Pac-10 Basketball Tournament 2011: Predicting the NCAA Runs of Each Pac-10 Team

If you love Pac-10 basketball, the next four days will be heaven on earth for you.

Starting with the first game tomorrow night, which pits Stanford against Oregon State, all 10 conference teams will be laying it on the line to earn a right to play in the 2011 NCAA tournament.

Four teams (Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona State) have zero chance of being invited to the Dance unless they win the Pac-10 tournament. Not likely.

Three other teams (USC, Cal and Washington State) probably need to win their first two games in the conference tournament if they are going to have a chance to Dance.

The top three teams (Arizona, UCLA and Washington) are thought to be "in" already, but how they do at the Staples Center over the next four days may determine what seed they get in the NCAA tournament.

Here's a prediction on what kind of a run the top six Pac-10 teams could have in the 2011 NCAA tournament.

6. Washington State Cougars

The Washington State Cougars, by their own doing, might have to win the conference tournament just to be selected for the NCAA tournament.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has WSU in the "Next Four Out" group. This means that, in JL's opinion, there are at least four teams in line to get into the Dance ahead of the Cougars.

Regardless, if Ken Bone's Cougars do "make it," they might still have to "get into" the tournament through winning a play-in game.

In a play-in game, WSU would most likely be matched against a team such as Michigan State, Boston College, Virginia Tech or Colorado.

Even though the Cougars did beat Gonzaga early in the season, Baylor right before Christmas and Washington twice in conference play, I'm not sure that Washington State will make it into the field of 64.

5. Cal Bears

The Cal Bears very well may be in the same boat as Washington State. They probably need to win the conference tournament in order to get invited to the 2011 NCAA tournament.

Cal did finish the regular season strongly, winning its last four games (UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford).

Also, like Washington State, even if Cal won the conference tournament, it might still have to come into the NCAA tournament through a play-in game.

Cal might have a better chance against its likely play-in opponents. The Bears can play physical or can go moderately up-tempo.

However, if they make it to a play-in game and win, they would then be a No. 12 seed, matched against a No. 5 seed, teams like Arizona, West Virginia, Xavier and UConn.

While it is a long shot for Cal to even make it into the field of 64, it would most likely make a first-round exit.

4. USC Trojans

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 13: Guard Marcus Simmons #20 of the USC Trojans stands on the court during their game against the UCLA Bruins in the Pacific Life Pac-10 Men's Basketball Tournament at the Staples Center on March 13, 2009 in Los Angeles, Californi

USC senior guard Marcus Simmons (pictured) needs to bring everything to the Staples Center this week that he used this year to win the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year award.

While USC may not need to win the conference tournament to get into the Dance, it most likely needs to make it to the championship game.

Like Cal and WSU, if the Trojans make it in, they will probably be in a play-in game on Tuesday.

They have the best chance among them, WSU and Cal of winning their play-in game.

At that point, it will all depend on which USC shows up: the one that beat Texas and Tennessee early in the season and UCLA, Washington and Arizona each once during conference play...or the one that lost to Rider and Bradley in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Classic at the beginning of the year.

3. Washington Huskies

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SYRACUSE, NY - MARCH 25: Matthew Bryan-Amaning #11 of the Washington Huskies reacts in the first half against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the east regional semifinal of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at the Carrier Dome on March 25,

Washington may be the Pac-10 sleeping giant.

In late January, the Huskies were 15-4 and ranked in the Top 25.

Since then they are 5-6, with their last two losses coming at home. 

They still have the pieces necessary to make a decent run.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning has been a force, at times, this season.

Isaiah Thomas can score and distribute with the best.

But right now, Washington needs to rediscover its up-tempo, run-and-score mojo.

The Huskies are at their best when they are pushing it whenever possible.

If they can re-establish the energy they had earlier in the year, they can win a game or two in the NCAA tournament.

If they continue to play as if they hadn't slept all week, they could get bounced hard in the opening round.

2. UCLA Bruins

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NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 24: Reeves Nelson #22 of the UCLA Bruins keeps the ball in play against the Villanova Wildcats during their preseason NIT semifinal at Madison Square Garden on November 24, 2010 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Halfway through the 2010-11 season, UCLA was 9-6 and on the verge of sliding into another disappointing season.

Then it rattled off 10 wins in its next 11 games, and UCLA was back in the conference discussion and on the national radar.

It is very likely that UCLA will go into the NCAA tournament with anywhere from a No. 6 seed (if it wins the Pac-10 tourney) to a No. 8 seed (if it gets knocked out by the winner of the Oregon-Arizona State game).

Those are interesting seeds because you play against some teams that have been really good at certain points of the season.

For example, if the Bruins end up a No. 6 seed, they might face a team like Clemson, Boston College or Colorado, who have all knocked off some very good teams during the season.

UCLA should win its first-round game. However, if the Bruins make it to the second round, they could unfortunately end up playing a No. 2 seed team like Notre Dame, Texas or UNC, which might lead to an early exit.

1. Arizona Wildcats

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

LAS VEGAS - DECEMBER 20: Kyle Fogg #21 of the Arizona Wildcats shoots a free throw against the UNLV Rebels at the Thomas & Mack Center December 20, 2008 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Derrick Williams and Sean Miller enter the Pac-10 tournament fresh off receiving their conference Player and Coach of the Year awards, respectively, as well as winning the conference regular season title.

Don't expect the 'Cats to rest on their laurels.

Miller has been a man on a mission since becoming the Wildcats' head coach not even two full years ago.

He has brought in talent through some masterful recruiting, and he has developed that talent into a deep, team-first roster.

While some teams might take a laid-back approach to their conference tourney, I think Miller and the 'Cats want to do everything they can to put U of A basketball back on the elite-level map.

Kyle Fogg (pictured) could play a key role in how the 'Cats do this postseason. If he gets on fire, which he definitely can do, he will provide a great second part to U of A's one-two punch that begins with Williams.

If the 'Cats make it to the conference tourney championship game (or win it), they could be looking at a No. 4 seed, which is quite a bit better, historically, than a No. 5 or a No. 6.

Even though the 'Cats are still a young team, they very well could make it to the Sweet 16, and then it's all about matchups and how you come out to play that day.