March Madness 2011 Predictions: 25 Bold Predictions for the 2011 NCAA Tournament
Part of March Madness is being bold. If you aren't willing to put yourself out there and take some risks, you probably aren't going to come out on top of your pool.
But at the same time, it is possible to be too bold. You don't want to take a No. 16 seed to win even one game (unless it's one of the opening four games in Dayton) and you probably don't want to pick a No. 15 seed either.
Instead, you want to be more reasonably bold.
Read on for an example of how to do so.
1. Belmont Will Knock Off Wisconsin
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So here we're going to start off with my absolute boldest first-round pick.
Belmont is one of the most talented teams in the country, coming it at No. 18 on Ken Pomeroy's rankings (check them out at kenpom.com).
They've broken the 30-win barrier and although they haven't beaten an elite team yet, they've dominated almost every single team they've faced. Winning a conference championship game by 41 points has to count for something.
Wisconsin is a great team, even though they're coming off an inexplicable 36-33 loss to Penn State, and should be pretty evenly matched with Belmont.
I could see this game going either way, but my gut tells me to pick Belmont.
2. Richmond and Utah State Will Be the Two No. 12 Seeds to Win
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It's just a bracket truth that at least one No. 12 seed will upset a No. 5 seed.
This year, I think that two such upsets will occur.
Richmond is riding an impressive seven-game winning streak, no easy feat in the Atlantic 10, and has the defensive ability to shut down John Jenkins and really throw the Commodores off their game.
As for the Aggies of Utah State, they're ranked 23rd in the nation and have an RPI of 15. How in the world does that make them deserving of a No. 12 seed? Kansas State, on the other hand, is a bit overrated and might not even keep this one close.
3. Frank Martin Goes Even More Ballistic Than Normal
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Frank Martin is one of the most mercurial coaches in the entire country.
His stares, glares and shouts are simply terrifying. I'm pretty sure that the head coach of Kansas State has made me quiver and shake with fear from the friendly confines of my own living room even though I knew I was perfectly safe.
Can you imagine how ballistic he's going to go if his Kansas State Wildcats are losing big to the Utah State Aggies in the first round?
Since I think that's going to happen, I may have to avoid watching the end of this game so I don't get too scared.
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4. Long Island Keeps It Close
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The Long Island Blackbirds have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the entire country. In fact, the Blackbirds scored the fourth most points in the NCAA this season, so they can clearly score with the best of them.
North Carolina is a young team that is very reliant on Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes, two of the better freshmen in the country. The Tar Heels have consistently fallen behind early and then attempted to catch up in the second half, a strategy which came back to bite them in the ACC Championship Game against Duke.
I'm expecting Long Island to come out strong and open up a surprising double-digit lead. But in the end, North Carolina will prevail in a nail-biter.
5. Bruce Pearl Coaches Just One More Game at Tennessee
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After receiving a suspension at the beginning of SEC play, Bruce Pearl had to know that he was operating on a bit of a shorter leash.
When Tennessee loses in the first round to the Michigan Wolverines, which I think they will, Pearl's reign as the head coach of the Volunteers could very well come to an abrupt end.
His son, Steven Pearl, is also a senior and will be playing for the last time this tournament, so the Pearl dynasty could come to a complete halt.
6. Belmont Will Make It to the Sweet 16
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You read my reasoning for picking Belmont to win its first game back on the opening slide.
Now, I'm getting even bolder and picking the Bruins to advance to the Sweet 16. According to my picks, Belmont would be faced with a difficult matchup against Utah State to advance, but the upset-minded Bruins would get the victory.
Unfortunately, that's where the run comes to an end, because I can't see them taking down Pittsburgh.
7. All Four No. 7 Seeds Will Lose in the First Round
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In the West Region, Penn State is a team looking to have its Big Ten momentum carry over into the Big Dance while Temple hasn't had the greatest second half to their season.
Then we move on to the Southwest Region, where Florida State should be getting Chris Singleton, their leading scorer and arguably the best defensive player in the country, back. Texas A&M struggles to score at times and will have no chance at putting the ball in the basket against the second-best defensive team in the nation.
In the Southeast Region, Michigan State started the season ranked No. 2 and has fallen dramatically, but still has a lot more talent than UCLA. If Durrell Summers can finally get it going, he and Kalin Lucas could make a deep run in the tournament.
That leaves us with just the East Region. Georgia has the talent to beat anyone in the country, but so does Washington. Georgia has been especially prone to second-half collapses, and Washington has been inconsistent all year until their run through the Pac-10 conference tournament. My head tells me to pick Washington, but I go to Georgia, so I have to pick the Bulldogs.
8. Purdue Will Have the Largest Margin of Victory in the First Round
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Yes, the margin of victory (which could be as high as 40 points) will be greater than that produced by any of the No. 1 or No. 2 seeds.
St. Peter's doesn't even have a single player over 6'7" and they pride themselves on defense. The Peacocks aren't even in the top 200 in terms of offensive efficiency, so they have no chance to score in bunches against a defensively sound Boilermakers squad.
I'd be willing to bet that JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore combine for more points than every single player on St. Peter's.
9. Chris Singleton Will Have a Bigger Impact Than Chris Wright When He Returns
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Two injured players will likely be making their way back to the court in the Southwest Regional.
One is Florida State's leading scorer and top defender, Chris Singleton, who is recovering from a foot injury. The other is Chris Wright, one of the leaders of Georgetown. Wright is hoping that his hand is fully healed.
Because Singleton can do it all, I expect for him to make a bigger impact in his return, despite being the lesser-known of the two players.
It doesn't hurt either that Florida State is going to pull off an upset against Texas A&M while Georgetown could lose to either Southern Cal or VCU.
10. BYU Will Make the Sweet 16
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A lot of people are ready to say that BYU's magical season is over thanks to the suspension of center Brandon Davies.
Not so fast, I tell those people.
Jimmer Fredette is still an incredible player and the rest of the team isn't too shabby.
A first-round matchup against Wofford isn't too tough even though the Terriers will be hoping to shock the world and pull of the upset. There just isn't enough talent on the No. 14 seed to take down Fredette and the Cougars.
Then in the second round, BYU would face either St. John's or Gonzaga. My guess is that the Red Storm will be the team to win the opening-round game, but without D.J. Kennedy, who suffered a torn ACL in the Big East conference tournament, this is not the same team that became known as the premier giant killers.
Gonzaga on the other hand, is at full strength and on the rise, but don't let the name fool you. These are not the same Bulldogs of the 2000s.
BYU can take either team the distance and advance to the Sweet 16.
11. Ohio State, San Diego State, Purdue and Florida Will Make Up the Final Four
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Making up the Final Four this year in Houston, Texas, will be the Ohio State Buckeyes, San Diego State Aztecs, Purdue Boilermakers and Florida Gators.
Ohio State has the toughest path to the Final Four despite being the top overall seed. San Diego State is going to have a tough road too as they'll need to get past both Connecticut and Duke if the bracket plays out according to form.
Purdue may not have trouble in the first two rounds, but beating Notre Dame and Kansas in consecutive weeks is no easy task. Then there's Florida.
Florida is my pick simply out of attrition. I don't think that the Gators deserve a No. 2 seed at all, and if you look back through my recently published articles, you'll find that this is a very consistent view. But who in the Southeast is going to beat them?
I have no confidence in Pittsburgh because I don't think that Jamie Dixon's perennial March Madness underachievers can string together enough wins to make it to the Final Four. Gonzaga is overrated and St. John's can't advance too far without D.J. Kennedy on the floor.
Do you really think BYU can really make it past elite teams without Brandon Davies? Jimmer Fredette has to have one off game eventually.
Michigan State has a ton of talent, but what indication do we have that the Spartans will suddenly put it all together for the first time this season?
That leaves who? Belmont? I love the Bruins but there is no way I'm putting them in my Final Four. So Florida it is.
And trust me, I'm not happy about that. I've tried to make myself change it and just can't.
12. Big Ten Fans Will Love the Championship Game
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In my bracket, I have the Ohio State Buckeyes making good upon their selection as the first overall seed and winning the 2011 NCAA tournament by beating the Purdue Boilermakers 70-62 on April 4th.
What Big Ten fan isn't going to love that game?
13. Harrison Barnes Will Elevate His Stock to the Top
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Even though I said earlier that Long Island would keep the game close against the Tar Heels, I think that North Carolina will eventually pull out a win.
This will most likely be thanks to some heroics from Harrison Barnes, who will put up a magical performance in both the first and second rounds before falling to Syracuse in a Sweet 16 matchup.
Barnes started out the season as a consensus No. 1 pick in the 2011 NBA draft but quickly failed to live up to the hype. He's picked up his game in recent weeks, though, and is ascending back up the draft boards.
This tournament will push him back to the top.
14. Kyrie Irving Will Return but Hurt Duke
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It's appearing as though Kyrie Irving's big toe may actually be healing in time for the tournament, especially since he isn't denying that fact and he was seen in sweats warming up with the team during the ACC conference tournament.
But, if Mike Krzyzewski is as great as a coach as I think he is, he won't let this happen.
If Irving came back, Duke would be unbelievably loaded and, talent-wise, the Blue Devils would be the clear favorites to win it all. But do you really want to move Nolan Smith back off the ball when he's been playing so well with it in his hands?
I think that Irving's return would mess this team up more than it would help them in the short run. When the short run could possibly mean losing to another elite team and having the season come to a conclusion, do you really want to take that chance?
15. Jimmer Fredette Will Go for 50
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Jimmer Fredette is an amazing scorer.
Duh.
That was probably the single most obvious sentence I've written all year.
But without Brandon Davies he's going to have to take over the scoring load even more. After scoring 52 points in the conference tournament, do you really have any doubt that he could do so again in the first round against Wofford?
Truthfully, though, that's not really what I was going for in this slide. I'm actually predicting that Fredette takes 50 percent of the Cougars' shots in the game. He currently takes 37.8 percent of his team's field goal attempts, which leads the nation. That number is only increasing now that Davies has been out for a little while.
When he scored 52 points, he took 47 percent of the team's field goal attempts. Fifty is a possibility.
16. Ben Hansbrough Makes People Forget About Tyler
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Tyler Hansbrough was a crucial part of North Carolina's great basketball team, and everyone still remembers the high-energy Tar Heel.
Now it's his brother's turn to become a household name.
Ben Hansbrough has averaged 18.5 points, 4.3 assists and 3.9 rebounds per game during his senior season for the Fighting Irish. He's their single most important player.
After he puts on a show in the first week of play, people will think of Ben before Tyler when they hear the name Hansbrough.
17. Kenneth Faried Will Record a 20-20
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The best player in the country that no one has heard of, Kenneth Faried is now the NCAA's all-time leading rebounder. He surpassed Tim Duncan this season and is drawing countless comparisons to players like Dennis Rodman.
Faried is actually averaging 17.6 points and 14.5 rebounds per game for Morehead State this year.
He's already put up three 20-20s this season and has been close on a number of other occasions. Trying to prove himself against Louisville and elevate his draft stock, Faried is going to put on a show during his first-round game.
18. Jon Diebler Knocks Down 20 Threes in the Tournament
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It helps that I think he'll have six games to do so, but Jon Diebler is going to knock down at least 20 three-pointers during the Ohio State Buckeyes' inevitably deep tournament run.
He was absolutely on fire during the Big Ten conference tournament and the end of the regular season. I mean, Diebler (or Thriebler if you prefer) hit 10 of his 12 long-range shots against Penn State on the first day of March.
With Sullinger pounding away inside, kick-outs to Diebler for open looks are inevitable. He's going to hit them too.
19. Jared Sullinger Is the East Region's MVP
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Speaking of Jared Sullinger, the Ohio State freshman is undoubtedly the best player in the East Region.
The big man averaged a ridiculous 17.2 points and 10.1 rebounds per game this season and didn't slow down at all when Big Ten play started.
I'm not sure there's a single team other than North Carolina in the East that has a realistic shot at keeping Sullinger in check.
20. Kawhi Leonard Is the West Region's MVP
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Another relatively unknown player, San Diego State's star forward is one of the best basketball players in the nation.
Kawhi Leonard averaged 15.4 points, 2.5 assists and 10.7 rebounds per game leading up to March Madness. He'll prove that he wasn't simply feasting on a lower level of competition when he gets to play against, in my opinion, Northern Colorado, Penn State, Connecticut and Duke in the West Region.
Leonard is an absolute stud capable of putting up big numbers. Yes, numbers bigger than those that Nolan Smith produces.
21. Chandler Parsons Is the Southeast Region's MVP
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The SEC Player of the Year is an absolute matchup nightmare. Chandler Parsons is big and lanky enough to grab every offensive rebound in sight but he can also shoot the ball proficiently from the outside and can dribble past even the quickest guards.
Unless Jimmer Fredette goes absolutely crazy in the first few rounds and averages something like 50 points per game, Parsons' consistency and lengthier run in the Big Dance will prove to be superior.
I still think Florida is way overrated, but Parsons isn't.
22. JaJuan Johnson Is the Southwest Region's MVP
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Over the course of the regular season and the one game he played in the Big Ten conference tournament, JaJuan Johnson averaged 20.2 points, 0.9 assists and 8.2 rebounds per game.
The lanky scorer is going to have absolutely no trouble at all getting pas the defenders of St. Peter's. Especially since not a single Peacock stands over 6'7".
He should have an impressive enough performance in that game to lock up this title right then. But it won't hurt that he'll have another great one in a second-round matchup against either Southern Cal, VCU or Georgetown. Oh, and then he'll have two more games to prove himself if all goes according to my predictions.
Johnson is an absolute stud.
23. The Tuesday and Wednesday Games Will Be Unwatched
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In previous years, no one really watched the play-in games. Now, no one is going to watch the games that are played on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Part of the problem is that the brackets aren't giving them their one spaces. Instead, they're relegated to a single line in the brackets and both teams are included with a slash in between their names.
That just doesn't inspire people to watch the game.
It's even worse that sites like ESPN don't even require you to pick the games.
They're real tournament games, but they aren't treated as such.
Similarly, they won't be watched like real tournament games are.
24. There Will Be No Real Cinderellas
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The bracket isn't really set up in a way that's conducive to Cinderella stories this year.
The main reason for that is that instead of having one of two dominant teams, the bracket is filled up with a ton of very good but not great teams.
Teams like Washington, Georgia, Missouri, Richmond, Southern Cal, Utah State, Belmont, St. John's, Gonzaga or Michigan State could advance to the Sweet 16, but it would be a serious stretch to include even a single one of those teams in your Elite Eight.
But hey, it's called March Madness for a reason.
25. There Will Be No Perfect Brackets
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Well, that may not be entirely true, because I'm hoping that my bracket is the perfect one.
But let's be real here. I'm going to get at least one game wrong and you are too.
We all hope that we've finally mastered the process of predicting college basketball games in the month of March, but there's a reason that there has never even been a single verified perfect bracket.
It's just really hard to get every single game right.
But that won't stop us from trying.
Good luck to everyone and don't forget to have fun as you fill out your own bracket!
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