NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: 25 Mistakes to Avoid When Filling Out the Bracket
The 2011 NCAA tournament is upon us, which means that practically everyone in the country is going to sit down with an empty bracket and attempt to fill it out perfectly.
It's every college basketball fan's dream to select each and every game correctly, but that dream is not easily turned into a reality. In fact, I've never even heard of a perfect bracket ever being filled out.
Yet people still try every year. The FBI has estimated that roughly $2.5 billion is set forth in wagers about the tournament throughout the United States.
But in each March Madness pool, only one person can win.
There are certain mistakes that amateur bracketologists make year after year as they pore over the now-68 teams that will engage in March Madness, ranging from ignoring seedings to overemphasizing certain stats.
Read on for 25 mistakes that you should not make.
Don't Use a Pen
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First of all, when you fill out a bracket, don't just complete an online version. Take the time to print one and fill it out. It's so much more fun to track your picks on a tangible piece of paper.
I've always highlighted the correct games and crossed out the incorrect ones with pen. It just makes it look cleaner and more real. You don't want to see that much pen on your bracket.
Speaking of pens though, please do not fill out your bracket in pen. You should make changes because there are always going to be things that sway you.
Write out your initial picks in pencil so you can use the eraser on the other end to keep it looking clean.
If you want to switch over to pen once you have your picks finalized, that's fine. But please, don't use a pen on the first go-around.
Don't Forget to Pick a No. 12 Seed
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There is always an upset in one of the four games between No. 5 seeds and No. 12 seeds.
No logical explanation exists for this, but it somehow always seems to happen. The selection committee just loves to put some of the sleeper teams in at the No. 12 spot while the No. 5 seeds are generally reserved for those teams that are good but not great.
You don't want to be the one person in your pool that doesn't pick one of the trendy upsets and falls behind by what could eventually be an insurmountable margin.
This year, either pick the winner of UAB and Clemson over West Virginia, Memphis over Arizona, Richmond over Vanderbilt, or Utah State over Kansas State.
Don't Pick All Four No. 1 Seeds to Make Up the Final Four
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2008 was the only year in March Madness history where all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four. That season, North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas and UCLA all advanced to the semifinals before Kansas eventually beat Memphis for the title.
Chances are, each of the top teams will not make it to the Final Four this year. We've lacked truly dominant teams in college basketball this year as many squads have attempted to establish themselves as elite programs before falling to slightly less-talented teams.
Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh are all great teams, but they won't all make it to the Final Four.
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Don't Leave All the No. 1 Seeds out of the Final Four
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Now although all four No. 1 seeds will not make it to the Final Four, don't expect all four of them to fall in the opening rounds of the tournament.
Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh and Duke are No. 1 seeds for a reason. Likewise, many of the lower-seeded teams are lower-seeded teams for a reason.
In fact, all four No. 1 seeds have fallen before the Final Four just twice, once in 2006 and once in 1980.
Hedge your bets and pick one of the top seeds to make it to the Final Four.
Don't Pick a No. 1 Seed to Lose to a No. 16 Seed
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It's never happened.
It's not going to happen this year. Please don't think that it's going to.
Picking the No. 1 seeds in the first round just gives you free points. Well actually, not picking the No. 1 seeds in the first round gives your opponents a free head-start.
Seriously, shy away from the No. 16s.
Don't Pick the Team Everyone Else Is Picking
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Part of winning a March Madness pool is making picks that no one else does. It's great that you successfully picked a team to make it to the Elite Eight, but if every other person does as well, than you really haven't gained anything at all.
Last season, Kansas was the undisputed favorite, and so, many people in the country picked the Jayhawks to win it all. Thanks to Ali Farokhmanesh and Northern Iowa, Kansas was eliminated in just the second round and all those people who shied away from the top overall seed were rewarded.
You have to take some risks and since the top overall seed normally doesn't win, this "risk" shouldn't be too big.
Don't Pick Teams Without Stars
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March Madness is the biggest stage in the world for college basketball stars. It's their opportunity to have one shining moment.
But usually the players that step up their games have already been playing well throughout the season. It's rare that a player just comes out of nowhere and takes over with all the spotlight pointed directly at them.
Because of that, it's generally not a good idea to have a star-less team going too far. If you haven't heard of a single player on the squad and you follow college basketball closely enough that you're reading this article, you probably shouldn't pick that team to advance more than a few rounds.
Don't Forget to Do Your Research
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While this isn't entirely necessary, it's unbelievably helpful to even do a bit of perfunctory research.
At the very minimum, read a quick paragraph about each team in your local newspaper and get an idea of who the good players are and what the team's reasonable expectations for the tournament are.
Don't go into this competition completely uninformed.
I've seen plenty of people take home the prize at the end of the tournament without doing anything at all, but I've seen far more pore over statistics and reading material to try and improve their shot at winning.
Now for the shameless plug: You should at least come back to Bleacher Report and check out the first-round preview I'll be posting soon.
Don't Be Afraid to Go with Your Gut
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Even though some research is necessary, don't be afraid to go with your gut on some of the picks.
If you think Gonzaga is going to pull off a few upsets and make it to the Elite Eight but you have absolutely no logical explanation for why you feel that way, don't be afraid to go ahead and pencil in the Bulldogs. And please note that I said "pencil in" and not "pen in."
Gut feelings exist for a reason and a lot of the time, they're correct.
You'll kick yourself all week if you didn't pull the trigger on the inexplicable first-round upset because you let yourself shove aside your gut.
No one wants that.
Don't Forget to Look at Where Games Are Played
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It's up to you to decide how much stock you place in where the games are played, but don't completely ignore the tournament locations all together.
For example, if you think the Texas Longhorns are going to buck their trend of losing early in the tournament and advance to the Final Four, it may be beneficial to you to know that the Final Four will be played out in Houston, Texas.
That may be the factor that pushes the Longhorns over the edge in your mind.
While this isn't all-important, do take a look because you probably don't want to be taking a questionable East Coast team to pull off an upset on the West Coast.
Don't Forget to Look at Kenpom.com
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For those of you that don't know about kenpom.com, please go check it out. Immediately.
Ken Pomeroy is a statistical mastermind that has put together a wealth of college basketball information on his site.
You can see his rankings (all steeped in numbers of course), how teams rank in terms of defensive and offensive efficiency, strength of schedules and more on the home page.
Then you can check out individual players and teams. The team pages are absolutely unbelievable, containing everything from win probability graphs for each game to myriad advanced stats about the squad.
Once more, go to the site!
Don't Base Too Much on Mascots
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Back when I was in high school, we had a grade-wide pool every year. In 2003, one of my friends picked Syracuse to win it all because they were the Syracuse Orange and oranges are healthy.
Seriously, that was his only reason. But he was the only one to pick Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse to win it all and he took home the pride and glory associated with having the best bracket.
While that's a great story, it's one that doesn't happen too often.
It may be fun to pick the teams with the cool mascots, but it's really not a great strategy.
Don't Forget to Look at Style of Play
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When you're reading about the teams involved in the tournament, try to figure out how they play.
Some teams like to run the ball up and down the court as though they were coached by Mike D'Antoni, but teams like Wisconsin like to play as slow as molasses, as the saying goes.
Some teams pride themselves on their defense while others accept the fact that they're going to allow a ton of points and play to score a lot at all costs.
You need to know things like that in order to be a more successful prognosticator.
Don't Pick a Champion Who Lost Early in a Conference Tournament
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Pittsburgh, here's looking at you.
In order to win enough games to be crowned national champions, you have to go on a lengthy run of successful games.
The conference tournaments are essentially a preview of March Madness. The teams that play well and prove that they can play under pressure on little rest tend to do better when the Big Dance rolls around.
If you're eliminated in the early rounds of your conference tournament, no matter how tough the draw was, that's simply not a good sign for your chances in the big tournament.
Don't Forget About the Mid-Majors
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Tournament teams from the Pac-10, ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East are generally very good. There's no denying that.
But don't discount other teams simply because they don't play in the power conferences. The elite mid-majors can run with the big boys, too.
Teams like San Diego State and BYU shouldn't be thought less of simply because they call the Mountain West Conference home.
Don't make the mistake of looking at conferences too much when you're filling out your bracket.
Don't Let Name Recognition Sway You Too Much
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Not to pick on UCLA too much (even though they are a bit overrated), but I'm going to use the Bruins as an example here.
UCLA may be a traditional basketball powerhouse, but that doesn't mean that the true blue- and gold-clad young men are worthy of your picks this year.
Don't let the big names of the past fool you into picking them in the present. March Madness is about here and now.
It may be a good idea to pick a past champion to win it all, but not an undeserving one.
Don't Pick Cinderella Stories Too Often
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There may be a Cinderella story or two this year, but they're considered fairy tales for a reason. They're unexpected.
Even if a team like the 2006 George Mason squad can go on a magical run, what are the chances that you pick it?
This is one of those cases where the risk is simply not worth the reward.
Don't Pick a Double-Digit Seed to Make the Elite 8
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Speaking of George Mason, their 2006 run was one of the handful of Cinderella stories that didn't strike midnight before the Elite Eight.
Davidson in 2008 was another example but those stories are so memorable because they're so rare.
Plenty of double-digit seeds make their way to the Sweet 16, but that's where most finally taste defeat. Don't make the mistake of expecting anything else.
If you do nail a surprising run to the Elite Eight, good for you. But I'll be staying away from picking any of them.
Don't Worry About Road Records
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A lot of people are quick to dismiss teams like the Kentucky Wildcats simply because they've been subpar on the road.
But remember, so too was Missouri in 2009 and the Tigers made the Elite Eight that year.
Then Duke last year was considered to be shaky on the road since that's where all five of their losses came. But we all know what happened there.
Instead of looking at bad road records, why not look at the incredible home records that those teams usually possess? That's just as valid.
Don't Just Look at Records
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Speaking of records, don't think about them too much.
It was far easier for San Diego State to rack up 32 wins in the Mountain West than it was for Kansas to earn 32 victories in the Big 12. Yet the two teams have identical 32-2 records. Do you really think those two teams' records say the same thing?
Now, a different example.
The North Carolina Tar Heels went 26-7 during the regular season and the ACC tournament, but they went on a nine-game winning streak before falling to Duke in the ACC Championship Game.
But then you have the 27-7 Arizona Wildcats. Even though the record is better, do you really want to take them right now since they've lost three of their last seven games?
Records are important, but don't forget to take a look at how they were put together.
Don't Ignore Margin of Victory
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One more problem with records is that they don't show how much each team won by.
Do you really think that a one-point nail-biting win is better than a 25-point blowout of the same team?
Absolutely not.
The teams that have proven they can win games by large margins of victory have to be considered superior to those that have had to consistently eke out tough wins.
Make sure you take a look at the scores of each game and not simply the outcomes.
Don't Forget to Look at Injuries (and Suspensions)
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The college basketball season is long and grueling, and some players aren't going to be dressed for each and every game.
Chris Wright's hand may keep him out for a little while longer and that's something that you should absolutely keep in mind. Also, check back and see how Kyrie Irving's toe is doing since he was warming up during the ACC tournament.
Then there are issues like the one that faces BYU. Can the Cougars really play up to their lofty seeding without Brandon Davies?
Make sure you find out whether or not all the key players will suit up for the teams you pick.
Don't Forget to Talk About It with Everyone
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Part of the fun of March Madness is going around and talking to everyone about your picks.
We love to compare brackets and see where we think other people are messing up. In my opinion, it's the single most fun sporting even to talk about. Period.
It's a blast to try prediction the next George Mason or Davidson. When else do you get to convince other people that they're just wrong?
Don't make the mistake of being a loner during this process. It's more fun if you talk about it.
Don't Let Your Friends Convince You That You're Wrong
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But, when you're talking to those friends, stay true to your picks.
Sure, one of your friends may inform you of something you didn't know, but unless that piece of information is something like "Oh my gosh did you hear that Jared Sullinger, David Lighty and Jon Diebler all broke their legs while celebrating the Big Ten Championship win?" try not to change your pick.
You made them for a reason, after all.
Don't Forget to Have Fun
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Remember that filling out your bracket is not a life-or-death process.
It's meant to be fun and enhance our tournament experience. Accept the victories along with the defeats and rejoice in the upsets you pick. But also, keep in mind that it isn't the end of the world if you get a game wrong.
At least, I really hope it isn't because you're going to miss one. I know I am.
But that doesn't stop us from trying.
Have a great time filling them out and enjoy!
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