Cup Drivers Roll Into Sin City: What Are the Odds of a Win in Round Three?
NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers head into the third race of the season with the reality that wins carry more importance than they did and bad finishes can be harder to shake off.
Under the new points system, the winning driver gets 43 points and three bonus points for a win. Leading a lap is worth one point and leading the most laps is worth one point.
The new system replaced the Latford system that was in place since 1975 in which the driver who finished last got 34 points.
Even Jimmie Johnson became aware of how serious a bad finish could become as the season plays out. He stated: "The worse you finish, the bad days are going to be tougher to recover from."
Now the drivers in the top series of NASCAR head to the 1.5 mile Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Kobalt Tools 400.
They have been to the high banks of Daytona, the one-mile Phoenix track that drives like a short track and now to the size track often deemed cookie-cutter or intermediate that makes up a good portion of the series schedule.
The intermediate tracks appear similar, but actually have unique differences that play well to various drivers. One unique feature is progressive banking, which is evident at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The season is off to a retro feel with the No. 21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane Ford from Wood Brothers Racing in the winners circle with young Trevor Bayne at Daytona.
Jeff Gordon, four-time Cup champion, finally found his way back to Victory Lane after a 66-race win drought at Phoenix International Raceway.
It's early to see a trend, so certain drivers are still expected to pursue their winning ways. Surprises lurk around each track and this season we may see some shakeups in what has become the predictable.
Based on history, let's take a look at drivers who should do well at LMS with the odds of them winning being pretty darn good. They are in no particular order.
Remember: "It's Vegas baby!" In Las Vegas anything can happen.
No. 1 Jimmie Johnson
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Jimmie Johnson, the driver with five consecutive NASCAR Sprint Cup titles, is a four-time winner at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He has four top-five and five top-10 finishes at the track where his average is 10.0.
With one of the best averages of all the drivers at this track, Johnson's ability to smoothly slip his way through traffic to the front makes him the odds-on favorite to win in his Lowe's Chevy.
Johnson knows that pit mistakes and wrecks can prove very costly under the new points format. Going into this race, he is 13th in the point standings.
No. 2 Jeff Burton
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Jeff Burton drives the No. 31 Caterpillar Chevrolet for Richard Childress Racing. He has won twice at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Burton has a 9.9 average at the 1.5-mile track with a record that shows five top-five and eight top-10 finishes.
Currently Burton ranks 32nd in the point standings because of a rare engine failure and wrecks. Going into the next race you can bet RCR has solved the engine problem which was heat-related at Daytona.
Burton is ranked the lowest in points of the four drivers at RCR which makes him very hungry for a win to improve his position.
No. 3 Kyle Busch
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Kyle Busch drives the No. 18 M&M'S Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing. He is, without a doubt, running for the NASCAR Sprint Cup title this year.
Currently he sits atop the point standings and finished second to Jeff Gordon at Phoenix after winning the Nationwide and Camping World Truck Series races there.
At Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Busch has one win, three top-five and four top-10 finishes which give him a credible average of 11.7.
Busch is from Las Vegas and would like to win in his hometown, but this is a driver who wants to win at every track.
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No. 4 Carl Edwards
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Carl Edwards drives the No. 99 Aflac Ford Fusion for Roush Fenway Racing. He currently sits 12th in the NASCAR Sprint Cup point standings.
Edwards has one win, one top-five and two-top 10 finishes for an average of 12.7 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The Ford FR9 engines look to be potent this season and if this driver can manage to stay out of trouble, he will be one to finish at or near the front for sure.
No. 5 Jeff Gordon
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Jeff Gordon finally grabbed the win at Phoenix International Raceway with his No. 24 Drive To End Hunger Chevrolet.
It had been 66 races since his last win, though he had some good finishes last season. Gordon said: "It was like winning for the first time all over again."
After doing a burnout he described as "lame," he was pumped about the win, but looking toward the stands he said: "The fans still standing up at their seats was so, so cool."
Gordon has 83 career wins and four Cup titles. At the Las Vegas track he has one win, six top-five and seven top-10 finishes with an average of 13.3
Gordon finds his relationship with new crew chief, Alan Gustafson, to be a good move. The momentum of last week's win just may push the driver, who ranks fifth in the point standings, to another win.
No. 6 Matt Kenseth
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Matt Kenseth may be in stealth mode with his No. 17 Crown Royal Black Ford out of the Roush Fenway Racing stable.
His record at Las Vegas Motor Speedway shows two wins, five top-five and six top-10 finishes with an average of 11.7.
Kenseth would not be the most obvious pick to win, but he has a good record at this track and the power of the FR9 engine can't hurt.
No. 7 Mark Martin
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Mark Martin is in his final season with Hendrick Motorsports in the No. 5 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet. Currently he is right behind teammate, Jeff Gordon, in sixth place of the point standings.
Winning has always been important to this veteran driver, but he really wants to go out of the first 26 weeks of racing with a lot of wins to his credit and a chance at the Cup title.
Martin has one win at Las Vegas with six top-five and 10 top-10 finishes making his average 12.8. He has been running strong so far this year and a good finish in the Kobalt Tools 400 is expected.
No. 8 Tony Stewart
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Tony Stewart pilots the No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet. Currently he sits in third place in the NASCAR Sprint Cup point standings.
Stewart is showing that the hard work his Stewart Haas Racing team did over the offseason is paying off with healthy runs.
He has never won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, but he has four top-five, seven top-10s and an average of 14.8.
Stewart has a record of 20 wins at intermediate tracks with 94 top-five finishes. Look for the two-time NASCAR Sprint Cup champion to be a strong contender for a win at LMS.
No. 9 Kurt Busch
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Kurt Busch seems to have found new momentum with his switch to the No. 22 Penske Shell/Pennzoil Dodge.
He won the Bud Shootout and one of the Gatorade Duels at Daytona. The Las Vegas native is currently ranked second in the point standings behind his brother, Kyle Busch.
Though he has yet to win at his hometown track and only has two top-10 finishes, the 2004 Cup champion has 22 career wins with 15 of them coming on intermediate tracks.
Look for Busch and the No. 22 to show his good runs are the real deal this season.
No. 10 Kevin Harvick
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Kevin Harvick drives the black No. 29 Budweiser car for Richard Childress Racing. Last season he finished third in the final point standings.
Heading to Las Vegas, he ranks 22nd in points. RCR lost two engines in the Daytona 500, with Harvick being one of the unlucky pair and Jeff Burton the other.
Harvick does not have a win at LMS, but his record shows three top-five, four top-10s and an average finish of 12.8.
Look for the driver of the Budweiser Chevy to rebound and head to the front. Winning is foremost on his mind as he seeks to be a contender for the title once again and perhaps be the one that dethrones Jimmie Johnson.
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