Duke-North Carolina Rivalry: Top 5 Keys for a Blue Devils' Win Against the Heels
While much has been made of UNC's impressive 10-1 record over the past 11 games coming into tonight's game versus Duke, the Tar Heels have yet to face a Top 10 opponent on the season. During their streak, they have also not beaten or played a Top 25 team in the nation, which includes a loss to ACC bottom-feeder Georgia Tech on the road.
Although the game against the Yellow Jackets was a low-point during the run, Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Roy Williams are trying to make a statement against the Blue Devils in Durham. While all statistics would point to a Duke win, this rivalry has proved that stats should just be thrown out when the two teams collide.
The rivalry, one that pits two of college basketball's top 5 programs against each other on a yearly basis, consistently garners national attention year in and year out, and this season is no different.
Now that the Tar Heels have re-entered the Top 25 rankings and are just one game back of Duke in the ACC standings, the game tonight will receive even more hype and publicity than either of last year's lackluster contests.
What will be the keys to a Duke win tonight against their bitter rivals? What players will need to step up in order to halt UNC's run?
Here are the top 5 keys to a Blue Devils' win tonight in Cameron Indoor.
5. Mason and Miles Plumlee Will Have To Contain UNC's Post-Players
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The key advantage that the Tar Heels have against the Blue Devils tonight will be their length and athleticism in the interior. Headed by John Henson and Tyler Zeller, Duke will have to contain the UNC big men if they want any shot of taking down their arch-rivals.
The two players in particular that will have to have big games on both the offensive and defensive ends for the Blue Devils will be Mason and Miles Plumlee.
While Miles has struggled of late and has seen his minutes slightly decrease, Mason has slowly but surely started to show that his game against Marquette at the beginning of the season (25 points, 12 rebounds, 5 blocks, 3 assists) was no fluke.
Since Duke's loss to Florida State on January 12, Mason has been on a roll, averaging a little over seven points and grabbing nearly 11 rebounds per contest. As a result, he has seen his minutes on the floor increase while playing a major role on defense, blocking shots and collecting rebounds at a furious rate.
However, going up against UNC's front line may cause problems for Mason and the Blue Devils—John Henson (11 points, 8.5 rebounds) and Tyler Zeller (14 points, 7 rebounds) are just two of the Tar Heels' big men that could give Duke problems.
Regardless, if Mason and Miles, as well as the other members of the Duke frontcourt, step up and at least contain the UNC big men, then the Blue Devils should come out on top in front of the Cameron Crazies.
4. Nolan Smith Will Have To Overpower Kendall Marshall at the Guard Position
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It's hard to fathom, but no player in ACC history has ever led the league in both scoring and assists in the same season. Not one player, whether it be a shooting guard, point guard or even big man, has ever achieved this great honor. This season, however, Nolan Smith is looking to become the first player in history to do so.
Averaging 21 points, 5.6 assists and 4.8 rebounds per game, Smith has been Duke's most consistent player all season long and is one of the front-runners for ACC Player of the Year honors. If you asked Nolan, however, he'd tell you that it's not about personal achievements, but about what the team achieves together as one unit.
On the flip side, UNC is in somewhat of turmoil when it comes to guard depth. Just last week, Larry Drew II let head coach Roy Williams know that he was transferring from the program. Although he wasn't starting, he was one of the Tar Heels' best players off the bench and provided leadership for a mostly inexperienced team.
Freshman Kendall Marshall will now take over primarily ball-handling duties and will most likely play for the majority of the game. Due to the lack of guard depth on UNC's roster, this will definitely be one of the areas that Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski will look to attack.
Nolan Smith, one of the best guards in the country this season, will look to again perform well against a nationally-ranked opponent and overpower the young point guard from UNC. If Smith can achieve his goals and get off to a hot start, it's hard to imagine the young Tar Heels coming back from a large deficit.
3. Duke's Sharpshooter's Curry and Dawkins Will Have To Knock Down Open Shots
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Before the season began, Duke already got a boost when Seth Curry (a transfer from Liberty University who had to sit out all of 2010) became eligible to play. Although he was not allowed to play in games for the Blue Devils last year, the players all said that he challenged each of them to give their all in practices throughout Duke's championship season.
Andre Dawkins, who already has one season of experience under his belt, has had a fantastic season up to this point. After playing a small role on last year's team, Dawkins now leads the Blue Devils in three-point field goal percentage and boasts one of the highest percentages in the entire ACC.
Curry and Dawkins will both play instrumental parts in Duke's offense against the Tar Heels tonight, looking to get open shots and knock them down. If they each start to knock down three-pointers early, then the Blue Devils' offense will get rolling and will become hard to slow down.
As previously stated, the UNC guard depth is depleted at the moment and with two freshman playing crucial parts in the Tar Heels' offense, it will be up to Duke's sharpshooters to gain the advantage. Marshall will be guarded by Smith, so Curry and Dawkins will match up against Reggie Bullock and Leslie McDonald, two talented-but-young guards.
If both Curry and Dawkins play well on defense, but more specifically get open shots and knock them down early in the game, the Blue Devils will become a well-oiled machine that will be nearly impossible to stop.
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2. Kyle Singler Must Find His Rythm for the First Time Against a Ranked Opponent
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While much of the attention has been on Nolan Smith and his outstanding senior season, it's hard for opposing teams to overlook the other senior member of the team, Kyle Singler. While his scoring numbers may not be where most fans would like, Singler has still had a great season so far and will look to continue his success against the Tar Heels when they face off tonight.
Although the loss of Kyrie Irving may have helped to improve his statistics some, Singler has been scoring at a consistent rate all season long. The only time that it seems he may struggle is when the Blue Devils have a game against a nationally-ranked opponent.
On the season, Singler is averaging 18 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game. When Duke plays against a ranked opponent, however, Singler's numbers drop considerably, averaging just 13 points, 5 rebounds and 0.5 assists per contest.
While these may not be horrible numbers, they are not the kind of statistics that you want to see one of your two best players averaging against other ranked opponents on the year. Once it gets to March and the Blue Devils are competing in the NCAA Tournament, many of the teams they could potentially play will most likely be ranked.
So while this is not cause for concern at the moment, this is still a statement game for Singler. If he goes out and scores 20 or more points against the Tar Heels, then all of this nonsense can go to rest. Still, though, Singler has yet to perform well against a ranked opponent and needs to get back on track tonight against UNC.
1. The Blue Devils Will Have To Play Collectively Well on Offense and Defense
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The majority of the attention during UNC's impressive 10-1 run has been on Harrison Barnes, a highly-touted recruit who declined a scholarship to play at Duke and instead became a Tar Heel. While he struggled during the start of the season, his play as of late has been what most fans expected to see out of him on a regular basis.
The Blue Devils, meanwhile, have also had two great consecutive games on defense. The first game, on the road against Maryland, came just three days after being blown out by St. John's at Madison Square Garden. Against the Terrapins, however, Duke was poised and focused on both sides of the court, winning the game 80-62.
The following game, the Blue Devils came out once again prepared to face one of their main rivals, the NC State Wolfpack. The Duke defense played tremendously and the offense got it done when needed in a second straight rout, 76-52.
After holding their past two opponents to an average of 57 points while scoring 78 points themselves, the Blue Devils' offense and defense will once again look to shut down UNC on offense while exploiting them on the defensive end of the court.
If Duke comes out prepared and alert on defense, they can slow down the Tar Heels, force them into careless turnovers and finish on the fast break.
This will be the major key to the game for the Blue Devils and if they accomplish each one of these goals, there's no doubt that they will win their third consecutive game against their bitter rivals.
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