Pac-10 Basketball Tournament 2011 Bracket Predictions: Can UCLA Bruins Win?
It's the most wonderful time of the year.
That's right, folks! March Madness is officially under way now that the first automatic berths to the NCAA Tournament have been handed out and the teams of the Big Six conferences are having at each other in their respective tournaments before the Big Dance begins.
Out west, the Pac-10 Tournament looks to be a two-horse race this year between Arizona and UCLA, two resurgent squads that survived the fire of mediocrity over the previous two years to find themselves back atop the conference hierarchy.
Of course, it's entirely possible that another team, like Washington or USC, will give the top two their comeuppances and sneak their way into the field of 68. However, it's clear that UCLA and U of A are the favorites heading into quarterfinal play.
And with the tourney taking place in Los Angeles, it would seem perfectly reasonable to ponder the Bruins' chances of coming away with the school's fourth conference tournament title to go along with a whopping 30 regular-season crowns.
Hence, let's have a look at why the kids in Powder Blue and Gold will or won't nab that automatic bid come Saturday.
Will: Too Much Talent
1 of 11
Arizona may have finished the Pac-10 regular season as the conference's top dog, but UCLA is still the most talented team of the bunch.
From long, athletic wingmen like Tyler Honeycutt and elite man-to-man defenders like Malcolm Lee to skilled big men like Reeves Nelson and Josh Smith, no team in the league, except for perhaps U-Dub, can go toe-to-toe with the Bruins in terms of sheer precocity.
Which is rather remarkable considering that the core of this year's squad, aside from newcomers Smith and Lazeric Jones, is quite similar to that of last year's 14-18 edition.
Won't: Too Much Youth
2 of 11
The question remains, then: If the Bruins are so much more talented than everyone else in the Pac-10, why didn't they dominate the conference this year?
The answer? They're just too young and inconsistent.
UCLA was among the more maddening teams in the country this year, showing glimpses of greatness while playing to the level of their competition, for better or worse.
No one on the current team has the kind of postseason experience that players like Darren Collison and Arron Afflalo once boasted, making the current Bruins team among the least battle-tested of any Ben Howland has coached since landing in Westwood.
And that lack of experience has, in part, contributed to the dramatic disparity between the team's highs and lows.
The Bruins' play this season has fallen into a startlingly wide range, from a blowout win at home over the Wildcats one week to a frustratingly close defeat on the road against the Huskies the next.
Will: So Many Players Capable of Having a Big Game
3 of 11
Along the same lines as the talent argument, UCLA has too many players capable of taking over a game NOT to win the Pac-10 tournament this year.
While teams like Arizona rely on solitary stars like Derrick Williams, the Bruins have the luxury of being able to lean on a number of players who have shown the ability to put together prime-time performances.
In fact, the Bruins boast four players with double-figure scoring averages (Honeycutt, Lee, Nelson and Smith) and a fifth (Jones), who pours in 9.5 points and a team-best 3.6 assists per game.
Having so many guys willing and able to carry the team to victory bodes well for the Bruins' chances of coming away with three victories over a grueling three days at the Staples Center.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Won't: No Single Leader
4 of 11
Then again, there's always the problem of having too many players who can take control, as that suggests that no one actually has.
Without a single senior on the roster, the Bruins have struggled to find a vocal leader with enough experience to hold the team's attention and keep them level-headed through good times and bad.
Malcolm Lee would seem to be the best fit, as he is the Bruins' de facto elder statesman, though he tends to lead more by example.
Zic Jones is certainly vocal and old enough to be that guy, but his lack of experience at UCLA as a third-year transfer has hindered his ability to take a firm grasp of the leadership reins.
Reeves Nelson has shown that he's not shy to speak his mind, though he would seem to be a bit too young and volatile to be a steadying presence.
As such, the Bruins may find themselves in trouble once again if the going gets tough in the midst of the Pac-10 Tourney and the team is without that one guy who can bring everyone together in times of crisis.
Will: Josh Smith Is a Beast
5 of 11
If size is what matters in the pursuit of tournament victory, then the Bruins should pretty much be assured the crown thanks to the unmistakable presence of freshman sensation Joshua Latrell Smith.
The 6'10", 305-pound center from Kent, Wash. has improved his on-court play by leaps and bounds since the season's origin, transforming from a hefty kid without an idea of how to use his sheer mass to an absolute force to be reckoned with down low.
All in all, there's not a single player on any other team in the conference who can physically handle the gargantuan Smith, which means that UCLA should have a sizable advantage in the paint against any opponent they may face at the Staples Center this weekend.
Won't: Smith's Foul Trouble
6 of 11
Of course, the danger of relying too heavily on Josh Smith, aside from the fact that he's still just a freshman, lies in the difficulty that he still has staying out of foul trouble.
It's not entirely fair to fault Smith too much for his fouling woes, as the Pac-10's referees, most of whom are flat-out awful, simply don't know how to properly account for a guy of Smith's unusual size and strength.
That being said, the onus is still on Josh Smith to adjust his play to the whistle if need be.
He's certainly gotten much better at it as the games have passed, but he still requires quite a bit of development to overcome to the level the Bruins need him to on the way to a Pac-10 Championship.
Will: The Staples Center as a Home-Court Advantage
7 of 11
Yes, the Bruins don't call the Staples Center home; that privilege belongs to Pauley Pavilion, or rather will once again in 2012, when the old arena's renovations are scheduled to be completed.
Nonetheless, playing its games at the best venue in Los Angeles is a significant advantage to UCLA, rivaled only by USC, which plays its home games less than two miles from the home of the Lakers and Clippers.
Thus, the Bruins should, theoretically, have the second-largest contingent of supporters at the Pac-10 Tournament, at the very least.
This will be a huge boost for a young, erratic team that needs whatever added morale it can muster if it's going to win three games in three days.
Won't: Malcolm Lee May Be Limited
8 of 11
The prospect of winning in front of a home crowd may be rendered irrelevant if UCLA doesn't have its most important player healthy and ready to play.
Lee suffered a minor cartilage tear in his left knee in the Bruins' overtime victory at Washington State this past Saturday, leaving him quite limited in practice this week.
Nonetheless, Coach Howland has insisted that Lee will play in the Pac-10 Tournament, as the injury supposedly won't get any worse if played on, though Lee's effectiveness may be jeopardized to an extent.
The Bruins may find the road a bit more difficult if their most experienced player and best perimeter defender can't contribute in a meaningful way this weekend.
Will: Coach Howland Knows How to Get It Done
9 of 11
With or without Malcolm Lee, there's no doubt that UCLA still sports the most battle-tested coach the Pac-10 has to offer.
Ben Howland already has three regular season and two conference tournament titles to his credit, suggesting that his latest group can pull off a three-for-three performance this weekend because he's "been there, done that."
No coach in the league today has a better understanding of preparing a team for back-to-back-to-back games quite like Howland, which gives the Bruins a significant advantage over teams in a conference replete with less experienced coaches.
Won't: Not Much Quality Depth
10 of 11
But getting back to the actual players, Howland doesn't really have a ton to work with beyond his starters.
The Bruins' reserves consists of junior guard Jerime Anderson, who has underachieved over his career but has come on strong in recent weeks; sophomore forward Brendan Lane, who is a solid contributor from time to time but gets pushed around on defense; freshman forward/center Anthony Stover, who makes Bruins fans cringe every time he touches the ball; and freshman guard Tyler Lamb, who has shown flashes of tremendous talent but has yet to have his "aha!" moment.
Certainly, UCLA could do worse than the bench it currently has, but with so many games and so little time, an average bench might not cut it if the team is serious about grinding it out at Staples and taking home the tourney title on Saturday.
Prediction: Bruins Should Come Away Victorious
11 of 11
Assuming Malcolm Lee's injury doesn't keep him from being at least semi-effective, the Bruins should be more than able to take their rightful place atop the Pac-10 once again.
Of course, there's still a long way to go until UCLA can bask in the glory of an automatic NCAA tournament berth.
First up is Oregon on Thursday, most likely to be followed by Washington on Friday if the Bruins make it past the Ducks.
And, if Ben Howland and his group can finally figure out how to beat the Huskies in their third try, they will likely come up against either Arizona or USC in the conference title game, both of whom the Bruins defeated over the latter part of the season.
All in all, the Pac-10 Tournament should make for some exciting basketball, especially for fans of the Powder Blue and Gold.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
