Washington Basketball: 10 Reasons Why a Weak Pac-10 Will Hurt Come Tourney Time

A familiar motivational saying ("If it is to be, then it's up to me") may become the theme of the remainder of the Washington Huskies' season.

Obviously, every team must get it done on the court. But there are some seasons when the strength of the conference you play in will cover some of your miscues along the way (see this year's Big East).

With the weakened status of the Pac-10 again this year, only the conference teams that "get themselves in" will be dancing in March.

In fact, besides the team that gets an automatic bid by winning the postseason conference tournament, every other Pac-10 team will have to do it the old-fashioned way...it will have to earn it.

Last year, Cal and Washington were the only two conference schools to make it to the NCAA Tournament.

There may not be any more than two Pac-10 teams selected again this year.

Let's look at 10 reasons why a weak Pac-10 will hurt the Huskies (and anyone else in the conference) come tournament time.

The Pac-10's Low Conference Sagarin Rating

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SYRACUSE, NY - MARCH 25: Abdul Gaddy #10 of the Washington Huskies drives for a shot attempt against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the east regional semifinal of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at the Carrier Dome on March 25, 2010 in S

Jeff Sagarin is a sports statistician, well-known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating teams in a variety of sports.

His ratings have been used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to help determine the participants in the NCAA tournament since 1984.

The Pac-10 is currently No. 7 in the Sagarin Power Ratings...two spots behind the Mountain West Conference, for cryin' out loud!

1.  BIG EAST    

2. BIG TEN  

3.  BIG 12  

4.  ATLANTIC COAST 

5. MOUNTAIN WEST

6.  SOUTHEASTERN

7.  PACIFIC-10   

8.  CONFERENCE USA               

9.  ATLANTIC 10                 

10.  COLONIAL

Did anyone, when they heard that Utah and Colorado were coming into the Pac-10, think that both schools would be stepping down a couple (or several) levels into Pac-10 basketball?

Yes, I know that these things are cyclical, but seventh?

To be fair, BYU and San Diego State are having fantastic seasons, but it is almost unbelievable to see the Pac-10 conference ranked so low, especially after being ranked No. 1 just two years ago (2009).

So there will be no bonus points for the Huskies this year for having played in the seventh-toughest conference in the country, the Pac-10.

The Individual Teams of the Pac-10's Low Sagarin Ratings

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 11: Calvin Haynes #22 of the Oregon State Beavers drives between Matthew Bryan-Amaning (L) #11 and Venoy Overton (R) #1 of the Washington Huskiesl in the second half during the Quarterfinals of the Pac-10 Basketball Tournament at

More than half of the teams in the Pac-10 have a current Sagarin Rating over 70. That's not good: 

Arizona: 16

Washington: 30

Washington State: 48

UCLA: 52

Cal: 72

USC: 80

Stanford: 107

Oregon: 119

Arizona State: 133

Oregon State: 181

Usually, the "bubble teams" are no higher than the upper forties or low fifties.

What this means is that when the Huskies beat most of the teams in conference, they aren't credited with a "good win."

When they lose to most of the teams, the Huskies get a "bad loss."

Ironically, both Washington and Arizona have lost to Oregon State. Bad losses...

Another strike against the Pac-10!

The Pac-10 Isn't Doing Well Against Top 25 and Top 50 Teams

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GREENSBORO, NC - DECEMBER 18: Jordan Hamilton #3 of the Texas Longhorns shoots over Reggie Bullock #35 of the North Carolina Tar Heels at Greensboro Coliseum on December 18, 2010 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

The Pac-10 has not fared well against the highest-ranked teams in the nation.

They are currently 4-20 against Top 25 teams and 17-39 against Top 50 teams.

The Pac-10 hasn't had many "big wins" yet this season.

Purely from an RPI standpoint, UCLA’s victory over BYU in December stands as the league’s best win (current league-leader Arizona lost at BYU by 20).

Close behind that win is USC's victory over No. 7 Texas, which I still can’t figure out.

To compare, the Mountain West is 11-25 vs. Top 25 and 18-30 versus Top 50 teams.  

In some past years, I'm sure some of the top Pac-10 schools each had two, three or even four wins against Top 25 or 50 teams apiece in pre-conference play.

Not this year!

The Pac-10 Is Not Doing Well Against the Other BCS Conferences

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LAWRENCE, KS - DECEMBER 02: Joshua Smith #34 of the UCLA Bruins shoots over Markieff Morris #21 of the Kansas Jayhawks during the game on December 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

So far this season, the Pac-10 is 12-19 versus the five other BCS conferences (Big Ten, Big East, Big 12, ACC and the SEC)...not exactly an impressive résumé builder.

Washington hasn't fared well in this category either. The Huskies are 2-3 against BCS conference opponents.

When it comes to comparing and contrasting teams for Selection Sunday, this is just one more facet where the Pac-10 comes up lacking.

The Pac-10 has Not Done Well Against the Mountain West Conference

This is not something that the NCAA Selection Committee will specifically look at, but this just amazed me...

There is something wrong (to me) when the Pac-10 is only 2-4 against the MWC.

Sure, the Mountain West is the No. 5-rated conference, and the Pac-10 is No. 7.

Yes, Jimmer Fredette has it going on in Provo. I know that Steve Fisher has the best team in San Diego State school history.

This is one more sad aspect for a weak Pac-10 in a challenging year.

The Pac-10 Has Not Had Many Ranked Teams in 2010-11

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COLLEGE PARK, MD - FEBRUARY 2: Nolan Smith #2 of the Duke Blue Devils dribbles to the basket during a college basketball game against the Maryland Terrapins on February 2, 2011 at the Comcast Arena in College Park, Maryland. The Blue Devils won 80-62. (Ph

Not many ranked teams? Talk about an understatement...

The only two teams in the Pac-10 that have been ranked this entire season have been Washington and Arizona.

Out of the 14 weeks of rankings, the Huskies have been ranked 10 weeks.

Arizona has been ranked two weeks.

For four solid weeks, there weren't any ranked Pac-10 teams.

For comparison, the Big East currently occupies seven (count 'em, seven) of the top 15 spots in the ESPN/USA Today rankings.

The Pac-10 has the Reputation of Being Soft

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LAS VEGAS - NOVEMBER 20: Anthony Marshall #3 of the UNLV Rebels passes the ball as Josh Gasser #21 and Keaton Nankivil #52 of the Wisconsin Badgers defend during their game at the Thomas & Mack Center November 20, 2010 in Las Vegas, Nevada. UNLV won 68-6

The Pac-10 has forever been thought of as a conference that is long on finesse and short on physicality.

The style of play of most teams has been offense first and defense when you needed to play it...maybe.

This year is no different.

Only Stanford is ranked in the scoring defense top 50—No. 40.

Washington State is the only Pac-10 team that is ranked in the field goal percentage defense top 50 at No. 7 (38.1 percent).

The problem that this causes for Pac-10 teams is that when they hit the NCAA Tournament and play opponents from the Big Ten or Big East that are used to playing pressure defense, they sometimes fall apart.

The Pac-10 is Short on Teams that Rebound Well

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GREENSBORO, NC - DECEMBER 18: Tyler Zeller #44 and John Henson #31 of the North Carolina Tar Heels block a shot by Jordan Hamilton #3 of the Texas Longhorns at Greensboro Coliseum on December 18, 2010 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo by Kevin C. Co

Even though statistically Washington is one of the best rebounding teams in the country (40 rebounds per game, No. 13 nationally), they do not face great rebounding teams and quality big men every night in conference play.

The next two teams in the Pac-10 are UCLA (No. 61) and Cal (No. 152).

When Matthew Bryan-Amaning and Aziz N'Diaye go up against a team like Pitt that sends all five players to the glass, how will they do?

When they face North Carolina, with a starting frontcourt of Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes, how will they keep them off the boards?

Who knows? It might be a different matter if the Huskies were used to playing teams that crash the boards.

The Pac-10 has a Small Supply of Elite-Level Players

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Derrick Williams. Klay Thompson. Tyler Honeycutt. The list of players that will go on to the NBA that the Huskies play in Pac-10 games may not be any longer than this.

This hasn't been the case in the recent past. Kevin Love. Russell Westbrook. Darren Collison. O.J. Mayo. DeMar DeRozan. Taj Gibson. Chase Budinger. Jordan Hill. Jerryd Bayless. James Harden. The Lopez twins...do I need to keep going?

Lots of early-entry players. Lots of one-and-doners.

Without playing against elite-level players throughout the conference season, it may be more difficult to defend against them when Washington faces them in the tournament.

The Pac-10 Doesn't Have Many Great Point Guards

Huskies guard Isaiah Thomas is the only Pac-10 guard listed as a Bob Cousy Award finalist. The Cousy Award is given to the top collegiate point guard.

In fact, Thomas was one of only two 2010-11 nominees from the conference. The other was Reggie Moore from Washington State.

The Mountain West had four nominees.

Historically, teams that do well in the tournament feature good guard play, especially good production from the point guard position.

While the Pac-10 is not "point guard weak" in 2010-11, the Huskies do not face top-level floor leaders game in and game out.

This is one more potential adjustment that Washington will have to make.

(By the way, fan voting is open until March 8 at www.cousyaward.com.)

The Huskies Are Going to Have to Get Themselves In

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LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 12: Head coach Lorenzo Romar of the Washington Huskies gives instructions in the game with the Stanford Cardinal during the semifinals of the Pac-10 Basketball Tournament at Staples Center on March 12, 2010 in Los Angeles, Californ

I love Pac-10 basketball. I want the best for the conference teams when it comes to Selection Sunday.

There are no free passes for the Pac-10 this year.

After the automatic bid that the conference tournament winner receives, everyone else will have to claw, fight and beg their way into this year's NCAA Tournament.

Lorenzo Romar has been talking very confidently about the Huskies' ability to turn things around and make a run in the tournament. He's been here and done this before.

But in most past years, the conference's status has been enough to help teams that are close.

This year, Washington and everyone else will have to do it on their own.