BracketBusters Weekend: Previewing The 9 Televised Games on Saturday and Sunday
For any mid-major fan, ESPN's BracketBusters provide a great weekend with some quality basketball. On Feb. 19 and Feb. 20, ESPN is televising nine games, with 18 of the top mid-major teams in the country as some looking to put together a résumé for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Here are previews for each of the nine games to be televised this weekend on Saturday and Sunday.
The previews will include the keys to the game for both teams, players to watch for and then, my personal pick for the game.
Hofstra at Wright State, Saturday at 11 AM on ESPNU
1 of 9
Hofstra (18-9, 12-4 CAA) was red-hot early in CAA play. The Pride was 8-1, but a three-game losing streak dropped the Pride back to the middle of the conference. Since then, it has won four straight to enter a three-way tie for second place in the CAA.
Wright State (17-12, 10-7 Horizon) was in much better shape when this matchup was announced. The Raiders were competing for a Horizon League title at that point, but three straight losses have dropped them into fifth place.
Keys for Hofstra
The Charles Jenkins Show.
This does not mean that everything about the game has to happen through Jenkins. However, Jenkins is the leader of the Pride, and he needs to be the leader in this game. Jenkins 23.5 PPG is a CAA best and he is also a strong distributor.
Shoot the three.
Hofstra is a strong three-point shooting team. Jenkins shoots 42.7 percent, Mike Moore shoots 37.2 percent, and Brad Kelleher shoots 36.8 percent. As a team, the Pride shoots 36.8 percent from beyond the arc. Wright State is the third best three-point defense team in the Horizon League, but Hofstra still needs to find a way to make some three-pointers.
Keys for Wright State
Keep the game low-scoring.
Hofstra is a team that plays better in games where the Pride scores about 70 points. Wright State is better when the score is in the 60s. Although Wright State still has the ability to win a higher-scoring game, Hofstra will have many struggles if they game is low-scoring.
Find a way to rebound.
Wright State is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation. The Raiders average the nation's fourth worst 27.2 RPG. Hofstra is also a poor rebounding team, with only 32 RPG. If the Raiders can manage to get well above their rebounding average, they should be in much better shape.
Players to watch for:
Charles Jenkins has consistently gotten recognition with outstanding performances. This season, Jenkins has transitioned from a pure scorer to a scoring point guard. In addition to averaging 23.5 PPG, Jenkins is averaging nearly 5 APG. He has many ways of scoring, utilizing drives and jump shots.
Vaughn Duggins has been one of the explosive scorers in the Horizon League this season. The fifth-year senior stands at No. 2 in scoring in the conference, only behind Cleveland State's Norris Cole. Duggins can shoot, but there are other ways that he can score.
My pick: Hofstra by two
Austin Peay at Fairfield, Saturday at 1 PM on ESPNU
2 of 9Austin Peay (17-11, 11-5 OVC) visits the MAAC's first place Fairfield (21-5, 14-2 MAAC) this weekend. Austin Peay has hit a few rough spots in conference play, while Fairfield has been the only dominant team in the MAAC.
Keys for Austin Peay
Get above the scoring average.
I have seen Fairfield in person once and on television a few other times. Although the Stags defense does not show up on the box score in terms of steals, it makes opponents work hard for every shot and often forces poor shots by the opponent.
If Austin Peay can take Fairfield out of its defensive comfort zone, the outcome will shift in Austin Peay's favor. In Fairfield's two MAAC losses, the Stags are allowing 81 PPG. In its wins, the Stags allow only 55.4 PPG.
Force turnovers.
One weakness in Fairfield's play is the the Stags turn the ball over a little too much. Under defensive pressure, the Stags have turned the ball over more often. The Governors have the ability to turn teams over, averaging nine steals per game.
Keys for Fairfield
The game goes through Needham.
Fairfield plays its best when the offense goes through Derek Needham. Needham needs to be the first option for scoring, and he also has to be able to find open teammates. He is a star in the MAAC, and he must play that way on Saturday.
Win the battle on the boards.
Fairfield's closer games and losses have generally come when the Stags get outrebounded. Fairfield is the more talented team, but if the Stags do not rebound, they will struggle.
Players to watch for:
TyShawn Edmondson is playing in his first year at Austin Peay. The junior who played his freshman year at St. John's is No. 2 in the OVC in scoring, only .1 PPG behind Morehead State's Kenneth Faried. Edmondson is a 35.7 percent three-point shooter, and has had some explosive performances this year. He hit seven three-pointers while tying a career-high 33 points against Tennessee State.
Derek Needham got off to a slow start in 2010-11. The 2009-10 MAAC Freshman of the Year did not really get going until MAAC play. However, Needham has gotten his groove back and still knows how to score the basketball. He can both drive and shoot and has scored as many as 27 points this season.
My pick: Fairfield by 11
Iona at Liberty, Saturday at 3 PM on ESPNU
3 of 9
Iona (17-10, 11-5 MAAC) has won four straight games. The Gaels stand at second place in the MAAC. This BracketBuster will be the Gaels' third game in a four-game road trip.
Liberty (19-9, 13-3 Big South) was eliminated from a Big South regular season title, but the Flames are still confident in their ability to defeat Coastal Carolina and go the Big Dance. This game will be tough for Iona, considering that Liberty has only lost twice at home this season, with both losses coming to powerful mid-major programs (George Mason and Coastal Carolina).
Keys for Iona
Go to Glover.
Mike Glover is the best player in the MAAC. The former Big East recruit can overpower most mid-major players and can sometimes score at will in the post. He has to be Iona's first option on offense.
Work for the open three.
When Iona's shooters are open from beyond the arc, they rarely miss. I got to see the downside of that when Iona made 16 three-pointers against my Manhattan Jaspers on Wednesday. Although the Gaels have some good three-point shooters, they should not just be running and gunning. They have to run an offense to work for the open three-point shots.
Keys for Liberty
Rebound the basketball.
Liberty is one of the better rebounding teams in the nation. Just about all of the main players on the team put up solid rebounding numbers. Iona has a pair of somewhat dominant rebounders in Glover and Alejo Rodriguez. The Flames will have to work hard to keep these two off the glass, but they have the ability to do it.
Balanced scoring.
Most of Liberty's scoring comes from four players. The Flames have four players who 11 PPG or more. Out of their teams' 69 PPG, Evan Gordon, John Brown, Jesse Sanders, and David Minaya combine for over 48 PPG.
Defend the perimeter.
On the flip side of Iona needing to get open looks from three-point range, Liberty has to prevent that from happening. If Iona is defended beyond the arc, the Gaels offense will be forced to come from the paint. In past games, Iona has had some trouble scoring when not hitting three-pointers.
Players to watch for:
For Iona, I am going with a pair of players—juniors Scott Machado and Michael Glover. Both Machado and Glover are potent players in the MAAC. Machado leads the MAAC in assists and is No. 2 in the nation, .1 APG behind UAB's Aaron Johnson. Glover led the MAAC in scoring for just about all of the season before dropping into the No. 2 slot, .1 PPG behind Siena'a Ryan Rossiter, after a nine-point performance against Manhattan this week.
Not only are these two fun to watch individually, but they work great together as distributor and scorer.
Sophomore John Brown does not lead Liberty in scoring, but he is still one of the Flames' better players. The transfer from Citadel is averaging a double-double with 11.6 PPG and 10.8 RPG, leading the conference in rebounding. He has posted 14 double-doubles this season.
My pick: Iona by six
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Missouri State at Valparaiso, Saturday at 5 PM on ESPN2
4 of 9
Missouri State (21-6, 13-3 MVC) stands atop the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bears have won four straight games entering this contest.
Valparaiso (19-8, 11-4 Horizon) let first place in the Horizon League slip away with a loss at Milwaukee this week. However, the Crusaders are still in the running for a regular season title. With a win against Missouri State and a Horizon League conference tournament championship, the Crusaders could get a fairly respectable seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Keys for Missouri State
High percentage shots.
Missouri State is in the top 50 in the nation in field goal percentage. The Bears work for good shots and capitalize. They will have to continue to do this to beat a good team like Valparaiso on the road.
Take advantage on three-pointers.
More specifically, the Bears will need to take good shots at the right times from beyond the arc. Also, they have a few very good three-point shooters in Kyle Weems, Jermaine Mallett, and Adam Leonard. Those three are the guys who should be shooting the ball from deep.
Keys for Valparaiso
Share the basketball.
Valparaiso is No. 23 in the nation with 15.8 assists per game. The Crusaders play their best wen racking up the assists. They have six players averaging two or more assists per game.
High percentage shots.
Just like Missouri State, Valparaiso has one of the best field goal percentages in the nation. The Crusaders are even better than the Bears at 47.9 percent, ranking No. 16 in the country.
Players to watch for:
Kyle Weems on Missouri State is a candidate for MVC player of the year. Weems is second in the lead in scoring with 16.7 PPG. The junior's season-high was 27 against Bradley. Weems can both shoot and drive. He shoots 52.7 percent from the field and 43.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Valparaiso's Brandon Wood is No. 4 in the Horizon League in scoring. The junior transfer from Southern Illinois is a very good shooter and can be explosive at times. He has reached over 30 points on two occassions this year.
My pick: Missouri State by 10
Vermont at College of Charleston, Saturday at 5 PM on ESPNU
5 of 9
Vermont (22-5, 13-2 A-East) visits the College of Charleston (20-7, 13-2 SoCon) this weekend, and both teams have winning streaks on the line. The Catamounts have won 10 straight games, with their last loss coming to Maine on Jan. 18. Charleston has won five straight games and eight of its last nine.
Keys for Vermont
Limit Andrew Goudelock.
When Andrew Goudelock struggles, Charleston struggles. Even just sending Goudelock into a cold stretch could really hurt Charleston. When Goudelock is not involved in the offense, the Cougars have some trouble scoring.
Don't let the score get up.
And if Charleston cannot score, more things fall in favor of Vermont. Vermont likes a lower-scoring game compared to Charleston. If Charleston scores more than 75 points, this game is theirs. Vermont has its best chance at winning if the score is in the mid-60s.
Keys for College of Charleston
The Andrew Goudelock Show.
Obviously, Goudelock has to score and do his thing on Saturday. Similarly to what I said about Charles Jenkins of Hofsra, "The Andrew Goudelock Show" does not mean that absolutely everything has to be done by Goudelock. In fact, other players will have to put up good performances for Charleston to win. However, Goudelock is the star and leader of this team. He has to be the leader on Saturday.
The three-point shot.
Charleston is a huge threat from beyond the arc, especially when open. Goudelock shoots nearly 42 percent, while Donavan Monroe, Willis Hall, Antwaine Wiggins, and Andrew Lawrence are all solid. The Cougars as a team make 8.4 three-pointers per game.
Players to watch for:
It's impossible to take the spotlight off of Goudelock for this. He is arguably the best player in the Southern Conference and is an explosive scorer. In addition to scoring 23.4 PPG, Goudelock is a good distributor with 4.6 APG.
Brendan Bald might be the No. 3 scorer for Vermont, but he has been hot the last few games. In his last four games, Bald is averaging 16.8 PPG. His strength is his three-point shooting, as he hits 42.3 percent from beyond the arc.
My pick: Charleston by four
George Mason at Northern Iowa, Saturday at 7 PM on ESPN2
6 of 9
George Mason (22-5, 14-2 CAA) is one of the hottest teams in the nation. The Patriots 12-game winning streak ties the nation's longest active streak with Texas. The Patriots visit Northern Iowa (19-9, 10-6 MVC), which was red hot in January but has faltered a little in the month of February.
Keys for George Mason
Turn the Panthers over.
George Mason plays solid defense and forces seven steals per game and 14 turnovers total per game. Northern Iowa turns the ball over less than 10 times per game. The Patriots can swing this game into their favor by establishing their defense early and force some turnovers.
Take and make the three.
In a game that will most likely have a fair share of three-point shooting, both teams will have to capitalize. George Mason makes 6.7 three-pointers per game and has a few strong three-point shooters. The Patriots have to be ready to shoot.
Get the score up.
George Mason has beaten some defensive-minded teams by putting the focus of the game on scoring. Against Old Dominion a few weeks ago, the Patriots took control of the game with 38 second-half points. Numbers like this prevented a team like Old Dominion from really having any shot against them.
Northern Iowa likes to keep the score in the low-60s and 50s. If George Mason scores 70 points or more, I guarantee a Patriot victory.
Keys for Northern Iowa
Take and make the three.
Northern Iowa is also a strong shooting team. The Panthers make seven three-pointers per game and have four players shooting 35 percent or greater from beyond the arc. Especially if George Mason makes makes this game offensive-minded, the Panthers only hopes will rely on the three-point shot.
Keep the score low.
Northern Iowa has to keep George Mason under 70 points. If the Patriots hit 70 points, the Panthers will have practically no chance at winning this game.
Players to watch for:
Cam Long has been averaging in double digits for the last three seasons. He has scored in double digits in all but two games this season. As one of the better three-point shooters in the CAA, Long is a threat from beyond the arc at 43.7 percent.
Kwadzo Ahelegbe has improved his numbers since getting national recognition during Northern Iowa's 2010 NCAA Tournament run. The senior has cut down his turnovers and improved his scoring. He will be coming off a 24-point performance against Bradley.
My pick: George Mason by 11
Utah State at St. Mary's, Saturday at 9 PM on ESPN2
7 of 9
Both Utah State (24-3, 12-1 WAC) and St. Mary's (22-5, 10-2 WCC) are both ranked in the ESPN/USA poll. Also, both stand in first place in their respective conference. Both teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament, but this will still help build a better résumé for the winning team and also a better seeding come Selection Sunday.
Keys for Utah State
Contest the three-point shot.
St. Mary's shooters can sometimes lull the defenders to sleep and then just pull up over them. Utah State has to stay active and aware when guarding the Gaels on the perimeter. The Aggies are a strong defensive team on the perimeter, with opponents shooting only 30 percent from beyond the arc and have the ability to limit the Gaels made three-pointers.
Make your own three-point shots.
Utah State is a good three-point shooting team. There are multiple players on the squad that can shoot. St. Mary's has only a mediocre three-point defense. The Aggies like to shoot and make 6.5 three-pointers per game. Especially if the Gaels make this a shootout, Utah State will need to make its share of three-pointers to keep up.
It starts on the boards.
St. Mary's capitalizes off of open three-pointers in transition. One way the Gaels get out in transition is through defensive rebounding. The Aggies get 11 offensive rebounds per game. Strong offensive rebounding will limit St. Mary's transition opportunities.
Keys for St. Mary's
Do what you always do from three.
St. Mary's has some of the best three-point shooters in the country. The Gaels are not afraid to throw up quick three-pointers, and they should continue to do just that. However, they will have to work a little more for open looks due to Utah State's strong perimeter defense.
Down but never out.
If St. Mary's falls far behind Utah State, the Gaels need to know that they have the offensive ability to get back into any game. As evidence from the comeback at Portland, although St. Mary's did lose that game, the Gaels' three-point shooting can dominate a game.
Players to watch for:
Mickey McConnell is No. 26 in the nation in three-point percentage at 47.3 percent. The senior practically defines "sharpshooter" and is a threat from practically anywhere in the frontcourt. He has hit as many as six three-pointers in a single game. He will have to work harder for his shots against a strong defensive team like Utah State, but that will probably not stop him from performing well on the national stage.
Fifth year senior Tai Wesley is one of the better mid-major big men in the country. Wesley is averaging 14.3 PPG and 7.9 RPG. Despite being only 6'7" he has a strong body at 240 lbs.
My pick: Utah State by two
Montana at Long Beach State, Saturday at 11 PM on ESPN2
8 of 9
Long Beach State (16-10, 11-2 Big West) will host the final game of Saturday. The 49ers host the Montana Grizzlies (19-7, 11-3 Big Sky). This will be a struggle for Montana, as the Grizzlies have struggled on the road, and the 49ers have not lost at home since Nov. 27.
Keys for Montana
Force turnovers.
Long Beach State turns the ball over 15 times per game. Montana puts up solid defensive numbers, so the Grizzlies should look to force the 49ers to mishandle the basketball.
It's not only scoring.
Although Montana can score high amounts and Long Beach State's focus is on offense, the Grizzlies are still a strong defensive team. Brian Qvale anchors the defense down low with his big body and 3.1 BPG.
Keys for Long Beach State
It's on the big five.
Long Beach State gets just about all its scoring from five players: Casper Ware, Larry Anderson, T.J. Robinson, Greg Plater, and Eugene Phelps. These five combine for 67.1 PPG. These five will have to bring in at least a par performance to beat a solid mid-major such as Montana.
Take care of the basketball.
Long Beach State's turnovers have sometimes bitten the 49ers in the foot. Against a somewhat defensive-minded team like Montana, the 49ers have to make sure to take better care of the ball.
Players to watch for:
Will Cherry is one of the great, young, mid-major players in the nation. Cherry averages 14.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, and 4.3 APG. He can score and distribute.
Long Beach State's T.J. Robinson practically averages a double-double with 13.6 PPG and 9.7 RPG. The junior's numbers are down since last year, but he is still a strong offensive force. Robinson scores in double figures pretty consistently and has 12 double-doubles this season.
My pick: Montana by one
Cleveland State at Old Dominion, Sunday at 1 PM on ESPN2
9 of 9
In the final game of BracketBuster Weekend, Cleveland State (23-5, 12-4 Horizon) visits Old Dominion (21-6, 12-4 CAA). This should be another good, exciting matchup between two of the top mid-majors in college basketball.
Keys for Cleveland State
Norris Cole runs the offense.
Norris Cole is the only player in college basketball averaging over 20 PPG, 6 RPG, and 5 APG. He is the leader of Cleveland State and everything should be run through him.
Take advantage on three-pointers.
Cleveland State is a great three-point shooting team, making close to seven three-pointers per game on 36.2 percent shooting. Although Old Dominion is a great defensive team, its one defensive weakness comes on the perimeter. ODU's opponents shoot 37.1 from beyond the arc.
Focus on scoring.
If you score enough on Old Dominion, you will win. Push the score into the 70s, or even just the 60s. At that point, Old Dominion will be finished. This is very hard to do against such a good defensive team, but it is possible.
Keys for Old Dominion
Stick to defense.
Old Dominion knows it has to play its best defense to beat Cleveland State. Although the Monarchs obviously need offense to win a basketball game, their focus needs to be on defense.
Defensive rebounding.
Good defensive rebounding will limit Cleveland State's chances to score. Just like the Monarchs need to play good defense to limit the Vikings' scoring, they need good rebounding.
Players to watch for:
Norris Cole is obviously the player to watch for from Cleveland State. Cole is something special for the mid-major level and was a steal for the Vikings. He can do a little bit of everything on the hardwood and is always a threat.
ODU junior Kent Bazemore has scored in double digits in each of the last six games. During that stretch, he is averaging nearly 15 PPG.
My pick: Cleveland State by seven
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