UFC Predictions: Anderson Silva-Georges St. Pierre: Handicapping a Superfight

Silva.

St. Pierre.

The Spider.

GSP.

Two Champions.

Two Legacies.

Two Warriors.

One Winner.

For literally years now, the Internet has been abuzz over The Fight To End All Fights. Even though this collision for the ages has not actually been (and may never be) set, MMA fans can't help but speculate over a superfight between middleweight champion Anderson Silva and welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre.

But really, though, who can blame us? Two belt holders, each indisputably at the pinnacle of their sport, facing off while both are in their primes.  Ever wondered how Michael Jordan would have fared against LeBron James? What about Tiger vs. Nicklaus?  Federer vs. Sampras?  Ali vs. Tyson? 

Plug in whatever matchup you like, but if Georges St. Pierre beats Jake Shields this March—not a given, but certainly not unlikely—he would probably begin working immediately toward a move up to middleweight and making this dream matchup a reality.  This fight could actually happen in 2011.  And that's not according to me.  That's UFC President Dana White talking.

So, in the spirit of baseless speculation—easily the most funnest kind of speculation I know of—here is a brief breakdown of how things might shake out should we ever reach that fateful date.

1. Striking

I'm going to give the slight edge here to the greatest striker in the world.  And by slight, I mean huge.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but kickboxing with The Spider is like splitting logs with a vascular surgeon.  He is simply not doing the same activity that you are.  Silva is lightning fast, razor sharp and deadly accurate.  He knows where you're going to move your head before you start to move it.  How else can you explain the massive accuracy advantage he holds when engaging in stand-up exchanges with opponents? 

Now, make no mistake, St. Pierre can bang. Two examples include putting Matt Hughes on his ear with a head kick and jabbing Josh Koscheck's face into chicken-fried steak.

Nevertheless, he is looking up at Silva in this category.  Just like everybody else.

Advantage:  Silva

2. Defense

During a pure stand-up exchange, the clear advantage again goes to Silva. In technical MMA parlance, punching Anderson Silva is like trying to punch the liquid Terminator.

But when talking takedown defense, it gets a little murkier. Silva has a good sprawl, thanks in large part to his excellent balance, but he showed against Chael Sonnen that he can be taken down by an opponent who has the patience and technique to set up his shots.  St. Pierre has proven he can do both.

As for GSP, an interesting study recently from FightMetric shows he's the third-most successful UFC fighter in takedown defense, while Silva lurks just outside the top 10.  It's also very tough to land a clean hit on St. Pierre, unless your name is Matt Serra and you're having the night of your life.

Though instinct may initially say Silva, in reality it's too close to call.

Advantage:  Push

3. Wrestling

Photo credit: Sports Illustrated

Now it's GSP's turn to have a big edge. 

While St. Pierre's foundation is technically karate, the Quebec native has advanced so far in wrestling that his inclusion on the Canadian Olympic team was not an entirely laughable proposition.  St. Pierre has been criticized for a less-than-scintillating string of wins—Jon Fitch, Thiago Alves and Dan Hardy among them—but there was a lack of excitement in part because of the way he dominated those very good fighters with his very superior grappling.

Advantage: St. Pierre

4. Submissions

St. Pierre's wrestling advantage is countered by Silva's ability to work effectively from his back and use his long limbs to pull submissions out of unlikely places.

GSP has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt of his own and can crank an arm or sink a choke if given the chance, but Silva and his credentials with the Nogueira brothers and the Black House gym put him on a higher level.

Advantage:  Silva

5. Bottom Line

By taking him down and staying on top of him, Chael Sonnen exposed Anderson Silva's weaknesses for all to see.  And since taking people down and staying on top of them is what St. Pierre does better than anybody else, the initial edge would seem to go to GSP.

But, not so fast my friend. Because after all, Sonnen exposed those weaknesses to Silva, too. 

And the Spider is smart.  He'd have better defenses in a clash with GSP, and will get the win by relying on his unparalleled stand-up, which he currently does better than any other fighter does anything else.  St. Pierre will gain respect and fans with his skill and surprising toughness, but in the end, Silva will simply have more moments.

Winner:  Anderson Silva, unanimous decision