For the first time, Whatifsports.com is providing simulation predictions for the Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten conference basketball tournaments. We hope to expand and include other conference tournament predictions next season. Let us know what you think of our latest prediction venture and if you would like to see more conferences added in 2012. Contact information can be found at the bottom of each article. Thank you.
It's not often a conference can claim their tournament's semifinal could theoretically feature higher ranked teams than the national Final Four. Yet the Big East can make such a proclamation during the 2010-11 season with minimal objection or condemnation.
With nine teams already taking residence in the AP Poll heading into the conference's competition at Madison Square Garden this week, bracketologists currently foresee the uber-league sending 11 teams to the Big Dance. To give that figure illumination, the SEC, ACC and Pac-10, all historical powerhouses, are projected to push 13 squads combined.
Although depth remains the league's greatest asset (to note: Jim Calhoun's Connecticut Huskies, ranked No. 21 in the country, are a No. 9 seed in the Big East tourney), there are a few teams that rise above the proverbial fray. The Pittsburgh Panthers finished as regular season champs with a 15-3 conference mark, highlighted by wins against Syracuse, Connecticut and a season-sweep of Villanova. Featuring one of the best backcourts in the nation with guards Ashton Gibbs (16.4 ppg) and Brad Wanamaker (11.9 ppg, 5.1 apg), Jamie Dixon's Panthers should be in line for a No. 1 seed in next week's NCAA tournament with a decent showing in New York.
College Basketball Features
The Fighting Irish of Notre Dame are another team with No. 1 seed aspirations. With the departure of All-American Luke Harangody, many prognosticated the Domers to dwell in the bottom half of the Big East standings. But thanks to the breakout play of Ben Hansbrough (18.5 ppg, 4.2 apg) and sharpshooting of Tim Abromaitis (15.2 ppg, 41.9 from behind the arc), the Irish finished the season with a 25-5 record, accentuated with victories at Pittsburgh and an overtime thriller against Louisville.
Speaking of the Cardinals, Rick Pitino's troops could entice the Selection Committee with a solid run this week. Louisville has an impressive resume of its own, with victories against Pittsburgh and Syracuse to its' credit. Senior guard Preston Knowles (14.5 ppg) paces the Cardinals, with help from Kyle Kuric (10.8 ppg) and Peyton Siva (9.9 ppg, 5 apg).
The three aforementioned teams head into this week's festivities as tournament favorites. Yet, as anyone who has observed Big East basketball can attest, each team poses as a formidable foe. With an overabundance of aptitude throughout the league, predicting a conference champion can become an arduous task. Thanks to the WhatIfSports college basketball simulation engine, we were able to project who would be cutting down the nets in the Garden on Saturday night. We simulated each tournament game 101 times and generated each team's chances of winning (W%) and average score.
No big surprises in the first round, as Marquette's win should solidify an at-large berth. The USF-Villanova matchup will be the one to watch on Tuesday as Jay Wright and the Wildcats finished the season in a free fall, losing nine of their last 14 ballgames. On the opposite end of that spectrum lies Seton Hall, which enters the tournament with some momentum thanks to upsets over St. John's and Marquette.
Although they have the higher seed, Georgetown, sans guard Chris Wright, over Connecticut, is our first shocker of the tournament. Villanova looks to be back on the right track after disposing of Cincinnati, and West Virginia, fresh off their dramatic win against Louisville on Senior Day, is sent home early thanks to Jimmy Butler and the Golden Eagles. And you're dreaming if you think the Red Storm is losing in front of a surely raucous and partisan Garden crowd.
All of the top seeds take care of business, with Pittsburgh squeaking out a W against a feisty Hoyas squad. It will be interesting to see if the Cardinals show any lingering effects from their epic collapse in Morgantown, as well as how Syracuse, a notoriously shaky away group, handles the hostile environment of a pro-St. John's arena.
Louisville wins the rematch against Notre Dame, while Pittsburgh regains its form after a scare from Georgetown in their opening game. Should it come to fruition, a Cardinals-Irish matchup would be an engaging showcase of divergent philosophies, as Louisville's up-tempo, fast-paced pattern stands in contrast to Notre Dame's infamous "burner" approach.
When these teams met two weeks ago, the game earned nationwide recognition for the premature celebration of a Cardinal cheerleader, allowing the Panthers a desperation heave to force double overtime. Discounting cheerleader interference, Louisville claims the Big East crown with a 71-70 win over Pittsburgh.
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