UFC 128, Jon Jones and Mauricio Rua: Why Hype Cometh Before the Fall

Years ago, an unknown, unheralded light heavyweight competitor fought his way into the UFC. Upon his arrival, he began to dispose of his competition with graceful ease, providing highlight reel moment after highlight reel moment.

This man became the next big thing in the light heavyweight division. He was viewed as an unstoppable juggernaut with a style that no fighter in MMA could hope to figure out.

And then he lost.

The tale described above—which sounds almost identical to that of rising star Jon “Bones” Jones—is actually the story of Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida.

MMA fans across the globe would do well not to jump on the Jones bandwagon too quickly, lest it derails from a right hand courtesy of light heavyweight kingpin, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua. The same thing happened to Machida, and the same may happen to Jones just as quickly.

Jones, while gifted and skilled, is not invincible, and we have yet to see him face a skilled, experienced striker that will test his chin and his heart and force the 23-year-old to face adversity the likes of which he hasn't seen in his career thus far.

Shogun Rua is this striker.

Don’t forget that he was the man that ended the “Machida Era” before it even began. It is entirely possible that he will do the same thing to the “Jones Era”.

When one examines Jones’s opponents, there is not one fighter that comes close to the skill and experience that Shogun possesses. The two best strikers that Jones has fought were Stephan Bonner and Brandon Vera, one of which is no longer in the UFC.

Alternatively, when one examines Rua’s opponents, it can be seen that Shogun has fought top-tier strikers and grapplers, as well as men who have similar frames to Jones.

Shogun has bested the likes of Quentin “Rampage” Jackson, Antônio Rogèrio Nogueira (a.k.a. “Little Nog”), Alistair Overeem (twice), Ricardo Arona, Cyrille Diabate, Kevin Randleman and Chuck Liddell.

Jon Jones cannot boast of such impressive victories. In fact, three out of Jones’s last seven opponents are no longer in the UFC. That only leaves four of his opponents being UFC caliber. Out of those four, only Ryan Bader stands out as top competition.

Aside from comparing Jones to Machida, one can also compare Jones to the Vitor Belfort of the 1990s. Belfort was in a position very similar to that of Jon Jones. He was a ferocious, young—19 years old when he would fight Randy Couture for the first time—prospect, dominating people and was being touted as the next big thing.

When he met Randy Couture—a man who had been wrestling longer than Vitor had been alive and was an Olympic alternate in Greco-Roman wrestling—he was dominated by the far more experienced fighter.

In addition, Shogun has been on the biggest stages of MMA, having fought for titles in both Pride and the UFC. While Jones has been in a main event before, it cannot compare to the hype, media attention and amount of spectators that will all be present at UFC 128. Will Jones be able to deal with all of this?

The hype train of Jon Jones is approaching the crucial junction reached by many would-be legends. All that remains to be seen is if it passes this junction, bringing Jones into the realm of superstardom, or if it derails in a spectacular wreck that will be remembered for years to come.