UFC 128: The Case for Mauricio "Shogun" Rua over Jon Jones

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua heads in to his UFC light heavyweight title defense against Jon Jones in a strange position as a champion underdog at UFC 128.

Despite having the belt and having defeated a long list of high-profile opponents, Rua is +165 in UFC odds at betED, with Jones heavily favored at -205.

Jon Jones (12-1-0) is a fighter that lacks any real weakness and boasts a number of strengths. He is a strong striker with the longest reach in MMA. He has won 58 percent of his fights by KO/TKO. His wrestling very good and he adds in a solid BJJ background too.

But Jones has a lot of hype behind him and that means that all of the betting value is going to be on the Rua side.

The big reason why Jones is too hyped up to bet on is that he is just too fan-friendly.

All of his spinning elbows and kicks get fans on their feet and cheering and make great highlight reel material, particularly when they catch fighter off guard and lead to a thrilling finish.

He also does a good job finishing opponents, which is another great way to get fans on your side.

Just because Mauricio Rua has never faced a fighter like Jones before doesn’t mean Rua can’t form and execute a game plan for Jones. Remember, he beat another fighter who mystified previous opponents in Lyoto Machida.

Rua is going to have a game plan and we already know that he has the discipline to execute a game plan, which is a huge advantage in the octagon.

Expect Jones to go after Rua using his reach to inflict some punishment and possibly set up a takedown. However, Rua will show that he is a better technical striker than any of Jones’ previous opponents; he can take punches better than any of Jones’ previous opponents and he can hit harder than any of Jones’ previous opponents.

There are a lot of reasons to like Jon Jones and he will be a power in the light heavyweight division for a long time, but we have seen plenty of young fighters look unbeatable as they rise up through the division, only to be proven otherwise by a veteran like Rua.

He will most likely take some serious punishment doing it, but Shogun is going to be the first person to really test Jones’ chin, which is why I see this fight as a virtual toss-up between the two fighters and why all of the value is on the Rua line.