UFC 127: Penn Vs Fitch Fight Card Preview and Predictions to Take to The Bank

The Ultimate Fighting Championship comes to the Acer Arena in Sydney, Australia for the second time next Saturday with an eagerly anticipated fight card. Along with UFC 115, UFC 127: Penn vs. Fitch is the fastest-selling event in UFC history.

The headliner features an intriguing matchup between former lightweight champion B.J. Penn and perennial welterweight contender Jon Fitch.

A win could prolong Penn's stay at welterweight, while a loss could put him in a similar situation as former middleweight champion Rich Franklin.

In the co-main event, Michael Bisping will square off against Jorge Rivera in a bout that is quickly gaining interest as a heated grudge match. How will "The Tale of Count Bisping" end?

The time has come once again to feast on some manly knowledge in preparation for the upcoming fights.

Snatch a cold beverage out the fridge and get comfortable. It's breakdown time.

As always, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

(SportsHaze.com Original)

B.J. Penn Vs. Jon Fitch

Key Victories :

Penn  (Matt Hughes, Takanori Gomi, Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez, Jens Pulver, Renzo Gracie, Joe Stevenson, Caol Uno, Matt Serra, Duane Ludwig, Din Thomas)

Fitch  (Thiago Alves, Paulo Thiago, Diego Sanchez, Mike Pierce, Ben Saunders, Akihiro Gono, Brock Larson)

Forecast :

"You're only as good as your last performance."

This motto has B.J. Penn written all over it. After losing back-to-back unanimous decisions to current lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, the future seemed uncertain for Penn.

If he stayed at lightweight, he would have to step out of the spotlight and join the shark tank of contenders. Surely, he wouldn't go back up to welterweight, where he hadn't won a fight in over six years.

At UFC 123, "The Prodigy" returned to welterweight and annihilated longtime nemesis and UFC Hall-of-Famer Matt Hughes. After 50 hellacious minutes with Edgar, it only took Penn 21 seconds to wipe the floor with Hughes and crawl back into Welterweight relevancy.

Penn now faces the daunting task of defeating Jon Fitch, who is listed in most publications as a top-ten pound-for-pound fighter and the number two welterweight in the world. Can the momentum continue for Penn, or wrill Fitch pick up another big win and finally secure his previously promised title shot?

Born in Kailua, Hawaii, Penn trains and teaches at BJ Penn's MMA. He is a black belt in BJJ (Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu). With only three years of training, Penn became the first non-Brazilian to win the World Jiu-Jitsu Championship in 2000. His incredible BJJ prowess tends to get overshadowed by his world-class boxing skills.

Along with UFC Hall-of-Famer Randy Couture, Penn is the only fighter in UFC history to hold a title in two weight classes.

Fighting out of San Jose, California, Fitch trains alongside Cain Velasquez, Josh Koscheck, and Mike Swick at American Kickboxing Academy. He is a black belt in Guerrilla Jiu-Jitsu, which encompasses aspects of BJJ and Judo. At Purdue University, he was a four-year letterman and a team captain of the wrestling team.

In the UFC, Fitch's record stands at 13-1, with his only loss coming to welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. At UFC 117, he took a convincing unanimous decision over former title contender Thiago Alves.

Keys to Victory :

Penn has to take advantage of opportunities in the open and avoid getting pinned against the cage. Fitch is a grinder, and Penn can't allow himself to get stuck in bad positions for extended periods of time.

As long as the fight stays in the center, Penn will have the advantage. Fitch isn't an explosive takedown artist, and he lacks the boxing chops to edge out the exchanges. Instead of athleticism, Fitch's takedowns are based more off technique and timing. Penn needs to keep a low base and use his speed to win the exchanges and avoid the takedown.

This entire fight should be a scrappy effort for Penn. Fitch hasn't been finished in nearly a decade, and he is relentless with his takedown attempts. If Penn ends up on his back, he has to stay active in his search for sweeps and openings to scramble.

"Jigsaw" himself would struggle in formulating a contraption to submit Fitch. Penn can't afford to waste valuable time idling for submissions that aren't there.

The sight of Hughes plastered on the canvas like he had just been trampled on by a parade should serve as a lesson for Fitch. He needs to avoid over-committing in the standup and stick with his strategy of dragging the fight to the floor. This is easier said than done as Penn's immense flexibility makes him incredibly hard to bring down.

Fitch needs to close the distance and seek takedowns off the fence. This is taking a page out of Georges St. Pierre's book when he faced Penn at UFC 94. Fitch can lean on Penn in the clinch and wear him down with short strikes and constant takedown attempts.

On the ground, Fitch will have to deal with Penn's octopus-like guard. He'll have to maintain great submission awareness if he hopes to coast to the promised land.

Prediction :

Stylistically, this is a nasty matchup for Penn, who tends to struggle against stronger wrestlers. Unlike St. Pierre and Edgar, Fitch won't present Penn with a dual threat of striking and takedowns. All Penn has to do is avoid the takedown and outbox Fitch. It's as simple as that. Right?

Wrong. In his career, 13 of Fitch's 27 wins have gone the distance. Fitch knows what he's good at, and he rarely deviates from it. Unless Penn lands the big punch, it's going to be an uphill battle of defending takedowns and jockeying for position against the stronger wrestler.

Fitch has shown a tendency to wane in later rounds, which could open up opportunities for Penn to rally late. Still, fans should expect another workmanlike performance from Fitch as he wears Penn down with top control and clinch work en route to another unanimous decision.

Michael Bisping Vs. Jorge Rivera

Key Victories :

Bisping  (Yoshihiro Akiyama, Matt Hamill, Dan Miller, Denis Kang, Chris Leben, Eric Schafer)

Rivera    (Kendall Grove, Nate Quarry, Dennis Hallman, David Loiseau, Travis Lutter)

Forecast :

Initially, this was a fight that fans weren't overly excited to see positioned in the co-main event slot, but Jorge Rivera has done a fine job of hyping his upcoming showdown with Michael Bisping.

Recently, Rivera's camp posted a couple of YouTube videos poking fun at the "Ultimate Fighter" Season 3 winner.

While the videos have generated plenty of hits and laughter amongst fans, Bisping isn't amused.

"He can try to make himself relevant by talking [expletive] and doing stupid videos. I make myself relevant by constantly fighting the best in the world in main events and co-main events for the UFC," Bisping said in an interview with The Independent.

Fighting out of Manchester, England, Bisping trains at Wolfslair MMA Academy with Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Cheick Kongo. In the UFC, he has earned "Fight of the Night" three times. The majority of his wins have come by knockout (12).

At UFC 120, Bisping crept into the top ten middleweight rankings with a unanimous decision win over Yoshihiro Akiyama.

Rivera fights out of Milford, Massachusetts, where he puts in work with guys like Patrick Cote and Marcus Davis at Team Sityodtong. Like Bisping, the majority of Rivera's wins have come by knockout (12). Rivera, who is considered a journeyman in the sport, has competed professionally for nearly a decade. He is currently on a three-fight win streak.

At UFC Fight Night 21, Rivera dismantled Nate Quarry in a second round TKO stoppage.

Keys to Victory :

Rivera is an underrated striker with more than enough knockout power to make Bisping blow bubbles. Bisping has to pick his shots and utilize good footwork. The key is to stay away from wild exchanges. There will be opportunities for Bisping to land on the feet, as Rivera's sloppy defense has led to him getting his chin cracked multiple times in the past. It all comes down to patience.

Bisping can really give Rivera problems if he opts to drag the fight to the ground. Rivera doesn't have the best takedown defense, and Bisping should have a decent advantage in the grappling department. This strategy should help Bisping exploit Rivera's weaknesses while avoiding his strengths.

Rivera will likely be the feline in this game of cat and mouse that is about to unfold. Bisping never lingers in the pocket during exchanges. He is great at landing punches and avoiding counters. Rivera needs to be aggressive and force Bisping into unnecessary exchanges. He'll have to watch out for takedowns when pressing forward. Bisping is a much better grappler than he gets credit for.

In the standup, Bisping sometimes makes the mistake of circling towards the power-hand of his opponents. While "The Count" gets away with this against most opponents, Dan Henderson cashed in on a fat bonus check for Knockout of the Night when he met Bisping at UFC 100. Rivera has to stay on his toes and be prepared to take advantage of these small windows of opportunity.

Hopefully, Rivera has his cardio on point for this bout. Bisping tends to keep a frantic pace throughout an entire fight. Rivera needs to be aggressive when he can, but he also has to avoid blowing his gas tank early.

Prediction :

Fairy tales are all about happy endings, and fans should expect no different from "The Tale of Count Bisping".

Bisping will surprise Rivera early by securing a takedown and working from top position. The happy ending, at least for Bisping fans, will come in the second round when Bisping opens up in the exchanges and tees off on Rivera to net the TKO stoppage.

George Sotiropoulos Vs. Dennis Siver

Key Victories :

Sotiropoulos (Joe Stevenson, Joe Lauzon, Kurt Pellegrino)

Siver  (Spencer Fisher, Paul Kelly, Andre Winner)

Forecast :

Fans writing Dennis Siver off as an easy stepping stone for George Sotiropoulos are sadly mistaken. Another "menace" awaits Sotiropoulos in his continued march towards a Lightweight Title shot.

Born in Geelong, Victoria, Australia, Sotiropoulos trains at Fisticuffs Gym in Vancouver, Washington. He is a black belt in BJJ with eight career submission victories. Leonard Gabriel, Sotiropoulos' boxing coach, was a major factor in Sotiropoulos' decision to leave Xtreme Couture and join Fisticuffs Gym. With Gabriel at his side, Sotiropoulos has made significant strides in his boxing.

At UFC 123, he submitted Joe Lauzon with a kimura in the second round. He is currently on an eight-fight win streak.

Fighting out of Mannheim, Germany, Siver's style encompasses Kickboxing, Sambo, and BJJ (purple belt). After being released from the UFC in 2008, Siver returned in early 2009 and has since compiled a 5-1 record. He earned fight honors in four of those bouts including one Fight of the Night, one Submission of the Night, and two Knockouts of the Night.

At UFC 122, Siver picked up a first-round submission victory over "TUF" Season 9 finalist Andre Winner.

Keys to Victory :

It is imperative that Sotiropoulos avoids overstaying his welcome on the feet. Siver, a former German kickboxing champion (WAKO), isn't the type of fighter to test your standup against. Sotiropoulos has to find a way to get this bout on the ground. He needs to rely on timing in the open to counter Siver's strikes with takedowns.

When it comes to kicking, Siver is MMA's real life version of Daniel Larusso. Sotiropoulos has to be on guard for random unorthodox kicks that could come his way, especially Siver's spinning back kick, which has netted him a couple of TKO finishes in the past.

Siver's survival could depend on his ability to keep the fight on the feet. He doesn't possess the grappling chops to match wits with Sotiropoulos in a BJJ match. If he hopes to pull off the upset, Siver has to stave off takedowns, avoid guard pulls, and best the exchanges on the feet.

He needs to avoid getting careless with his kicks. A telegraphed kick could spell trouble if Sotiropoulos is able to counter with a takedown. Siver should try to keep the fight in the open and avoid getting clinched against the fence. Sotiropoulos isn't an elite level wrestler, but the cage could give him enough leverage to snag a much-needed takedown.

Prediction :

This is almost your typical grappler versus striker matchup, but Siver presents more problems in the grappling department than one would initially expect. Along with his purple belt in BJJ, Siver's judo and sambo background makes him competent on all phases of grappling.

With that said, there is a big difference between competence and world-class. As far as grappling is concerned, Sotiropoulos is just on another level.

The possibility for an upset in this bout is stronger than some are willing to admit, but fans should expect Sotiropoulos to latch on a rear naked choke and pick up the submission win late in the second round.

Chris Lytle Vs. Brian Ebersole

Key Victories :

Lytle        (Matt Serra, Kazuo Misaki, Matt Brown, Paul Taylor, Aaron Riley, Pat Healy)

Ebersole  (Nick Thompson, Carlos Newton, Matt Horwich)

Forecast :

Brian Ebersole is a character. The UFC won't allow him to cut WWE-like promos like he did before his bout with Hector Lombard, but his presence should entertain fans.

Stepping in as a late replacement for Carlos Condit, Ebersole will try to prove himself as the ultimate opportunist when he makes his UFC debut against veteran brawler Chris Lytle.

Born in Indianapolis, Indiana, Lytle trains at Integrated Fighting Academy. Despite his nickname being "Lights Out", the majority of Lytle's victories have come by submission (19). In the UFC, he has earned multiple fight bonuses including four Fights of the Night, two Submissions of the Night, and one Knockout of the Night.

At UFC 119, Lytle earned a unanimous decision over Matt Serra, avenging a previous loss in 2006.

Fighting out of Bradley, Illinois, Ebersole's style consists of wrestling and Muay Thai. At Eastern Illinois University, he was coached by former welterweight champion and UFC Hall-of-Famer Matt Hughes. Despite this being his UFC debut, Ebersole is a longtime MMA veteran with over 60 professional fights.

He has amassed an 11-1 record in his last 12 fights, with the sole loss coming to current Bellator middleweight champion Hector Lombard. On January 29, Ebersole picked up a first-round TKO stoppage over Hamish Robertson.

Keys to Victory :

Lytle's rugged chin and lust for standup violence could benefit him in this fight. When pressed upon, Ebersole tends to turtle up for extended periods of time to avoid eating leather. He'll occasionally come out of his defensive coil to counter with hooks and overhands.

The rope-a-dope may have worked for Muhammad Ali in the "Rumble in the Jungle", but with four-ounce gloves, all it does in MMA is make you susceptible to massive punishment.

Lytle needs to be aggressive and counter Ebersole's defensive posture with uppercuts. An aggressive approach would also shorten the distance needed for Ebersole to work his outside leg kick, which is one of his best offensive weapons. When pressing forward, Lytle has to be ready to defend takedowns. While he enjoys engaging on the feet, Ebersole's bread and butter is his wrestling.

Against Lytle, Ebersole needs to be smart and avoid taking unnecessary risks. With this being his first time on the big stage, he'll likely try to impress with his famous cartwheel kick, which isn't really the issue. Lytle will avoid the kick, and fans will get a brief second of eye candy.

There could be an issue if Ebersole resorts to sticking his chin out as bait for Lytle's aggression. Lytle's punches are loopy and come at awkward angles. Ebersole needs to use his leg kicks to frustrate Lytle on the outside and force him into becoming overzealous. He'll have to circle off when Lytle charges forward to avoid getting roughed up in close quarter exchanges.

Ebersole's timing will determine whether or not he's able to secure takedowns. Lytle is an extremely underrated grappler, who won't be had on telegraphed takedown attempts.

Prediction :

Lytle should be able to fend off takedowns and dish out punishment on the feet. Ebersole's sturdy chin will get him to the final round, where Lytle's continued barrage will finally take its toll. "Lights Out" will live up to his name with a third-round TKO stoppage.

Chris Camozzi Vs. Kyle Noke

Key Victories :

Camozzi  (James Hammortree, Dong Yi Yang)

Noke       (George Sotiropoulos, Brian Ebersole)

Forecast :

Fighting out of Lakewood, Colorado, Chris Camozzi trains at Factory X Muay Thai. His style includes BJJ, Muay Thai, and Judo.

Currently on a four fight win streak, Camozzi is most known for his short stint on "TUF" Season 11, where he was forced to leave the show after suffering a broken jaw. At UFC 121, he was awarded a split decision in a close bout with Dong Yi Yang.

Kyle Noke was born in Dubbo, New South Wales, Australia. He trains at Jackson's MMA alongside an abundance of world-class fighters including Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Jon Jones, and Nate Marquardt. His style consists of wrestling and boxing.

Like Camozzi, Noke is riding a four-fight win streak, and he is also a "TUF" Season 11 alumnus. After making it to the quarterfinals, Noke was eliminated by Season 11 finalist Kris McCray. He is coming off a submission win over Rob Kimmons at UFC 122.

Keys to Victory :

Camozzi has to avoid telegraphing his offense in this fight. Noke will be on the prowl for opportunities to drag the fight to the floor. The takedown isn't the only thing Camozzi has to worry about. As the more polished boxer, Noke will also present problems in the exchanges. While pushing forward, Camozzi needs to use kicks and feints to setup his offense.

The clinch is the ultimate area he can exploit. Camozzi should maintain good octagon control and shut off Noke's angles. After he closes the distance, he should be able trap Noke against the cage and tee off with knees and short punches.

Noke better be ready to check a lot of kicks. Camozzi loves to sit on the outside and use his kicks to find his range and setup his boxing. If Noke times his shot, he may be able to catch a few kicks and turn them into takedowns.

On the feet, Noke should be able to best the exchanges, but he'll have to maintain good footwork to avoid getting caught in the clinch. The ideal strategy for Noke is to get the fight to the ground and use his strong top control to wear Camozzi down. From top, he should be able to work Camozzi with ground and pound and setup the submission.

Prediction :

Don't expect fireworks in this one. Noke will edge out the exchanges and secure enough takedowns to go home with the unanimous decision. 

Official Picks

Jon Fitch By Unanimous Decision

Michael Bisping By Round Two TKO Stoppage

George Sotiropoulos By Round Two Submission (Rear Naked Choke)

Chris Lytle By Round Three TKO Stoppage

Kyle Noke By Unanimous Decision