UFC 127 Fight Card: BJ Penn Vs Jon Fitch Fight Analysis

UFC 127 is just around the corner and the main event is an important matchup for the UFC's welterweight division. Top contenders BJ Penn and Jon Fitch will square off, and the winner will put themselves in line for a shot at the title.

Both men have faced off against the dominant welterweight champion, George St. Pierre, in the past and neither has managed a victory. Both men would love to avenge that loss and become champ, but first they'll have to face each other.

So, let's take a look at how these two match up.

Grappling

We've seen in the past that BJ Penn has remarkable takedown defense. He's flexible and has the balance of a tightrope walker. However, we have also seen him fall pray to elite level wrestlers. George St. Pierre was able to take Penn down at will when they last met, and Frankie Edgar also had some success taking BJ down the last time they fought (although Edgar had trouble keeping BJ down).

Fitch is not as quick as Edgar or as explosive as St. Pierre, but when it comes to grappling he's gritty and determined. If he gets a hold of Penn he's not going to let go until he gets the takedown. Once he gets the takedown he will stick to BJ like glue and give him no room to breath, much like we saw when Fitch fought Thiago Alves for the second time.

Fitch has an obvious grappling advantage going into this fight.

Advantage: Fitch

Striking

Much like the grappling aspect of this fight, it's obvious who has the advantage here. Of the 16 wins Penn has in his mixed martial arts career seven have come by TKO or KO. He has some of the best boxing in MMA and in particular has been noted for his excellent use of the jab. He showed us just how devastating his hands can be in his last UFC fight, knocking out welterweight legend Matt Hughes in just 21 seconds.

Fitch has reasonably good hands, but he has never been known as a devastating striker. He mostly uses strikes to set up the clinch, or the takedown. He will have a four inch reach advantage going into the fight, but BJ's hands are so much better than his that I don't think that will matter.

BJ hits harder and faster than Fitch and he also has better accuracy.

Advantage: Penn

Submissions

Unlike the previous two slides, this area of the fight is close. Jon Fitch has only been submitted once in his career, and BJ Penn has never been submitted. Both men have very good, but very different jiu-jitsu.

Fitch doesn't have very many submission wins to his name, but he has great submission defense. He's excellent at stifling other fighters' jiu-jitsu. Paulo Thiago has a tight jiu-jitsu game and when they met at UFC 100, Fitch handled him on the ground.

Penn has a far more offensive jiu-jitsu game than Fitch. He has had several impressive submission victories inside the Octagon and is a far more accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioner than Fitch. A big reason Penn's jiu-jitsu is so dangerous is his legs. He's become known for being able to use his legs almost like another set of arms, and more than once in the UFC we've seen him trap an opponents arm to help himself sink a rear naked choke.

The issue for Penn is that he doesn't often submit guys from his back. When Penn submits guys it's usually from a dominant position. He'll have to work really, really hard if he wants to get a dominant position on Jon Fitch.

I think, overall, I have to give it to Penn here. He has the more threatening jiu-jitsu. That being said, I don't think he'll catch Fitch with a submission, but it's more likely than Fitch submitting him.

Advantage: Penn

Consistency

Consistency has been an issue in BJ's performances for some time now. We've seen fights where Penn looks unstoppable, but he's also had his share of lackluster performances. In his fight with Diego Sanchez, Penn was a monster, completely shutting Diego down and dominating in every aspect of the fight. However, BJ looked uninterested and his performances were mediocre.

Fitch is probably the second most consistent fighter in the UFC, behind George St. Pierre. The UFC has put opponent after opponent in front of him and, with the exception of his loss to GSP, the results always seem the same. He has faced many fighters with different styles and always managed to bring the fight to his world.

Advantage: Fitch

Chin

There's no disputing it, both of these men have incredible chins. Fitch has only been KO'd once and Penn has never been KO'd, but has lost twice via TKO.

In Fitch's title fight we saw him absorb shot after shot for five rounds and keep going. He was rocked several times, but GSP couldn't put him away. Despite losing, Fitch gained many fans from that fight because a lot of people were impressed with the amount of damage he was able to take.

As far as I know, BJ has never been rocked on his feet in his MMA career. His ability to absorb punches is freakish. His TKO loss to Matt Hughes was due to his inability to escape the position Hughes had him in. Hughes hit him with punch after punch and BJ just looked annoyed. In the fight with St. Pierre, Penn wasn't in any danger of being knocked out. The fight was ruled a TKO victory for GSP because Penn's corner didn't want to see him take anymore punishment.

Both of these guys can take a hell of a punch, but I think Penn has the better chin.

Advantage: Penn

Cardio

Jon Fitch has a seemingly endless tank of gas. He works tirelessly for takedowns and stays on his opponents allowing them no time to breath and never seems tired. In some ways he's like a larger, slower Clay Guida. He suffocates his opponents and he can keep the same pace for a whole fight. Fitch will work just as hard in the last round of a fight as he does in the first, if not harder. This is probably due to Fitch's excellent work ethic. He's not a naturally gifted athlete and so he has to work very hard.

We have seen fights where Penn's cardio has looked good. Penn went to the fourth round in his fight with Kenny Florian and the fifth round in his fight with Diego Sanchez. In both fights Penn looked amazing and didn't seem at all gassed by the end. The thing is those were fights that Penn was able to control. In fights where Penn has been taken out of his comfort zone his cardio has been much less impressive. He looked uncomfortable in both fights with Frankie Edgar and by the end of both fights he was noticeably tired. George St. Pierre was able to control his fight with BJ Penn and he the end of the fourth round in that fight BJ was exhausted.

Fitch is an expert at taking fighter's out of their comfort zones and making them work hard and so I feel like BJ's cardio could be a problem.

Advantage: Fitch

Conclusion

This is a tough fight to call. Ultimately, I think Fitch will win it. BJ has an obvious advantage standing, but I don't think he'll be spending that much time there. Fitch is going to be looking for the takedown early in every round and, with how good a wrestler he is and his size advantage, I think he'll get it. I doubt Fitch will be able to do much with BJ on the ground, but I think he'll do enough to keep the referee from standing it back up. BJ's submissions are great, but I don't think he'll catch Fitch. BJ usually submits guys from the top and he's probably not going to spend any time on top of Fitch and also Fitch is very careful on the ground and rarely makes mistakes.

I think we're going to see a typical Jon Fitch performance. It won't be pretty, it won't be particularly entertaining, but he'll manage to impose his game plan and get the W.

Winner: Jon Fitch by unanimous decision.

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