Maryland Basketball: Back To Reality

Now that the Maryland Terrapin’s 106-point vacation, known as the Longwood Racers, is over, it’s back to the cold reality of the ACC.

March has come early for the Terps; from here on out, every game Maryland plays is a must-win.

The crucial stretch begins with two vital road games against Boston College and Virginia Tech, two teams that beat Maryland at the Comcast Center earlier in the season. Avenging those losses on the road would go a long way in getting the Terps back on the bubble.

From there, Maryland can solidify a berth with games against Florida State in College Park and North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

The key for this stretch run will be Sean Mosley, who finally broke out with a 20-point performance against Longwood Wednesday night. This is not to diminish what Mosley has done all season long in other facets of the game, but if Maryland wants to dance this coming March, Mosley has to pick up some of the scoring slack.

Other keys will be getting more consistency out of Cliff Tucker, who can be great one night and then disappear the next. Tucker may be Maryland’s most skilled player, but he has to bring it every night, not just in the big games.

The recent play of freshman point guard Pe’Shon Howard should be cause for optimism for the Maryland faithful. His composure and running of the offense has been a joy to watch over the last week, but it’s one thing to perform against the likes of Wake Forest and Longwood and another to do it against the upper-echelon of the ACC.

And Howard is not alone in his mastery of creating for others. Throughout the year, Maryland has been one of the better passing teams in the country, exemplified by the Terps’ 28-assist performance Wednesday night.

But this is what has been so perplexing about the 2010-11 Maryland basketball season. There is not one thing outside of free throw and three-point shooting that Maryland does not do well. They are the darlings of the stat gurus.

Take Ken Pomeroy, who runs kenpom.com, for example. His rankings are derived from a number of factors, including strength of schedule, his adjusted offensive rating, his adjusted defensive rating and, of course, winning percentage.

Now his top five is similar to just about everyone’s; he has Ohio State ranked first, followed by Kansas, Texas, Duke and Pitt.

But he has Maryland ranked 17th.

Yes, you read that right, 17th… in the nation.

Unfortunately, Maryland is ranked 312th in Pomeroy’s luck rating, which is calculated by using something called the “correlated Gaussian method,” which I think you need a PhD in statistics to understand. But it has something to do with deviations away from projected winning percentage.

Translation: Maryland is not getting results to match how well they’re playing.

But how do you fix that?

Well, for starters, win some games!