NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: Point Spread Predictions for the NCAA Tournament
Get ready for the best NCAA tournament in a very long time.
Parity has created a wealth of teams that could, on a given night, beat any other team in the bracket.
Speaking of which, have you started your bracket yet?
If you are doing the four play-in games, you better get with it!
Here is a brief breakdown of every First Four and first round game, with point spreads included.
(16) UT-San Antonio vs. (16) Alabama State
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UT-San Antonio should be able to handle Alabama State.
Alabama State has the worst record (17-17) of all 68 tournament selectees.
UTSA finished the season by winning its final six games, including beating its two conference division leaders, McNeese State and Sam Houston State, in the Southland tournament.
UTSA by four.
(12) UAB Vs. (12) Clemson
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These are the two most controversial picks in the play-in games.
Most of the Selection Sunday commentators didn't think that either team, especially UAB, should have been chosen.
Clemson is better prepared to enter the tournament. After beating Virginia Tech and Boston College, the Tigers just came up short against UNC in the ACC semi's.
Clemson by 5
(11) USC vs. (11) VCU
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The Trojans finished the regular season by winning five of their last six games.
They lost to Pac-10 regular season champ, Arizona, in the conference tournament semifinals.
VCU lost five of its last eight games, including three home games.
USC by four.
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(16) NC-Asheville vs. (16) Arkansas-Little Rock
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Arkansas Little Rock got into the tournament on a last-minute shot to win the Sun Belt tournament.
NC-Asheville has won six straight games, including bumping off Coastal Carolina.
NC-Asheville by three.
(1) Ohio State vs. (16) UT-San Antonio/Alabama State
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With Ohio State's opponent being determined in the play-in game between UTSA and Alabama State, we may not be able to preview the game.
However, it is safe to say that the Buckeyes will put away either of these teams handily.
Ohio State may be the most dominant team in the tournament. The Buckeyes can beat you in multiple ways.
Freshmen forward Jared Sullinger may be the best post player in the nation.
Ohio State by 27.
(8) George Mason vs. (9) Villanova
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George Mason's magical run in the 2006 NCAA tournament, where it beat UNC and Connecticut en route to the Final Four, started with an opening-round upset victory against Michigan State.
Villanova was 16-1 on January 15. Since then, the Wildcats have gone 5-10, including dropping their last five games going into the NCAA tournament.
George Mason by one.
(5) West Virginia Vs. (12) UAB/Clemson
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Another game where the opponent will be TBD.
West Virginia is a team that has seen good and bad times in the same season.
They have beaten Georgetown, Cincinnati, Syracuse, UConn and Louisville.
They have lost to Minnesota, Miami and Marshall.
While Clemson or UAB may have had their moments this season, the Mountaineers are, most likely, going to have the upper hand in this game.
West Virginia by six against either opponent.
(4) Kentucky vs. (13) Princeton
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Princeton comes off an emotionally-charged, last-second shot victory to win the Ivy League.
Kentucky dominated Florida, 70-54 in the SEC title game.
The Wildcats trio of freshmen (Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb) will be too much for the Tigers.
Kentucky by 14.
(6) Xavier vs. (11) Marquette
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Xavier continues to be a team that wins in the regular season and then advances well in the NCAA Tournament.
The Musketeers won 16 of their last 17 games before being upset by Dayton in the Atlantic 10 semifinals.
Marquette was the last of 11 Big East teams in this year's NCAA tournament. The Golden Eagles did beat Notre Dame, UConn and Syracuse, so they can definitely play with the Big Boys.
Xavier by one.
(3) Syracuse vs. (14) Indiana State
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ESPN analyst Jay Bilas says that Syracuse could be the surprise team of the tournament.
The Orange won six of their last seven games, having lost in the Big East semifinals to UConn in overtime.
Indiana State got hot at the right time of the season, and upset both Wichita State and Missouri State in the Missouri Valley Conference tourney.
The Orange shouldn't have much trouble here.
Syracuse by 11.
(7) Washington vs. (10) Georgia
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Georgia is fortunate to be in the tournament, having lost three of its last six games.
In the Pac-10 tourney, Washington was running and dominating games with its speed and athleticism.
If Isaiah Thomas continues to play like he did against Arizona, the Huskies could make a deep run.
Washington by five.
(2) North Carolina vs. (15) Long Island
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Even though the Tar Heels were beaten soundly by Duke in the ACC final game, don't think that the Tar Heels are faltering.
The Heels have the best frontcourt trio in the country with John Henson, Tyler Zeller and Harrison Barnes.
Long Island is making its first trip back to the tournament in over a decade.
Could be a blowout early.
North Carolina by 18
(1) Duke vs. (16) Hampton
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Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are peaking at the right time for Duke to make another Final Four trip.
Coach K thought that the Blue Devils victory over UNC in the ACC title game was the team's best game of the season.
Hampton will struggle just to stay close from the very beginning of this one.
Duke by 22.
(8) Michigan vs. (9) Tennessee
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Tennessee's season has been like a theme-park ride: lots of ups, downs and surprises (and not all of them good surprises).
The Volunteers have beaten Villanova, Pitt, Memphis and Vanderbilt this season. They have also lost to Oakland, UNC-Charlotte, and College of Charleston.
Michigan was 11-9 on January 22, before they went 9-3. Darius Morris and Tim Hardaway Jr. could cause the Volunteers some real headaches.
Pick 'em.
(5) Arizona vs. (12) Memphis
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Arizona played better than expected for most of the season, winning the Pac-10 regular season title and winning 27 games in the process.
Derrick Williams is one of the best power forwards in the game.
Memphis may be one of the only teams in the country that is younger than U of A. They have a talented trio of freshmen that have gelled at the right time.
Memphis coach Josh Pastner played and coached at Arizona before taking a position on John Calipari's staff. He was named the head coach after Calipari's departure.
Arizona by five.
(4) Texas vs. (13) Oakland
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If Oakland plays like it did during a stretch in December, the Longhorns need to look out.
They challenged Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan and beat Tennessee.
The Longhorns have not played their best ball in the last month, losing four of their last seven games.
This will be a showdown between two good rebounding teams. In the end, UT should prevail.
Texas by nine.
(6) Cincinnati vs. (11) Missouri
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Both of these teams opened 2010-11 scorching hot.
Missouri started off the year 14-1, but then played unevenly the rest of the season.
Cincinnati began the season 16-1 but then lost five of its next eight games.
Should be a great game!
Missouri by one.
(3) Connecticut vs. (14) Bucknell
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In winning the Big East tournament, UConn played as well as they have all season, winning five games in five days.
Bucknell started off 6-7, but then won 19 of its next 20 games.
Unfortunately for the Bison, Kemba Walker has found his early-season mojo, and is playing with an extremely high level of confidence.
UConn by 11.
(7) Temple vs. (10) Penn State
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Before losing to Richmond in the Atlantic 10 final, Temple had won 12 of its last 13 games.
Penn State made a strong second-half push, beating both Wisconsin and Michigan State in the Big Ten tourney.
Ramone Moore and Lavoy Allen create a formidable one-two punch.
Temple by two.
(2) San Diego State vs. (15) Northern Colorado
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Both San Diego State and Northern Colorado have had their best seasons in school history.
Northern Colorado is already establishing itself in Division I basketball with its first trip to the NCAA tournament.
San Diego State has won more games than any other SDSU team.
This will not be close.
San Diego State by 16.
(1) Kansas vs. (16) Boston U
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Kansas is one of the best offensive teams in the country (No. 1 in FG percentage, No. 2 in assists and No. 5 in points).
Marcus Morris, the Big 12 Player of the Year, is playing extremely well...and so is his twin brother, Markieff.
Boston University is almost on the other end of the spectrum. The Terriers are ranked 309th in FG percentage, 333rd in assists and 270th in points.
Could get ugly fast.
Kansas by 22.
(8) UNLV vs. (9) Illinois
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Illinois started with a lot of hope and expectations, opening the season going 13-3. Unfortunately, the Illini followed that up by going 6-10.
Demetri McCamey is a versatile guard who can make things happen all over the court.
If you subtract UNLV's two losses to BYU and the three losses to San Diego State, it would have a fantastic record.
UNLV did beat Wisconsin and Kansas State earlier in the season.
Because of Illinois' inconsistency, UNLV has a shot at advancing to at least the second round.
UNLV by one.
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Richmond
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Could this be the classic 5/12 upset?
Richmond brings a lot of skill and momentum into this first-round matchup.
Vanderbilt lost four of its last seven games.
But the Commodores' balance and scoring ability may be enough to pull this one out.
Vanderbilt by one.
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Morehead State
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In a David-and-Goliath battle of two Kentucky schools, Morehead State's Kenneth Faried, the nation's leading rebounder, has a chance to show the college basketball world how good he really is.
Louisville played well in the Big East tournament, falling in the final game against UConn.
Preston Knowles and Peyton Siva present a huge backcourt challenge...too big for MSU to handle.
Louisville by 10.
(6) Georgetown vs. (11) USC/VCU
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Georgetown point guard Chris Wright is expected back from injury, but if he isn't available, all bets are off.
The Hoyas have lost five of their last six games.
USC played well at the end of the season, and challenged U of A in its Pac-10 tourney game.
VCU has lost five of its last seven games going into its play-in contest with the Trojans.
Pick 'em.
(3) Purdue Vs. (14) St. Peters
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Purdue may be one of the "dark horse" teams in this year's tournament. By beating Ohio State less than a month ago, the Boilermakers have proven that they are a team to be taken seriously.
St. Peter's beat both Fairfield and Iona to win the MAAC AQ.
The Boilermakers should have no trouble putting away the Peacocks.
Purdue by 15.
(7) Texas A&M vs. (10) Florida State
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Florida State will be greatly helped if Chris Singleton, the Seminoles' leading scorer and rebounder, can return from injury. Their midseason victory over Duke proves that they can play at a very high level.
Texas A&M has played well throughout the season, beating Temple and Washington in pre-conference play. The Aggies also beat Missouri twice and Kansas State once.
Both teams are very comfortable with the game being in the 50's.
Could go down to the wire.
Pick 'em.
(2) Notre Dame vs. (15) Akron
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Notre Dame has a talented, unselfish and veteran ballclub that is playing at a very high level. Ben Hansbrough, the Big East Player of the Year, is poised for a superb senior-year send-off.
Akron beat the two best teams in the MAC (Kent State and Western Michigan) to grab the AQ bid.
Notre Dame by 12.
(1) Pitt vs. (16) NC-Asheville/Arkansas-Little Rock
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Even though the Panthers did not win the Big East tournament, they are still the class of the league and one of the best teams in the country.
They score well, are strong on the boards and defend well...do I need to go on?
Neither NC-Asheville nor Arkansas-Little Rock has the players to compete here.
Pitt by 24 against either team.
(8) Butler vs. (9) Old Dominion
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Last year's national championship runner-up Butler brings back a strong team, featuring Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack.
Old Dominion may be one of the best teams in the country that no one knows. The Monarchs won 13 of their last 14 games.
Butler's big game experience may not be enough to make a difference in this close one.
ODU by one.
(5) Kansas State vs. (12) Utah State
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Another 5/12 matchup.
Don't overlook Utah State. Just because the Aggies don't play in a power conference doesn't mean they should be taken lightly. Two of USU's three losses were to Georgetown and BYU.
Kansas State took the first half of the season to figure things out. In February, the Wildcats beat Kansas, Missouri and Texas.
Pullen is averaging 24 points in his last seven games.
Kansas State by two.
(4) Wisconsin vs. (13) Belmont
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This could be one of the most interesting first round games.
Wisconsin is always very deliberate in its approach to the game, controlling the ball and tempo.
Belmont has won 30 games, with three of its losses coming to Vanderbilt and two games against Tennessee.
If the Bruins can get the Badgers into a running game, who knows what could happen?
Wisconsin by four.
(6) St. John's vs. (11) Gonzaga
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St. John's has had a surprising run in 2010-11. The Red Storm have beaten Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, UConn, Pitt and Villanova.
Gonzaga, after a slow start to the season, has won 11 of its last 12 games.
St. John's needs to prove that it can win away from MSG.
St. John's by two.
(3) BYU vs. (14) Wofford
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BYU is still trying to figure out what kind of a team it will be without suspended leading rebounder, Brandon Davies.
Sure, Jimmer Fredette is good for 30, 40, or 50 points any time he steps on the court, but the Cougars need to be more than a one-person show.
Wofford, back in the tournament for the second year in a row, has won its last eight games entering into this opening round matchup.
As long as Fredette is healthy, this one should not be much of a contest.
BYU by eight.
(7) UCLA vs. (10) Michigan State
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Two classic programs.
Both had early season struggles. Both finished the regular season strongly.
UCLA looked flat in its loss in the Pac-10 tournament against Oregon.
Michigan State turned things on at the close of the season, and beat Purdue in the second round of the Big Ten tourney.
Michigan State by one.
(2) Florida vs. (15) UC Santa Barbara
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Before losing to Kentucky in the SEC title game, the Gators had won nine of their last 10 games.
UCSB finished fourth in the Big West and upset Long Beach State, the regular season champ, en route to getting the conference's automatic bid.
Florida's athleticism will be too much for the Gauchos.
Florida by 13.
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