The Pan Report: UFC 126 Odds, Bargains For Silva and Belfort

Following a string of successful fight cards, the UFC is treating MMA fans to yet another action-packed card Saturday in Las Vegas when it presents its gala event, featuring a middleweight championship bout between champion Anderson “The Spider” Silva and Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort.

Silva (27-4) will be returning to the Octagon for the first time since his eleventh-hour triangle armbar submission win over Chael Sonnen in August last year. The champion had never faced such opposition in the UFC, as illustrated by statistics compiled by CompuStrike. Silva was hit a total of 208 times in his previous 11 fights in the UFC, compared to Sonnen’s prolific 289 strikes administered to the champion during his seventh successful title defense.

Although most of those were thrown from a dominant ground position against the champ, that number remains nothing short of remarkable. Saturday’s bout against Belfort won’t have him preparing for such a peppering nor as conditioned an opponent, but the best pound-for-pound fighter in MMA will expect more power and speed.

Belfort (19-8), not known as a ground and pound aficionado, will have a firm preference for throwing fast strikes with both feet planted on the mat. Such is Belfort’s usual strategy, devastating hooks from both hands, yielding an impressive 13 wins by KO. Striking-wise, both are very effective for different reasons, Silva preferring accuracy, Belfort opting for power.

After his impressive finish over Sonnen, Silva can legitimately claim the upper hand in that category. On the ground, their credentials are virtually the same, though Silva’s submissions wins over BJJ black belt Travis Lutter and reputed wrestler Dan Henderson, never mind Sonnen, have him at a substantial advantage over Belfort.

Odds for this one have Belfort entering the Octagon the underdog (+175) against Silva (-220), Belfort lines heavily mortgaged on a short fight, the Brazilian middleweight having a reputation to fade as the fight progresses. Knowing Belfort’s strategy usually consists of bullying his opponents into a brawl, something that also favours Silva’s style, not much appears to be helping the challenger apart from his power.

At that price, it seems evident those lines are a bargain, and more so for those betting on Silva. As a point of comparison, Jon Jones is a 4-1 (-300) favourite over the undefeated Ryan Bader (+220). Though he shows immense promise, Jones is nowhere near Silva’s level of dominance and the rising star hasn’t accomplished nearly enough to dethrone Silva as the best pound-for-pound fighter in MMA. Bader’s wins over Schafer, Jardine and Nogueira don’t qualify him as an easy rival either.

Why is there such a rush to buy into Belfort’s finishing abilities against one of the most evasive fighters ever to enter the Octagon? Considering Silva eases into the fight within the first minutes to get a sense of his opponent’s timing, Belfort will need to bullrush Silva and never let up to avoid the same fate suffered by Silva’s earlier opponents. This is the likeliest possibility favouring Belfort, and one that appears overvalued.

The most difficult bout to handicap on the main card will pit New York Times best-selling author Forrest Griffin (17-6) against Rich Franklin (28-5-1). This light heavyweight fight opposes two top-ten fighters sharing similar attributes. Griffin comes in the underdog (+125) against Franklin (-155). Griffin’s size advantage might be the decisive factor in this balanced match-up.

Either way, those who wager on this bout stand to receive a handsome return. Those who won’t will still benefit from a great fight that in all likelihood will go the distance. Griffin is supposedly feeling a bit blue nowadays, so Franklin by UD seems likely.

Another much anticipated fight featured on the main card will pit a rising top ten light heavyweight prospect, Jon ‘Bones’ Jones (11-1) against another aspiring champion in Ryan Bader (12-0). Jones is overwhelmingly favoured against Bader. Both have strong wrestling pedigrees, but Jones’ unorthodox style and his ability to consistently leverage his size advantage (reach and height) have helped nudge betting lines in his favour. Whatever the outcome of this bout, it is a likely candidate for the Fight of the Night award, or any other derivation (KO or SUB of the Night).

The welterweight bout with Jake Ellenberger (23-5) and Carlos Eduardo Rocha (9-0) is as one-sided according to oddsmakers as Bones-Bader is. Ellenberger is the heavy favourite (-300) against Rocha (+220), the submission specialist. The breadth of Ellenberger’s skill set and his experience amply justify the tilt on that scale.

The first fight to air on the scheduled PPV broadcast will feature the first-ever bantamweight clash to take place under the UFC banner. Former WEC champion Miguel Torres (38-3) will fight against Antonio Banuelos (18-6), going in with a 13-inch reach advantage over his wrestler opponent.  Torres is the heavy favourite (-350) against Banuelos (+250). Expect Torres’ Muay Thai to overwhelm Banuelos and prompt an early stoppage.

Lines by betus.com. 

For more texts and pics, check out the blog at www.mmazu.wordpress.com