March Madness Predictions 2011: 20 Teams On Bracket Bubble
The NCAA tournament is just around the corner. Right now, the teams in the Top 25 are breathing easy as it would take a catastrophic fall from grace for them to not make it in. As for the rest of the teams in Division I? Well, let’s just say that no matter how safe they feel right now, no one is safe. There is still a few weeks left in the season and anything can happen.
Right now there are plenty of teams who are hearing the footsteps of tournament failure and they are worried they might not make it in at all. Some teams have lived on the bubble, others are teams that seem to get annual invitations. Either way these 20 teams are on the bubble and it’s going to take some strong play down the stretch to have them heading to the big dance. Let’s take a look.
20. Montana
1 of 20
The Case For
Montana has recently come on the radar. They have one win against the RPI top 50 and three wins against the RPI Top 150.
The Case Against
They have an RPI out of the top 100 and an SOS out of the top 200. They have most of their wins against sub 150 teams. That’s not the resume that tournament births are built on.
Will They Get In?
Joe Lunardi of ESPN has these guys as a 16th seed, but it doesn’t seem likely. They haven’t played anyone and haven’t beat anyone either. Don’t expect to see Montana in the tournament.
19. Wichita State
2 of 20
The Case For
Wichita State looked dead in the water, but a win against Northern Iowa has kept them alive for now. They have a good conference record and they haven’t lost a single bad game.
The Case Against
Only one win in the RPI top 100 is not the way that you make the case for the tourney. They must win out down the stretch to stay in the discussion.
Will They Get In?
They will not get in. They might fare well down the road, but they have been on the brink of the bubble since the start. That hasn’t changed now, and it won’t change later.
18. New Mexico
3 of 20
The Case For
They haven’t blown the doors off the NCAA tournament , so they’ll have to knock to get in. The best way they can do that is by finishing strong . They face BYU and San Diego State before the season is over. A win against one of those top 10 teams and the committee could be answering.
The Case Against
Even with games against those opponents down the stretch, New Mexico is still going to have a terrible SOS. Their RPI won’t be anything flattering and if they lose against BYU and SDSU they won’t have a prayer.
Will They Get In?
No. New Mexico is a long shot at best but they won’t have the wins to get in.
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17. Gonzaga
4 of 20
The Case For
Gonzaga has handled themselves well this year considering they have had to play five ranked opponents. They have a big win against Baylor and they are a tournament lock most years and the committee doesn’t forget that.
The Case Against
Gonzaga has only won once against ranked opponents this year. They have also had a poor conference record in a conference where the record shouldn’t be poor.
Will They Get In?
Don’t bet on it. There will be little chance to make noise down the stretch. If they catch some breaks good things will happen, but that’s not likely.
16. Colorado State
5 of 20
The Case For
They have an RPI of 42, and they have a chance coming up to make a little bit of noise going into selection Sunday. In their final six games they play two top 10 teams. Just knocking off one of them could give the a huge push.
The Case Against
Up until these stretch of games, Colorado State hasn’t beaten anyone that would impress you. They’ve faced just three ranked teams and haven’t beat any of them. What makes anyone think they will finally do so now?
Will They Get In?
It’s not likely. There are plenty of teams on the bubble that deserve it more than Colorado State.
15. Oklahoma State Cowboys
6 of 20
The Case For
The case for Oklahoma State has nothing to do with what they have done, but really, what they can do. Their next three games are against Texas, Texas A&M, and Kansas. If they can win any of those games they will put themselves into the discussion.
The Case Against
The Cowboys haven’t played anyone that they can really hang their hat on but that all changes this week. If they can win these games they have a great chance.
Will They Get In?
The stretch of games that is supposed to make them, will probably break them and burst their bubble.
14. Michigan State
7 of 20
The Case For
Michigan State has a good RPI and SOS and that should help them despite their 10 losses. They also have a chance to make some noise with upcoming games against Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota.
The Case Against
10 losses is a lot for a team that has looked flat, and at times bad, all season long. And those three upcoming games they have could spell doom for them if they even drop one of them.
Will They Get In?
While it won’t seem like the NCAA Tournament without Tom Izzo, everyone will just have to adjust. Michigan State won’t play their way in.
13. Virginia Tech
8 of 20
The Case For
Although barely, they have a winning record in conference and their strength of schedule is better than that of division rival Clemson. They also have a chance to impress as they have remaining games against Clemson, Duke and Boston College.
The Case Against
Against teams with an RPI in the top 50 they are 2-5 and their only two wins have come against Florida State and Oklahoma State. Neither of those teams is very impressive.
Will They Get In?
I would not count on it. They have to win big down the stretch and they haven’t shown they can do that. They are more likely to play spoiler than they are to get into the tournament.
12. Washington State
9 of 20
The Case For
They have a good record and a couple of wins against ranked opponents.
The Case Against
While they do have some quality wins, they also don’t have a great RPI or SOS. This makes it harder to get into the tournament.
Will They Get In?
Don’t believe it’s in the cards for them. They don’t have anyone left on the schedule to really make noise with. They’ll be close, but not close enough.
11. Memphis
10 of 20
The Case For
Memphis has a good RPI and a decent SOS. They have two quality wins, but not much else to show for it.
The Case Against
Their resume is underwhelming to say the least. Their two biggest wins were against teams on the bubble(UAB and Southern Miss). They are only hanging on because of a watered down field.
Will They Get In?
They shouldn’t. There will be other teams on the bubble with better quality wins and they will deserve it more.
10. Cincinnati
11 of 20
The Case For
They have a good record and play in the best conference in the country. They have an RPI at 36 and don’t have single bad loss to speak of.
The Case Against
Despite playing in the almighty Big East the Bearcats have a terrible strength of schedule and they just lost to St. Johns. The Bearcats play three more ranked teams before the end of the season. If they can’t find a way to beat at least one of them, they won’t make much of a case to the tournament committee.
Will They Get In?
Cincinnati will make it hard for the committee to say no, but ultimately they won’t deserve to be there and the committee will turn them away.
9. Clemson
12 of 20
The Case For
Clemson has played their way into the tournament conversation with their winning record in the ACC and they have played well against tough opponents.
The Case Against
Both their strength of schedule and their RPI aren’t really good and their top wins are against Florida State and Boston College and one of those teams(Boston College) is on the bubble too.
Will They Get In?
Clemson has come on as of late, but they are too little too late. There is a good chance they’ll be watching the tournament from home.
8. Maryland
13 of 20
The Case For
The case has been made for Maryland that they don’t have a single bad loss on the season. They have hung in close with Duke and Villanova. They have a schedule that favors their case down the stretch if they can get hot and win.
The Case Against
Their RPI and SOS is 80. Every team in the RPI top 50 that Maryland has played they have lost to. That doesn’t bode well for a team trying to make their case they belong in the tournament.
Will They Get In?
Doubtful. Maryland is a good team, but they are not NCAA Tournament good.
7. UAB
14 of 20
The Case For
They have a very good RPI and a respectable SOS. They have beaten a number of teams that are on the bubble or on the fringe of the tournament including Virginia Commonwealth and Southern Miss. They have only had one bad loss and that was the Duke, but they have played well within their conference too.
The Case Against
For all they have done they still haven’t beat anyone that is truly impressive. Still have Memphis, Southern Miss, and UCF on the schedule. If they don’t do well against them they won’t make it in.
Will They Get In?
It’s going to be close, but if we’re picking then yes, they’ll get in. They have been a solid team all year and they’ll be blessed because of it.
6. Richmond
15 of 20
The Case For
Let’s start with an 8-2 record on the road. If you want to go further you can point to their win against Purdue. The bottom line is they do well against tough teams.
The Case Against
In the midst of that impressive resume, they have some really bad games against Xavier and Bucknell. Their strength of schedule is nothing to write home about.
Will They Get In?
Richmond won’t have an easy time getting in, but a good road record and wins against good teams will be enough to do it.
5. Butler
16 of 20
The Case For
They are in the top 50 for both RPI and SOS so that will play well for them come selection time. They have a good in conference schedule and they are free of bad losses.
The Case Against
Butler has only played one ranked opponent all year long. And they don’t have any remaining games against ranked opponents to make a case for them.
Will They Get In?
Yes. They might not deserve it like other teams will, but there is something to be said about having a good record and having been the runner up the year before.
4. Southern Mississippi
17 of 20
The Case For
The have a top 50 RPI and they have wins against UCF and Cal. They have a good in conference record and they should win their conference.
The Case Against
Even their two signature win’s aren’t that impressive. They had a chance to improve their shot against Memphis, but they ended up losing in a close battle.
Will They Get In?
Yes. Considering they will be the conference champs when all is said and done that should help them to get into the tournament.
3. Marquette
18 of 20
The Case For
Marquette has a great SOS and their RPI isn’t as bad as some of the other teams on the bubble. Marquette will also have something that other bubble teams won’t: quality wins. They have managed to beat Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia.
The Case Against
Against teams with RPI’s in the top 50, the Golden Eagles are 3-8. That’s not conducive of a top level team.
Will They Get In?
Marquette has made a better case than most of the bubble teams. They should make it in.
2. Saint Mary’s
19 of 20
The Case For
They have an RPI in the top forty and they beat both Gonzaga and St. John’s. They also host Gonzaga and Utah State this season. If they can find a way to beat those two they should be a lock for an at-large big.
The Case Against
Their strength of the schedule is a pretty poor 138. They have had good wins, but no special wins or anything to set them apart. They will have to win down the stretch to get people to notice them.
Will They Get In?
Yes. Saint Mary’s has done enough, and should at least beat Gonzaga to cement their solid resume.
1. Boston College
20 of 20
The Case For
The have posted a 15-9 record with a SOS ranking of 19. They have a RPI under 50. They also have a game against North Carolina and a few other teams that can strengthen their case.
The Case Against
When they have played teams within the RPI 50, Boston College is 1-4. And with a pretty competitive schedule coming up they could shoot themselves in the foot.
Will They Get In?
Yes. They have fared well against a tough schedule and that won’t be lost on the committee come selection Sunday.
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