March Madness 2011 Expert Bracket Predictions: A Guide to Winning Your Pool

When it comes to March Madness, I do more winning than Charlie Sheen can even dream of. My qualifications? Over the last 13 years, I have only had one year in which I either didn't win something or was in the running to win something up until the end.

That year for reference was 2000, when the Michigan State Spartans were led by the "Flintstones", Mateen Cleaves, Morris Peterson and Charlie Bell. 

My best year came the year before in 1999. I was informed before the championship game that I had already won the pool. When I asked if anyone had Connecticut winning the title instead of Duke (my pick), I was informed several people did, but that it didn't matter. 

That's what happens when you nail 28 out of 32 in the first round, 13 of the Sweet 16, seven of the Elite Eight, three of the Final Four and both of the teams in the Finals matchup. Connecticut did win that game if you were wondering. So I only managed a squeaker instead of lapping the field.
 
Filling out a bracket is both an art form and a science. The most important factor when filling out a bracket is to take into consideration the point system for the pool you are involved in.

Must Read: 2011 Tournament Predictions: Which Low Seeds Have the Best Odds?

Most pools follow the traditional 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 scoring system. That scoring system is for amateurs. The pros like myself use a weighted multiplier system. It uses those same numbers, but as multipliers of the seed number instead of the actual point total itself. 
 
For example, if you nail No. 1 seed Kansas over No. 16 seed Boston University, you only get one point (No. 1 seed x one point for first round games). However, if you call No. 13 seed Oakland upsetting No. 4 seed Texas you would get 13 points (No. 13 seed x one point for first round games). 

Frankly, that is the way it should be. Why should you get the same amount of points for getting a gimme game right as you would a huge upset? If you have the onions that Bill Raftery would be jealous of and take a low seed for several rounds or a mid seed to go really deep, you can rack up a huge point total. My picks are based on that type of scoring system, since that is the type of pool I am in.
 
Here are several other rules to follow. You should almost never consider taking a 16th or 15th seed to win. Check to make sure the selection committee didn't do anything crazy, and then pencil in each of the first and second seeds to win in the first round. 

I have never taken a 16th seed and only took a 15th seed once. That was in 2006 when I took Winthrop over Tennessee. Winthrop should have been at least a 12th seed that year and Tennessee a fifth seed at best. In the end, Tennessee needed a last-second shot to beat Winthrop.
 
Next, for close calls in the second round or later, don't necessarily take the team you think will win that matchup. I know it sounds crazy to say that. However, for close calls you should take the team more likely to be there. 

If you consider it a toss-up or close to a toss-up, look at who that team had to play previously. If it had a really tough matchup while the other team had a cake walk, take the team that had the cake walk. This strategy will do wonders for you, even though it may seem counterintuitive to pick a team you think is slightly more likely to lose in that particular matchup.
 
Employ the "hedge your bets" technique. Unless you absolutely love a certain low seed, don't pick it to win multiple rounds. Pick it to win round one, but pick against it in round two. This covers your butt in cases in which your upset pick doesn't come through for you.
 
Think with your head and not with your heart. You may love your alma mater, but be rational about its situation. This is the No. 1 problem that people run into when filling out their bracket. 

You can't afford to give away points because you didn't have the heart to pick your school to lose when you should have. On that same note, don't pick a rival school to lose a game it has no business losing simply because you hate it. 
 
These picks will not be 100 percent right. No one fills out a perfect bracket. I have found that if you can nail 75 percent of your picks in EVERY round and pick the champion correctly, you will finish in the top 10 percent of your pool. Unless you are in a winner-takes-all situation, top 10 percent should serve you well.
 
An important note for this year is the expansion from 65 to 68 teams. In effect, each seed has been slid down one spot from 11 seeds on down. This could lead to more upsets, since the lower seeds are therefore stronger than they would have been in a 65-team field. 

Also it makes things tougher to predict for certain games. We haven't had to deal with play-in games for anything other than a 16th seed before.
 
Now on to the picks.

First, the No. 1 vs. No. 16 seeds
 
No. 1 Ohio State over winner of Texas-San Antonio and Alabama State (I predict Texas-San Antonio as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 1 Kansas over Boston University
No. 1 Pittsburgh over winner of UNC-Asheville and Arkansas State (I predict UNC-Asheville as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 1 Duke over Hampton
 
Next, the No. 2 vs. No. 15 seeds
 
No. 2 North Carolina over Long Island
No. 2 Notre Dame over Akron
No. 2 Florida over UCSB
No. 2 San Diego State over Northern Colorado
 
Next, the No. 3 vs. No. 14 seeds
 
No. 3 Syracuse over Indiana State
No. 3 Purdue over Saint Peters
No. 3 BYU over Wofford (This game will be closer than you think though)
No. 3 Connecticut over Bucknell (If Kemba Walker has a bad game, Bucknell can win this game in a heartbeat)
 
Next the No. 4 vs. No. 13 seeds
 
No. 4 Kentucky over Princeton
No. 4 Louisville over Morehead State (Keep an eye on Kenneth Faried in this game though, as he could be Dennis Rodman-lite in the NBA)
No. 13 Belmont over Wisconsin (Tough draw for Belmont, but it is vastly underrated)
No. 13 Oakland over Texas (I have been praising Oakland all year and talking about how overrated Texas was. Dream matchup. Keith Benson is the best C prospect in college basketball)
 
Next, the No. 5 vs. No. 12 seeds
 
No. 5 West Virginia over winner of UAB and Clemson (I predict Clemson as the winner of that play-in game)
No. 5 Vanderbilt over Richmond (Don't be shocked to see Richmond pull off the upset though)
No. 5 Arizona over Memphis
No. 12 Utah State over Kansas State (A 12th seed wins every year. Utah State is rated criminally low as a 12th seed, as it is 17th in the Coaches Poll while Kansas State is only 23rd)
 
Next the No. 6 vs. No. 11 seeds
 
No. 6 Xavier over Marquette
No. 11 Gonzaga over Saint John's
No. 11 Missouri over Cincinnati
No. 11 Winner of USC and VCU (I predict VCU as the winner of the play-in game) over Georgetown
 
Next, the No. 7 vs. No. 10 seeds
 
No. 7 Washington over Georgia
No. 7 Texas A&M over Florida State
No. 7 Temple over Penn State
No. 10 Michigan State over UCLA
 
Next, the No. 8 vs. No. 9 seeds
 
No. 8 George Mason over Villanova
No. 8 UNLV over Illinois
No. 9 Old Dominion over Butler
No. 9 Tennessee over Michigan
 
Second Round Matchups, East Region
 
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 8 George Mason
No. 2 North Carolina over No. 7 Washington
No. 4 Kentucky over No. 5 West Virginia
No. 6 Xavier over No. 3 Syracuse
 
Second Round Matchups, Southwest Region
 
No. 1 Kansas over No. 8 UNLV
No. 2 Notre Dame over No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 3 Purdue over No. 11 VCU
No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 4 Louisville
 
Second Round Matchups, Southeast Region
 
No. 3 BYU over No. 11 Gonzaga
No. 9 Old Dominion over No. 1 Pittsburgh
No. 10 Michigan State over No. 2 Florida
No. 13 Belmont over No. 12 Utah State (I agonized over this pick)
 
Second Round Matchups, West Region
 
No. 1 Duke over No. 9 Tennessee
No. 2 San Diego State over No. 7 Temple
No. 3 Connecticut over No. 11 Missouri
No. 13 Oakland over No. 5 Arizona (Did I mention I love Oakland this year?)
 
Sweet 16 Matchups, East Region
 
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 4 Kentucky
No. 2 North Carolina over No. 6 Xavier
 
Sweet 16 Matchups, Southwest Region
 
No. 1 Kansas over No. 5 Vanderbilt
No. 3 Purdue over No. 2 Notre Dame
 
Sweet 16 Matchups, Southeast Region
 
No. 3 BYU over No. 10 Michigan State
No. 9 Old Dominion over No. 13 Belmont
 
Sweet 16 Matchups, West Region
 
No. 1 Duke over No. 13 Oakland
No. 2 San Diego State over No. 3 Connecticut
 
Elite Eight Matchups
 
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 2 North Carolina
No. 1 Kansas over No. 3 Purdue
No. 1 Duke over No. 2 San Diego State
No. 3 BYU over No. 9 Old Dominion
 
Final Four Matchups
 
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 1 Duke
No. 1 Kansas over No. 3 BYU
 
Championship Game
 
No. 1 Ohio State over No. 1 Kansas
 
If you use some or all of these picks to win your pool, feel free to send me something nice in the mail and throw rose petals at my feet.  In the rare chance these picks fall flat on their face, feel free to throw barbs and rotten tomatoes my way as well. 

Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below. I will try to reply to as many as possible.