NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: Breaking Down the West Region
March Madness has finally rolled around, as the brackets are now set.
The West Region offers viewers traditional powerhouses, including the Duke Blue Devils, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns and Arizona Wildcats.
With that being said, there are plenty of schools with little basketball history looking to make a run, most notably the San Diego State Aztecs. The Aztecs, along with fellow mid-majors Memphis and Temple, will have a chance at glory in the West Region.
This article will serve to answer a few crucial questions. What are the keys for each team in the West Region? Who are the top players to watch?
These factors will ultimately play a role in deciding the biggest question: Who will emerge from the West Region to play in the Final Four?
16. Hampton Pirates
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Hampton Pirates (24-8, 11-5 in the MEAC)
First-Round Opponent: Duke
The Hampton Pirates qualified for the NCAA Tournament by winning the MEAC Championship. The MEAC title, however, will have little to no bearing on how the Pirates will perform on the bigger scene.
The Pirates are led by a three-headed attack, consisting of Darrion Pellum, Kwame Morgan II and Charles Funches. Pellum, a 6'6" guard, could cause matchup problems for first-round opponent Duke, and the Pirates will need him to score upwards of his average of 17.7 points per game if they hope to stay in the game.
Morgan II is a deadly three-point shooter, averaging more than three per game, and Funches is an athletic big man who can stretch the floor.
The most concerning stat for the Pirates has to be their shooting percentage, which is a measly 40.7 percent. Neither of their top two guards shoot better than 39 percent, and Funches only shoots at a 42.4 percent clip.
In order to compete with Duke, the Pirates will need to shoot much better than they have thus far this season, and even if they do, it is highly unlikely that they will be the first 16-seed to win an NCAA Tournament game.
Worst Case Scenario: 40+-Point First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: 15-Point First-Round Loss
15. Northern Colorado Bears
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Northern Colorado Bears (21-10, 13-3 in the Big Sky)
First-Round Opponent: San Diego State
The Northern Colorado Bears pulled of a gutsy victory in the Big Sky Conference Finals, defeating Montana by a five-point margin. Devon Beitzel, the Big Sky Player of the Year, lit up the opposing Grizzlies for 27 points. It is highly unlikely that the undersized guard will be able to put together a similar game against the extremely versatile San Diego State Aztecs.
Chris Kaba and Neal Kingman are two bigs capable of playing well, but they will be outpowered by San Diego State's frontline.
One positive for the Bears is their recent performances: They have won seven straight games and 10 out of their last 11 overall.
The Bears have never made an appearance in March Madness before, and it is very doubtful that their first visit will also include a first victory.
Worst Case Scenario: 25+-Point First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: 10-Point First-Round Point Loss
14. Bucknell Bison
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Bucknell Bison (25-8, 13-1 in the Patriot League)
First-Round Opponent: Connecticut
Unlike most small-conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, the Bucknell Bison have a true post-presence. Mike Muscala, the Patriot League Player of the Year, stands just shy of 7', and is a great shooter, both from the field and the free throw line.
Bucknell's success will weigh heavily on guard play, assuming Muscala puts up his usually numbers. Bryson Johnson is an absolute sniper, having connected on 46 percent of his triples this season. Darryl Shazier is an elite passer, and he will have to play well to give the Bison a chance at the win.
A very important factor in Bucknell's first-round game against Connecticut will be Bryan Cohen. The 6'5" wing is the two-time reigning Patriot League Defensive Player of the Year, and will likely be assigned the daunting task of guarding Kemba Walker.
If Cohen can limit Walker, and Muscala can get Alex Oriakhi into foul trouble, Bucknell actually has a decent chance at winning against Connecticut.
Worst Case Scenario: Double-Digit First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: First-Round Win/Potential Second-Round Win Over Cincinnati or Missouri
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13. Oakland Golden Grizzlies
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Oakland Golden Grizzlies (25-9, 17-1 in the Summit League)
First-Round Opponent: Texas
The Oakland Golden Grizzlies scheduled an incredibly challenging non-conference schedule, preparing themselves adequately for March. Notably, they lost by one point to Michigan State, and pulled off an upset over Tennessee. In their past 19 games, Oakland has only lost once.
Oakland is led by Keith Benson, a legitimate NBA prospect at the center position. He has had a phenomenal four-year career, and will look to cap it off with a magical run. He may be in luck, as the tallest regular on Texas stands three inches shorter than he does. That player, Tristan Thompson, is very athletic, and it will be fun to watch he and Benson go at it all game long.
Reggie Hamilton is a very efficient guard, averaging over 17 points per game on 49 percent shooting from the field. He will have to light it up from downtown to give Benson some help.
The Golden Grizzlies have played many ranked opponents this year and were able to win one game. Perhaps a second win is in the waiting.
Worst Case Scenario: Double-Digit First Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Sweet Sixteen Run
12. Memphis Tigers
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Memphis Tigers (25-9, 10-6 in C-USA)
First-Round Opponent: Arizona
The Memphis Tigers have had some recent experience in March, but this year's team is very young. Their top two scorers are both freshmen, and they lack a true leader. With that being said, Memphis does have some strengths.
The Tigers go eight men deep, and all eight are capable of scoring double-digits on any given night. It will be interesting to see who steps up against Arizona, if anyone does.
Derrick Williams, Arizona's star player, could cause matchup problems for the Tigers. Tarik Black, a 6'8" freshman, will have to have his best performance of the year if he hopes to slow Williams down. The Tigers do, however, have a multitude of capable guards, and will not be out-talented in the backcourt.
While it has not been the best year for the Memphis program, the Tigers are still capable of winning a few March games.
Worst Case Scenario: Double-Digit First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Sweet Sixteen Run
11. Missouri Tigers
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Missouri Tigers (23-10, 8-8 in the Big 12)
First-Round Opponent: Cincinnati
The hopes and expectations were high for the Missouri Tigers at the beginning of the season. They were shaky down the stretch, however, and survived the bubble to get into the Big Dance. Now that they're here, they can do some damage.
The Tigers are incredibly talented at the offensive end, ranking ninth nationally in scoring. It will be interesting to see how they play offense against the elite defense of Cincinnati.
Five Tigers average double-digits in the scoring column, led by Marcus Denmon and his 17.1 points per game. Both Laurence Bowers and Ricardo Ratliffe are capable of taking over in the post, and Missouri should be feeling confident going up against the somewhat-overrated Cincinnati Bearcats.
If Denmon gets the Missouri offense going early and often, the Tigers will likely win their first-round matchup. Furthermore, they have the potential to make a run deep into the tournament.
Worst Case Scenario: Close First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight Run
10. Penn State Nittany Lions
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Penn State Nittany Lions (19-14, 9-9 in the Big Ten)
First-Round Opponent: Temple
Penn State surprised nearly everyone, making a run to the Big Ten Tournament Finals against Ohio State. Although they were unable to win, the Nittany Lions did just enough to receive an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
Many people are a bit confused by the committees selection of the Nittany Lions, but they did have identical overall and conference records to Michigan State. And with Talor Battle leading the show, Penn State is capable of making another surprising run.
Battle, a senior guard, averages 20 points per game, and has had his best games against elite competition this year. Big man Jeff Brooks will be matched up with Lavoy Allen, which is an intriguing matchup.
An obvious chink in Penn State's armor is depth: They only go six men deep. If any of their regulars get into foul trouble, the team could have serious problems.
Worst Case Scenario: Double-Digit First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: First-Round Win
9. Tennessee Volunteers
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Tennessee Volunteers (19-14, 8-8 in the SEC)
First-Round Opponent: Michigan
Turbulence has been the theme of Tennessee's season. After winning early games against Villanova and Pittsburgh, the Volunteers dropped three straight to inferior opponents.
Bruce Pearl missed half of the SEC schedule, and even with his presence, the Vols remained incredibly inconsistent. A huge positive for the Vols is talent, which they do not lack whatsoever.
Scotty Hopson and Tobias Harris are both diverse scorers, and Cameron Tatum is a versatile wing. Point guard Melvin Goins has been shaky, having some great games and others in which he is invisible. Brian Williams is a bruiser in the post capable of playing with anyone down low.
A first-round matchup against Michigan will likely favor Tennessee, and if they can shut down Darius Morris, a victory will come their way. Playing Duke in the second round, however, will be a different story.
Worst Case Scenario: Close First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Close Second-Round Loss to Duke
8. Michigan Wolverines
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Michigan Wolverines (20-13, 9-9 in the Big Ten)
First-Round Opponent: Tennessee
Darius Morris is the unquestioned leader of the Michigan Wolverines. He puts up 15.2 points per game, while dishing out just shy of seven assists. The next two top scorers are both freshmen with little experience.
If Morris can get going early and cause the defense to focus on him, shooters Zach Novak and Stu Douglass will have opportunities to knock down a handful of threes. This will be important if Michigan plans on advancing past the first day of the tournament.
It is more likely than not that Michigan will be defeated by a deeper Tennessee squad. With Morris, however, they can pull off a win.
Worst Case Scenario: Double-Digit First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Second-Round Loss to Duke
7. Temple Owls
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Temple Owls (25-7, 14-2 in the A-10)
First-Round Opponent: Penn State
True point guard: Check. Versatile wings: Check. True big man: Check. The Temple Owls have all the ingredients to make a deep NCAA Tournament run.
The true point guard is Juan Fernandez, a junior averaging double-digit points and 4.1 assists per game. The wings are Ramone Moore and Scootie Randall, two capable players on both ends of the court. Lavoy Allen is the true big man, a 6'9" double-double threat. These four players, along with a strong and deep supporting cast, will have a great chance of making some noise in March.
As long as the Owls can contain Talor Battle, they will advance to play San Diego State in the second round. If they can pull off the second round upset, there is no telling how far Temple can advance.
That is, of course, until they play Duke again.
Worst Case Scenario: Close First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Elite Eight Run
6. Cincinnati Bearcats
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Cincinnati Bearcats (25-8, 11-7 in the Big East)
First-Round Opponent: Missouri
After starting off the season with an 15-0 record against a mostly-weak schedule, the Cincinnati Bearcats hit reality in the Big East. They did compile some nice wins, including two over Georgetown and one against both Louisville and St. John's.
They are able to win mainly because of their stifling defense. If they can slow down the pace against Missouri, they will advance into the second round. If Missouri plays at its pace, however, the Bearcats could be in trouble.
With no elite scorers and average depth, the Bearcats will want to slow down the game against Missouri. In the clutch, the Bearcats will likely call upon Yancy Gates to score, and if he is unable to do so, they could be in trouble.
Overall, the key will be defense.
Worst Case Scenario: First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Elite Eight Run
5. Arizona Wildcats
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Arizona Wildcats (27-7, 14-4 in the Pac-10)
First-Round Opponent: Memphis
The Arizona Wildcats were the elite of the Pac-10 this season, which really isn't saying much. Their leader, however, has had quite the season. Derrick Williams is projected to be a top pick in the NBA Draft, and has put up sensational numbers all year long.
Past Williams, however, the Wildcats are thin. No other player averages more than 9.6 points per game or 4.4 rebounds per game. The Wildcats also lack a true point guard, as Kyle Fogg leads the team with a mere 2.6 assists per game.
Looking beyond the numbers, Williams can be an absolute force, and can single-handedly win games for Arizona. After the first round, the Wildcats will be a mystery and will win or lose based on the play of their star.
Worst Case Scenario: Close First-Round Loss
Best Case Scenario: Sweet Sixteen Run
4. Texas Longhorns
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Texas Longhorns (27-7, 13-3 in the Big 12)
First-Round Opponent: Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Until a recent mini-slump, the Texas Longhorns were in contention for a No. 1 seed. The Longhorns have a few very impressive wins, including victories over Kansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Michigan State and North Carolina.
The talent that Texas has is undeniable, but most of their top players are young guns. Leading scorer Jordan Hamilton is just a sophomore, and key contributors Tristan Thompson, Cory Joseph and J'Covan Brown all have two or less seasons of collegiate experience.
Despite that, Texas does have some experience in both Gary Johnson and Dogus Balbay. The mixture of youth and experience could prove to be a favorable formula for the Longhorns in March.
If Hamilton plays within himself, Thompson is a force on the defensive end, and other key players step up, the Longhorns could make a run to the Final Four, and even cut down the nets.
Worst Case Scenario: First-Round Upset Loss
Best Case Scenario: Final Four Run
3. Connecticut Huskies
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Connecticut Huskies (26-9, 9-9 in the Big East)
First-Round Opponent: Bucknell
After an ever-impressive Big East Tournament Championship, the Connecticut Huskies enter March Madness hot. Perhaps, though, they may be too tired to be a serious threat.
Kemba Walker is the unquestioned leader of the Huskies, and he led them to an improbable five wins in five days in the world-famous Madison Square Garden. In doing this, he proved that he can guide his team through the elite and be victorious.
A key teammate of Walker is Alex Oriakhi, the only real big man that Connecticut has. If he gets into foul trouble, the aforementioned Mike Muscala will have his way against their otherwise-thin frontline.
The Huskies are the type of team that could make a deep run, but just as easily be upset in the early rounds. After the Big East Tournament, they likely don't have enough gas left in the tank to make a Final Four appearance.
Worst Case Scenario: First-Round Upset Loss
Best Case Scenario: Elite Eight Run
2. San Diego State Aztecs
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San Diego State Aztecs (32-2, 14-2 in the Mountain West)
First-Round Opponent: Northern Colorado
The Aztecs of San Diego State are a very deep, versatile and experienced team. Starting point guard D.J. Gay is a senior, leading scorer and rebounder is the multitalented Kawhi Leonard, and Malcolm Thomas, Billy White and Chase Tapley are important contributors.
The only two blemishes on San Diego State's record came against the BYU Cougars (or Jimmers), and they got revenge in the Mountain West Championship by defeating their rivals by 18 points. It is possible that BYU remains the only team to defeat San Diego State when the Big Dance is all said and done.
Leonard is legitimately one of the most talented players in the nation, and teammates Gay and White are elite college players. James Rahon is a sniper from deep, and he can make teams pay for double-teaming the post.
There may be some skeptics, but the Aztecs should be feared mightily by opponents in March. They could very well bring the NCAA title to the West Coast.
Worst Case Scenario: Second-Round Upset Loss
Best Case Scenario: Final Four Run/NCAA Champions
1. Duke Blue Devils
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Duke Blue Devils (30-4, 13-3 in the ACC)
First-Round Opponent: Hampton
The Duke Blue Devils are the reigning March Madness champs, and could repeat and keep the trophy in North Carolina.
Returning from last year's title squad are Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins, the Plumlee brothers and Ryan Kelly. New to the squad are Seth Curry and Kyrie Irving, who has recently said that he could return to play in the NCAA Tournament.
With Irving, Duke is the favorite to cut down the nets, but could do so even without him. Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are two potential All-Americans, and their supporting players know their roles very well. The Plumlees and Kelly are big post-presences, Curry can light it up from the outside, and Dawkins and Tyler Thornton are capable dribble-drivers.
Duke won last year's title, and still looks hungry to win another. Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler will want to go down in Duke history as elite players, and a title this year would seal their legacies in Durham.
Worst Case Scenario: Sweet Sixteen Loss
Best Case Scenario: Final Four Run/NCAA Champions
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