Dwight Howard Rumors: Will Gilbert Arenas Be The One To Drive Him Out?
It wouldn't exactly be unprecedented.
A browsing of the annals of NBA history shows that the premiere centers in the league change teams. Wilt Chamberlain, Bill Walton and Patrick Ewing each played for three franchises, Hakeem Olajuwon and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar each laced it up for two teams, Shaquille O'Neal has put on six different uniforms, Dikembe Mutombo played for seven, you get the point. Despite being the franchise cornerstones, elite big men can pack up and move to a new organization just like any other player.
So with the whispers leaking out of Orlando of the possibility that Dwight Howard could walk away from the Magic Kingdom after next season, it certainly caught a lot of people by surprise. Howard has a player option for the 2012-13 season, and speculation is beginning to run rampant that he may exercise that option and become an unrestricted free agent.
The notion that Dwight would ever leave Orlando was preposterous just a few months ago. Thanks in large part to Howard's contributions (the team is without question built around his incredible singular talents), the Magic have won 52, 59 & 59 games respectively the last three seasons, including a miraculous and unexpected trip to the NBA Finals two years ago.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but questionable moves (allowing Hedo Turkoglu to curiously sign elsewhere when he wanted to stay, not re-signing glue guy Matt Barnes, trading for Vince Carter, dealing away Howard's close friend Rashard Lewis, acquiring the enigmatic Gilbert Arenas) have shaken the stability of the franchise to some degree. Orlando is currently 34-21, good for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference, a far cry from their two year stay atop the Eastern Conference standings.
Howard would never say this publicly, but one of his chief concerns has to be that of Orlando's defensive efficiency falling off considerably. In 2008-09 & 2009-10, the Magic led the NBA in opponent's field goal percentage. This year they are sixth. Not bad by any means, but not championship caliber. In Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson & Gilbert Arenas, Orlando attained the services of three perimeter players who struggle to keep their man in front of them. All three have come from previous situations where defensive effort wasn't absolutely expected every single night and so, not surprisingly, the transition to Stan Van Gundy's core defensive principals have been rocky.
Howard has publicly squirmed when pressed about the possibility he could leave Orlando, but to me that is irrelevant. Pending free agents know better than to discuss their futures, other than use the cliche, "I'll do what's best for me and my family." So what Howard says from this point forward is moot. If he wants to leave, nobody is going to know about it. The only way he can trounce the rumor mill is by resigning with Orlando before he becomes a free agent.
A quick look at the Magic's salary cap structure next season and beyond indicates a few telling facts. Dwight Howard is going to be teammates with Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu for the foreseeable future. Arenas is one of the league's highest paid players, and is signed all the way through the 2013-14 season. His salary escalates every year, and will make $43 million over the final two. In other words, Agent Zero ain't going nowhere. His averages of 8.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg and 4.0 apg along with his pitiful 35 percent from the field and 25 percent from three since joining the Magic leave a lot to be desired.
Turkoglu's deal is a little more moderate, but the pending CBA is expected to lower the team by team salary cap significantly. A big ticket, multi year deal for an average, non All-Star caliber player like Hedo isn't sexy by any means for another team to take on. So Hedo is here to stay as well.
Going forward, the three highest paid players for Orlando (and the three who will eat up a vast majority of the salary cap) will be Dwight Howard, Gilbert Arenas and Hedo Turkoglu. As outstanding a player as Dwight his, you're not winning a title with that trio. As a matter of fact, you might struggle to get out of the first round.
It's not all doom and gloom, as the Magic do feature one of the most complete rosters in the entire league. Jameer Nelson, J.J. Reddick and Brandon Bass are each signed through 2012-13 at very reasonable prices. Jason Richardson's $14.4 cap hit comes off the books this summer and his return is questionable (depends on how Orlando fares in the playoffs this year). Chris Duhon and Quentin Richardson are two solid role players on very fair contracts through 2013-14.
It seems clinically insane to walk away from a guaranteed $19.2 million, but that's what Dwight Howard would potentially leave on the table if he had intentions of leaving Orlando. But as we all know, 29 other franchises would eagerly lineup for the right to back a Brinks truck up to his house and get him to sign. Howard will undoubtedly keep his options open, see how his chemistry develops with Turkoglu, Richardson and Arenas in particular, but most importantly, will survey how the team fares in the playoffs this year and next.
And if the 26-year-old center doesn't like what he sees, the Orlando fans will relive the painful devestation of Shaquille O'Neal leaving fifteen years prior.
