College Basketball Top 25 Breakdown: Kentucky Too Low, Gary Parrish Ranked UCLA?

Welcome to the February 14th, 2011 edition of the TeamRankings.com Top 25 Breakdown. This email compares the the newly released AP and Coaches polls to our own Team Rankings Top 25, and highlights likely inefficiencies in the often biased human polls.

Overrated

Last week, we highlighted No. 22 Texas A&M as the most overrated team, arguing they didn't deserve to be ranked. Since then, they've barely scraped by two inferior opponents, winning by 3 at both No. 72 Colorado and No. 137 Texas Tech. Not the best week. So, what happened to the Aggies in this week's polls? They rose to No. 21 in the AP and No. 17 in the Coaches Poll. Are the voters receiving improper benefits from A&M boosters?

You'll have to trust us when we tell you this page was up yesterday, before Kansas lost at Kansas State. But we had the Jayhawks at only No. 3, basically even with No. 4 Pittsburgh, and the most overrated of the top 5 teams. The Wildcats presented plenty of evidence to support our claim.

Arizona at #12/13 drew a lot of Twitter chatter as being overrated, but based on the predictive ratings, they're only three to four spots too high. This is a team that's 21-4, with no home losses, and only one bad loss (at No. 190 Oregon State). They're in first place in the Pac-10, and they hung with Kansas on a neutral court earlier in the year. Sure, they aren't in the top echelon, but neither are their immediate competition in the polls.

Underrated

Kentucky remains underrated by the human polls, which is surely due to their inability to win close games in the SEC. If what looks like bad luck to the computers is really a collective character flaw, then the polls probably have it right. But if it really is bad luck, expect the Wildcats to outplay their ranking going forward.

Several teams continue to be unranked, despite top 25 predictive ratings: Washington, Illinois, West Virginia, Marquette, and George Mason. The explanation for the first four basically boils down to a lot of close losses, similar to the case against Kentucky. As for George Mason, they have no huge marquee wins on their resume, but are dominating a decent Colonial conference. They play at VCU tonight, and if they come away victorious, perhaps they'll get enough attention to sneak into next week's rankings .

The Attacker Becomes The Attackee

Now that we've dealt with the teams that actually made it into (or were snubbed by) the polls, I'd like to highlight a curious vote by Poll Attacker Gary Parrish. He ranked UCLA 25th, with the following explanation: "The Bruins have won five straight and are all alone in second in the Pac-10 standings."

Let's ignore for a moment that UCLA ranks a lowly No. 53 in the TeamRankings predictive power ratings, and that even if you ignore margin of victory and focus on "just the wins" they're still only No. 48 in the wins power ratings.

Take a look at the victims of the five straight wins that propelled them onto Gary's ballot: No. 144 Arizona State (only road game), No. 98 USC, No. 22 St. John's, No. 106 Oregon, and No. 190 Oregon State. St. John's is the only decent name on the list, and they've been less than unbeatable away from Madison Square Garden.

It's true that, by our reckoning, UCLA is playing well recently, ranking No. 16 in the last 10 games power ratings. But if an underrated team is going to sneak onto your ballot based on a bunch of wins over mediocre opponents, shouldn't that team be George Mason, who are No. 3 in those same last 10 ratings? Their recent win over No. 37 Old Dominion is comparable to UCLA's win over St. John's, and they're in sole possession of first place in the Colonial.

Or, how about Xavier?  The Musketeers have three top-60 road wins in their last six games, are 9-1 in their last ten, in first place in the Atlantic 10, and rate No. 10 in the last 10 games ratings.

A five game winning streak, mostly at home against poor teams, is no reason to rank UCLA. And if you're arguing that their overall body of work is better than George Masons, well, A) the ratings disagree, and B)  there about 25 other teams that could make the same argument against the Bruins, and I don't see any of them on Gary's ballot.

This Week’s Top 25 Breakdown Chart

Team	AP Poll	Coaches Poll	TeamRankings
Kansas	1	1	3
Ohio State	2	3	1
Texas	3	2	2
Pittsburgh	4	4	4
Duke	5	5	5
San Diego St	6	6	8
BYU	7	8	6
Notre Dame	8	7	11
Georgetown	9	9	10
Wisconsin	10	10	9
Purdue	11	11	7
Arizona	12	13	16
Connecticut	13	12	14
Florida	14	15	28
Villanova	15	14	13
Louisville	16	16	26
Syracuse	17	20	17
Vanderbilt	18	18	24
N Carolina	19	19	15
Missouri	20	21	21
Texas A&M	21	17	33
Kentucky	22	22	12
Temple	23	25	29
Xavier	24	--	40
Utah State	25	24	27
St Marys	--	23	23
Washington	--	--	18
Illinois	--	--	19
W Virginia	--	--	20
Marquette	--	--	22
Geo Mason	--	--	25

Complete Top 25 Analysis »

Most Overrated Teams

The teams listed below are ranked higher in the AP or Coaches polls than in the TeamRankings.com rankings. Click the link below to see all overrated teams.

AP Poll   Team Rank TR Diff Xavier 24 40 -16 Florida 14 28 -14 Texas A&M 21 33 -12

Coaches Poll   Team Rank TR Diff Texas A&M 17 33 -16 Florida 15 28 -13 Louisville 16 26 -10

Most Underrated Teams

The teams listed below are ranked lower in the AP or Coaches polls than in the TeamRankings.com rankings. Click the link below to see all underrated teams.

AP Poll   Team Rank TR Diff Kentucky 22 12 +10 N Carolina 19 15 +4 Purdue 11 7 +4

Coaches Poll   Team Rank TR Diff Kentucky 22 12 +10 N Carolina 19 15 +4 Purdue 11 7 +4

Rising In The Rankings

The teams listed below moved up in the AP poll or TeamRankings.com rankings this week. Click the link below to see all rising teams.

AP Poll   Team Rank Last Diff Vanderbilt 18 23 +5 Purdue 11 14 +3 Florida 14 17 +3

TeamRankings   Team Rank Last Diff Arizona 16 21 +5 St Marys 23 28 +5 Washington 18 22 +4

Falling In The Rankings

The teams listed below moved down in the AP poll or TeamRankings.com rankings this week. Click the link below to see all falling teams.

AP Poll   Team Rank Last Diff Villanova 15 9 -6 Syracuse 17 12 -5 Utah State 25 21 -4

TeamRankings   Team Rank Last Diff W Virginia 20 17 -3 Marquette 22 20 -2 Kentucky 12 10 -2

Teams That Deserve To Be Ranked

These teams are ranked in the TeamRankings.com Top 25 this week, but are unranked in both the AP poll and the Coaches poll. In other words, they got shaft

• Unranked Washington is No. 18 in our rankings
• Unranked Illinois is No. 19 in our rankings
• Unranked W Virginia is No. 20 in our rankings
• Unranked Marquette is No. 22 in our rankings
• Unranked Geo Mason is No. 25 in our rankings

TeamRankings.com Predictive Power Rankings

About Our Rankings

The TeamRankings.com Top 25 reflects the top rated teams in our predictive power ratings. These numerical ratings are computed by a sophisticated mathematical model built by Stanford math nerds and primarily designed to evaluate a team’s likelihood to outscore opponents.

Our mathematical model incorporates thousands of statistical data points—far more information than a human brain can evaluate on its own. As long as teams have played at least five or ten games (including a few non-conference games), our calculations provide a more accurate and objective means of assessing team performance than the AP and Coaches polls, which simply ask a bunch of biased sports writers or coaches what they think.