Duke Basketball: 10 Reasons They Could Be Early Outs in The NCAA Tournament
As another week of turmoil in college basketball has come and gone, Duke is back in the number one slot in both of the college basketball polls this week. But are they good enough to stay there?
Sure they've spent the most time there this season, but exactly how good are they. There are some things that make me think we could be seeing Duke bounced from the big dance before the crowning of queen is announced.
Miles And Mason Plumlee
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The Plumlee brothers have been a disappointment this season. They've showed their talent and potential plenty of times over the season, but rarely at the same time and usually when they weren't really needed as a force in the game.
Miles has managed to lose his starting spot and hasn't played more than 13 minutes in the past two games. He hasn't really contributed and it is evident that he may be losing favor with Coach K as he's consistently losing playing time. Dare I say, he's not the recruit people thought he was.
Mason, on the other hand, still has all the potential in the world. He still leads the team in rebounds, but his offensive play hasn't quite reached the level that everyone expected and wanted out of him. His athleticism is out of this world, but he should show it more.
The Absence Of Kyrie Irving
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This has been an issue all season, as Irving only played in eight games. Ultimately, Duke is a much better team with Irving as the starting point guard. You can't replace a talent like Irving, even with an All-American like Nolan Smith. However, the difference between early-season Duke and conference-play Duke is vastly different.
Irving's court vision opened everything for the Blue Devils. Nolan Smith could work on being more of a two instead of the combo guard that he has become this season. Kyle Singler probably would have had a better season with a pass-first point guard running the show. Without him however, Duke is like a car missing a window; they still are still in a position to their job adequately, but they aren't as shiny and good-looking as they could be.
The Pressure Of Repeating
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It's very difficult to win six straight games in the NCAA tournament. It's even more difficult to win twelve straight games in the tourney. For some players it might not be a big deal, but it definitely changes the mentality. For young players like Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins who didn't play or didn't play much during last season's run, the pressure could diminish their effectiveness.
This could also be a very big issue if Duke finds themselves losing during one of their games. Knowing that you could be going home after an epic run towards a second title can be intimidating. Again, I'm not saying players like Smith and Singler are going to be affected necessarily, but the chance of a role player screwing up is a lot higher under pressure than not.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
Their Tendency To "Go Big Or Go Home"
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St. John's ran the defending national champions out of the gym. The Red Storm were obviously the better team on that day and Duke just looked beaten from the second they showed up on the court. When they finally looked like they were into the game, they were too far behind to even come back. North Carolina did the same thing during the first half of their game at Cameron Indoor.
The Blue Devils were just ineffective from the field and obviously frustrated. Their lack of consistency in these games does bring up a concern that this could happen in the tournament, which would obviously be a bad thing for Duke.
Recent History
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As recent history has shown, it is very difficult for a defending team to make another run to the title. With the exception of Florida after their 2006 championship, no defending champion has made it past the Sweet 16 since Michigan State in 2001. Four have made it to their third game before losing, but two have lost in the second round, and two have failed to make it all together (2008 Florida, 2010 North Carolina).
While the Sweet 16 might not be considered early in the tournament, it definitely isn't late for a team of Duke's caliber.
The Lack Of A Post Offense
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The lack of a central post man isn't always a problem, but it could be with Duke. They've managed to work around it this season by leaving the lane open for the slashers like Smith and Singler, but if they happen to be super ineffective one game, it could spell trouble.
In the past few years, every team to win a championship has had a solid post player that could will the ball into the basket (Horford, Aldrich, Hansbrough, etc). Duke really broke the mold without a super big man, although to Brian Zoubek's credit, he was a monster rebounder.
The lack of a central player means that if Duke encounters a guard heavy team, they'll have to find a way to get by them without exploiting their lack of size, which may be easier said than done.
Nolan Smith's Emergence As A POY Candidate
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Nolan Smith has shown that he is easily a first-team All-American this season and could possibly be named Player of the Year if he keeps it up. However, his stupendous play has come while Duke has been having a harder time winning some games. Correlation isn't always causation, but it is another concerning trend.
No one is going to say they don't want Nolan Smith playing like he is. However his ability to take over games may be a slippery slope. Kyle Singler hasn't been nearly as effective as of late on the offensive end and his added production may be missed if this keeps up.
Their Reliance On The Three Pointer
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Duke takes a lot of outside shots. Admittedly, they usually hit them. Their 38.9 percent as a team is tied for 18th in the country, but when the Blue Devils go cold, things get ugly.
For instance, Duke only shot 5-26 from long range in the game against St. John's and we all know how that went for them.They also shot below average in their games versus Florida State and North Carolina. One led to a loss, the other they barely recovered from.
Lack Of Home Court Advantage
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Cameron Indoor Stadium is easily one of the hardest places to play in the country, but the fact that Duke plays there so frequently may have spoiled them. Duke has only played six true road games this season and they've lost two of them.
They lose so few games at home, it's obvious they'd have a great record when they play three times as many home games as away games. They won't be playing on the road in the NCAA tournament, but they won't be playing at home either so the playing field may be leveled a little bit. Or at least it will be a little bit quieter.
Everyone Wants Them To Lose
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Duke definitely has a target on their back because they are the defending champions. However, for some unknown reason, everyone really wants them to go down just because they are Duke. The Blue Devils are possibly the most unanimously hated team in the nation. If you aren't for them, you're probably against them.
With that being said, if they aren't playing near Durham, they'll probably be in a somewhat hostile environment. Like I said earlier, it's hard to win six games in a row. We'll see if Duke can do it while playing in moderately hostile territory.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
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