Duke Basketball: Why Blue Devils Will Capture the ACC Tournament

It was a bit of a rough finish to the 2010-11 regular season for the Duke Blue Devils Men's basketball team. 

After all, a pair of losses in their final three games, one to Virginia Tech and one in the season finale to hated rival North Carolina, ultimately cost the Dukies the ACC regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament.

Most assumed that the loss signaled that Duke's conference tournament hopes had gone up in smoke, as well, as the Tar Heels took the top seed from the Blue Devils, and look poised to take home the ACC tournament crown. 

But, let's not be too hasty in crowning the Tar Heels ACC tournament champs; in fact, here are eight reasons why the Blue Devils will leave Greensboro with a trophy:

8. The History of the Rivalry

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

DURHAM, NC - FEBRUARY 09: Andre Dawkins #20 of the Duke Blue Devils celebrates with teammate Nolan Smith #2 after defeating the North Carolina Tar heels 79-73 during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 9, 2011 in Durham, North Carolina. (Ph

Here's the funny thing about rivalries: if they're good ones (and Duke-North Carolina is one of the best), they have a nasty habit of trading victories. 

These two teams have never met three times in a season, but typically, here's what you can expect between rivals who meet that many times in a season:

One team (in this case, Duke) takes home the opening game of the series. Then, in the re-match, the vanquished team makes adjustments and snags a victory. 

However, in the rubber match, it is the newly vanquished team, in this case the Blue Devils, who make adjustments and come away with the win. 

Does it hold true every time? No; but it's certainly something that merits consideration. 

7. The Tournament's Nature

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

DURHAM, NC - FEBRUARY 09: Head coach Roy Williams of the North Carolina Tar Heels against the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 9, 2011 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Here's the fun part about this time of year in college basketball: nothing ever goes the way people think it will.

No where has that been more true than the ACC tournament over the years. It's much more common to see an underdog in the ACC title tilt than it is to see both of the league's top teams in the final that season, which means somewhere along the way, somebodies got to lose. 

How can we be sure it will be the Tar Heels? That's simple...

6. North Carolina's ACC Tournament History

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 11: Zachery Peacock #35 and Derrick Favors #14 of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets guard Tyler Zeller #44 of the University of the North Carolina Tarheels in their first round game in the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the

The Tar Heels have never been huge fans of the ACC tournament, and it shows in their performance in it in recent years.

Since 1999, Duke has won nine of the league's 12 conference tournaments, and appeared in the finals 10 times.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has netted just two titles in that span, while appearing in the tournament finals four times. 

The Tar Heels tend to take this tournament a lot less seriously than Duke does, particularly under Roy Williams, who prefers to use it as a March Madness tune-up more than anything else. 

5. Florida State Can't Beat Duke Again

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

BUFFALO, NY - MARCH 19: Chris Singleton #31 of the Florida State Seminoles looks on towards the end of the game against the Gonzaga Bulldogs during the first round of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at HSBC Arena on March 19, 2010 in Buffalo, N

Florida State was one of the three ACC teams who scored a win over the Blue Devils, a nice 66-61 shocker in Tallahassee, which has made them a popular pick to upset Duke in the conference semifinals, assuming the Seminoles make it that far. 

But, given Florida State's road woes this season, they might not have as much of a chance as people think.

Six of the Seminoles' nine losses have come outside of the Tucker Center, and several of those (at Auburn, at Maryland, at Virginia Tech) were to teams who finished the year with a worse record than Florida State did. 

Given that the ACC tournament is in Greensboro, North Carolina, and not Tallahassee, Florida, the Seminoles don't have quite the chances they did the first time around. 

4. Duke Is Fantastic in Greensboro

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 14: Kyle Singler #12 Duke Blue Devils reacts against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the championship game of the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum on March 14, 2010 in Greensboro, North Carolina.

Cameron Indoor might have one of the best home court advantages in the country, but for the Blue Devils, Greensboro Coliseum, the site of this year's ACC tournament, is almost as good. 

The Blue Devils are 38-9 under Mike Krzyzewski at the Coliseum, and have won 12 straight at the venue, their last loss coming to Maryland in 2004. 

In other words, don't bet against the Blue Devils in this one, given their history. 

3. Kyle Singler

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

DURHAM, NC - FEBRUARY 23: Lavoy Allen #24 of the Temple Owls tries to stop Kyle Singler #12 of the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 23, 2011 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

The forward came back to school for his senior season to win another national championship, but things have not gone according to plan for him this year. 

Singler has hit the skids in recent weeks, averaging just 15.3 points over the last 10 games of the season, as his shooting has gotten inconsistent. 

But, just because he lost the touch for a while doesn't mean he can't find it again. If he gets hot, the Blue Devils should run away with the conference tournament.

2. Experience

Mitchell Layton/Getty Images

COLLEGE PARK, MD - FEBRUARY 2: Miles Plumlee #21 of the Duke Blue Devils takes a jump shot during a college basketball game against the Maryland Terrapins on February 2, 2011 at the Comcast Arena in College Park, Maryland. The Blue Devils won 80-62. (Phot

The biggest advantage that the Blue Devils hold over the field in this year's tournament is the fact that they've all been here before. 

With Kyrie Irving out, the Dukies don't have a single freshman in their top seven minute grabbers on the roster.

Meanwhile, fellow favorite North Carolina is rife with Dickie V's Diaper Dandies, with three freshman in the top seven minute grabbers on the team. 

When the rubber hits the road, the Blue Devils' experience will prove a difference maker down the stretch. 

1. Nolan Smith

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

DURHAM, NC - FEBRUARY 09: Nolan Smith #2 of the Duke Blue Devils against the North Carolina Tar Heels during their game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on February 9, 2011 in Durham, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

Smith has blossomed into a bona fide superstar this season for the Blue Devils, a go-to scorer who can carry the team through shooting funks, averaging over 20 points per game this season. 

Smith is the kind of player you can rely on in the clutch, the guy everyone knows can take the last shot, and someone with the skills and experience to lead a team through a tricky tournament to nab the ACC title. 

He's the biggest reason the Blue Devils should like their chances in the ACC tournament, and as long as he doesn't collapse, he gives them the chance to do great things.