouri in the second round, and because of that, an early exit seems inevitable.

Best Player: Kemba Walker, Connecticut Huskies

Notre Dame’s Ben Hansbrough had a great season, but how in the world did he win Big East Player of the Year over Walker?

Walker’s numbers are better, and while Hansbrough’s team stood higher in the conference standings, consider how much better Notre Dame is top to bottom than UConn. They’re both the studs on their respective teams, but their job descriptions are entirely different.

Again, UConn can’t survive an off night by Walker. If Hansbrough struggles, he has Tim Abromaitis, Carleton Scott and Tyrone Nash to lean on.

Anyway, that’s water under the bridge. Walker is the cream of the crop. He scored 30 or more points nine times, including a high of 42 against Vermont in November. Along with his scoring prowess, he was also among the Big East leaders in assists, averaging 4.3 per game, and he gets it done defensively, notching just under two steals per night.

Many consider the Huskies to be a national championship contender. Without Walker, they wouldn’t have 10 wins.

Best Coach: Mike Krzyzewski, Duke Blue Devils

Overall record: 898-283 (826-224 at Duke)

NCAA tournament record: 77-22

Final Fours: 11

National Championships: Four (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010)

The Pick: Texas over San Diego State

It’s stupid to pick against Duke and seemingly even dumber to pick Texas to win the West, but here I am.

According to ESPN’s many analysts, the sky is falling in Austin, but I’m here to tell you it’s not.

Of Texas’ seven losses this year, five were by five points or less, including a two-point loss to Pitt and a buzzer-beating overtime loss to UConn. What that means is the Longhorns were this close to having the same 32-2 record as rival and top-seeded Kansas, who they throttled in Lawrence to end the Jayhawks’ 69-game home winning streak.

Texas has one of the region’s top five players in Jordan Hamilton (18.6 points, 7.6 rebounds), an elite on-ball defender in Dogus Balbay and two absolute beasts at forward in Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson.

The Longhorns rank fifth in the nation in rebounding and shoot 38 percent as a team from three-point range. Their stiffest competition will come in the Sweet 16 against Duke, but when the Blue Devils falter, it’s usually against a more athletic team.

Texas has the athletes to beat Duke, and no disrespect to San Diego State, which has had a great season, but I doubt the Aztecs have seen a group as talented as Texas. They’re a step above the competition that the Mountain West Conference has to offer.

Rick Barnes’ teams have become famous for flaming out early in March in recent years. This year, he gets the Longhorns over the hump.

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