Road to the Super Bowl Card: UFC 126 Breakdowns and Predictions

Jordy McElroyJun 3, 2018

The UFC attempts to blow the roof off the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday with a super bowl card chock-full of MMA stars.

A superfight awaits in the headliner as Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva looks to defend his throne against fellow Brazilian and dangerous striker Vitor Belfort.

In the co-main event, former champions Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin will dual it out in hopes of furthering themselves into contention for the Light Heavyweight title.

The future will become the present as top prospects Jon Jones and Ryan Bader finally square off.

With the WEC/UFC merger out of the way, the lighter guys will finally get an opportunity to showcase their skills on the main card of a major UFC event. Former WEC champion Miguel Torres is set to square off against Antonio Banuelos.

It's that time again. Most of you already know the drill. The time has come for you to feast on some manly induced knowledge in preparation for the fights on Saturday. Snatch a cold beverage out the fridge and get comfortable. It's breakdown time.

As always, I encourage you to read my breakdowns to see why I made the predictions that I made. At the end of the breakdowns, I will have my official picks listed. Thanks for reading. Enjoy the fights!

Anderson Silva Vs. Vitor Belfort

1 of 6

Key Victories :

Silva (Forrest Griffin, Rich Franklin, Dan Henderson, Demian Maia, Chael Sonnen, Nate Marquardt, Patrick Cote, Thales Leites, Chris Leben, Hayato Sakurai, Carlos Newton, Jeremy Horn)

Belfort (Rich Franklin, Wanderlei Silva, Gilbert Yvel, Heath Herring, Matt Lindland, Marvin Eastman, Terry Martin)

Forecast :

Fans should thank the MMA gods for this truly fantastic match-up. The reemergence of Vitor Belfort as a UFC title contender has been a spectacle in itself. His ability to fight through past inconsistencies and personal tragedies is nothing short of amazing.

Will it be enough to knock off the proposed pound-for-pound king? The anticipation is building as two of the most dangerous strikers in the sport prepare to collide. Belfort will face the toughest challenge in his MMA career when he takes on Middleweight Champion Anderson Silva.

Silva was born in Sao Paulo, Brazil. He trains at Black House with world-class fighters like Lyoto Machida, the Nogueira brothers, Jose Aldo, and Junior Dos Santos. His well-rounded credentials include a black belt in Tae Kwon Do, a black belt in BJJ, a yellow belt in Capoeira, and a black belt in Judo.

Silva is considered by many as the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. His list of UFC accomplishments include the following: most consecutive wins (12), most successful title defenses (7), most consecutive title defenses (7), and longest title reign. At UFC 117, Silva endured a five round beating from Chael Sonnen and earned the submission victory late in the fifth round.

Born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Belfort is a former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion. He trains at Xtreme Couture with Randy Couture, Forrest Griffin, Gray Maynard, and Martin Kampmann. In 19 wins, 13 have come by knockout.

Belfort is a black belt in BJJ, a blue belt in Shotokan, and a black belt in Judo. He made his UFC return at UFC 103, where he scored a first round KO over former Middleweight Champion Rich Franklin.

Keys to Victory :

If Silva hopes to stay in this world of consciousness, he has to stay away from unnecessary, close-quarter exchanges. Belfort tends to catch opponents off-guard with his ability to explode inside and fire off lightning quick combos. Silva can quell the storm by staying mid-range and using his long limbs to pick Belfort apart.

When Belfort is hurt or on his heels, Silva can tighten the range and seek out the clinch. Belfort is at his best when he's the aggressor. In the clinch, Silva should be able to tee off with knees and punches.

This doesn't even have to be said, but Silva shouldn't attempt reckless taunting with a dangerous striker like Belfort. There won't be any safe Hudson River landing for Silva's airplane taunt in this fight. Belfort will be ready to pounce on every opening.

Fans don't need Broadway-like antics to get excited for a Silva fight. He is arguably the most dominant fighter in the sport, and that's all we need to see on Saturday.

If Belfort goes into grappling mode, Silva could find himself fighting from his back. He has to keep an active guard and avoid idling on the ground like he did against Sonnen.

Belfort has to have an aggressive mindset coming into this fight. He needs to keep Silva from getting into a rhythm and setting up his offense. This can be done by cutting the cage off and making Silva uncomfortable. Sonnen used a similar tactic in his near upset of the champion in August 2010.

Distance is crucial in this bout. If Belfort is unable to close the gap, Silva will carve him up all night on the outside. Belfort has tremendous power and speed, but the technical superiority belongs to "The Spider".

Silva's opponents in the past have watched in awe at some of the things he's able to do in the octagon. It's unsettling to see world-class fighters like Rich Franklin and Forrest Griffin dominated so effortlessly. Belfort needs to stick to his game plan and avoid being mesmerized by the unique things Silva is able to do.

The ground is an area Belfort should try to exploit. Silva's wrestling is his obvious Achilles heel. Belfort, who was a 2001 ADCC bronze medalist, doesn't get much credit for his ground game, but he is definitely a competent BJJ player. The threat of takedowns would also open up more opportunities in the standup.

Prediction :

This is an exceptionally tricky fight to predict. The easy prediction would be to go with Silva. Technically, he possesses more tools than Belfort on the feet. Belfort doesn't have the wrestling chops to threaten Silva with takedowns like Sonnen was able to. Even if Silva is taken down, he has proven on a consistent basis that his BJJ abilities should be feared along with his striking.

There are moments in sports when things happen that are beyond our understanding. How did Matt Serra knock out Georges St. Pierre? Why did the undefeated New England Patriots lose in the Super Bowl to the New York Giants? Did Team USA really defeat the mighty Soviet team in the 1980 Winter Olympics?

While a win for Belfort isn't nearly as shocking as any of these, it would be big enough to rattle the core of an MMA world banking on a Georges St. Pierre and Anderson Silva superfight.

The perfect storm is brewing. George Clooney didn't make it...Mark Wahlberg didn't make it...and Anderson Silva won't make it. Fans can expect lighting to strike on Saturday. After losing a lackluster first round, Belfort will storm out in the second and put the champion's lights out with a salvo of punches.

Forrest Griffin Vs. Rich Franklin

2 of 6

Key Victories :

Griffin (Mauricio Rua, Quinton Jackson, Tito Ortiz, Chael Sonnen, Jeff Monson, Stephan Bonnar)

Franklin (Chuck Liddell, Wanderlei Silva, Yushin Okami, Matt Hamill, Evan Tanner, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry, David Loiseau, Jorge Rivera, Ken Shamrock, Marvin Eastman)

Forecast :

While Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin aren't exactly alike, they mirror one another in several ways. Despite them both being well-rounded, neither fighter stands out in any one particular area. They are both former champions with unwavering heart and determination.

Both men have also starred in straight-to-DVD action movie roles. Who knows? Maybe they'll get to film a "Tango & Cash" remake together. Before any of that, Griffin and Franklin will go to war in a bout that should be considered a heavy favorite for "Fight of the Night". The ER should be a perfect place for an after party.

Fighting out of Las Vegas, Nevada, Griffin trains and teaches at Xtreme Couture and Throwdown Training Center. His teammates include Randy Couture, Gray Maynard, Vitor Belfort, and Martin Kampmann. Known for slugging it out on the feet, Griffin is a black belt in BJJ with seven career submission wins. It's been over a year since he's last competed.

At UFC 106, Griffin rebounded from back to back losses and took a split decision victory over Tito Ortiz, avenging a previous loss in April 2006.

Fighting out of Cincinatti, Ohio, Franklin is a brown belt in BJJ under his close friend and MMA fighter Jorge Gurgel. There isn't a specific gym Franklin trains with. He tends to follow coaches –– Gurgel, Neal Rowe, Rob Radford, Joel Jamieson, and Matt Hume –– around to various gyms. In 28 wins, Franklin has ended 15 by knockout.

Despite a broken hand, he put the nail in the coffin of the storied career of MMA legend Chuck Liddell by first round KO at UFC 115.

Keys to Victory :

The key for Griffin in this fight is using his massive size to wear Franklin down. He has the ability to exchange with Franklin in the open, but his best chance of victory will come from his ability to close the distance and rough Franklin up in the clinch. It's almost coincidence that Randy Couture is Griffin's coach. This is the same strategy Couture has used throughout his legendary MMA career.

Griffin has to take a page out of Couture's book. He needs to press Franklin against the cage and use clinch strikes to setup the take down. This is a dangerous fight for Griffin if fought in the open. Unlike Tito Ortiz and Stephan Bonnar, Franklin packs enough dynamite in both hands to sing Griffin his lullaby.

Franklin obviously wants to keep his distance in this bout. Whether on the ground or against the fence, he has to avoid getting trapped underneath Griffin for extended periods of time. When the distance closes, Franklin needs to circle away from the cage and force Griffin to exchange in the open.

In the exchanges, Franklin needs to fire off short combinations and avoid lingering in the pocket. Griffin will constantly be looking for opportunities to setup the clinch and work for take downs. This should be Franklin's primary concern in this fight.

Despite his improved boxing, Griffin hasn't shown finishing power on the feet. Franklin won't have to worry about Wanderlei Silva or Liddell-like power, but he will have to deal with Griffin's persistence and willingness to engage.

Prediction :

This fight has split decision written all over it. The long layoff will hurt Griffin as Franklin edges the exchanges and fights out of bad positions to earn the extra nod. The attending fans won't take the decision well. Regardless of the decision, we'll all win in the end as Griffin and Franklin give fans a fight to remember.

Jon Jones Vs. Ryan Bader

3 of 6

Key Victories :

Jones (Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, Jake O'Brien, Stephan Bonnar)

Bader (Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Keith Jardine, Eric Schafer, Carmelo Marrero)

Forecast :

Despite walking separate paths, Jon Jones and Ryan Bader knew their roads would cross one day. The hype is over. It is finally time for two of MMA's most highly touted prospects to do battle.

On Saturday night, one man's train of momentum will continue as he elevates his status to title contender, and the other will be faced with the bitter sting of defeat for the first time.

Born in Rochester, New York, Jones was a 2005 state wrestling champion at Union-Endicott High School and a national Junior College Champion at Iowa Central Community College. He trains at Jackson's MMA alongside Georges St. Pierre, Rashad Evans, Nate Marquardt, and Shane Carwin. Listed at 84.5 inches, Jones has the longest reach out of any active fighter on the UFC roster.

Despite the loss on his record, Jones has never been defeated in MMA competition. The lone loss stems from a December 2009 disqualification in a bout with Matt Hamill. The fight was halted after Jones began teeing off on Hamill with illegal elbows. Since the loss, Jones has defeated two notable veterans in Brandon Vera and Vladimir Matyushenko.

Fighting out of Scottsdale, Arizona, Bader trains at Power MMA and Fitness, where he's put in work with C.B. Dollaway, Aaron Simpson, and Robbie Lawler. At Arizona State University, he wrestled alongside Dollaway and current UFC Heavyweight Champion Cain Velasquez. Before college, Bader was a two-time state wrestling champion at Robert McQueen High School.

Like Jones, Bader has never been defeated in his MMA career. He is coming off wins over Keith Jardine and top ranked Light Heavyweight Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

Keys to Victory :

Jones is by far the more dynamic striker, but he'll have to watch out for Bader's fastball overhands. There isn't much technical prowess to Bader's stand-up, but he throws every punch with bad intentions. It could spell trouble for "Bones" if his head is caught in the crosshairs of one of Bader's missiles. Jones needs to be patient with his offense and force Bader to make a mistake.

He should be able to use his reach to pick Bader apart on the outside with kicks and one-twos. If he can't land on the feet, Bader will be looking for an opening to explode inside with the power double and drag the fight to the ground. Jones has to be careful when attempting high risk maneuvers to avoid being put on his back. The key to Jones' success is to vary up his attack and keep Bader guessing.

Bader has to be aggressive in this fight. He can't give Jones any chance to settle into an offensive rhythm. Barring a lights out hay maker, this fight won't be won by Bader on the feet. He needs to use his stand-up to setup the take down.

All take down attempts should come from out in the open. Bader doesn't want to get into clinch wars with a guy like Jones, who has vicious knees and flashy Greco-Roman skills.

If Bader gets Jones to the ground, he has to emphasize control over guard passing. We haven't seen much of Jones from his back, but Bader can't take anything for granted. He needs to maintain top control and pepper Jones with punches. This should drain the confidence of the Jackson student.

If the fight goes the distance, Bader has to avoid getting sloppy and leaving himself open in the exchanges. Cardio issues have plagued the former Sun Devil in the past.

Prediction :

In ways, Jones can be compared to former Light Heavyweight Champion Lyoto Machida. There is an enigma about him that makes it hard for his opponents to guess what he's going to do. The way in which he tossed Matt Hamill about like a stuffed animal should raise a level of concern for Bader fans in this fight.

These moves aren't just "flashy", but Jones is showing a technical understanding and efficiency in his craft that is beyond his years. UFC commentator Joe Rogan may have said it best in the UFC 126 preview.

"Jon Jones is a star," said Rogan. "He's one of those guys that comes along every few years and just stands out."

Coming in a significant underdog, this is Bader's chance to steal some of Jones' swagger and propel himself further up the Light Heavyweight food chain.

With that said, the force won't be with "Darth" on Saturday night. Look for Jones to pick Bader apart in the exchanges. As frustration sets in, Bader's over-zealousness will open him up to take downs and major punishment on the feet. Bader is a legit Light Heavyweight, and fans shouldn't expect a quick finish. After the final bell sounds, the scorecards should spell out the unanimous verdict for Jones.

It's hard to pick against the apprentice of Master Yoda, aka Greg Jackson.

TOP NEWS

Bleacher Report1w

Bleacher Report1w

Carlos Eduardo Rocha Vs. Jake Ellenberger

4 of 6

Key Victories :

Rocha (Kris McCray)

Ellenberger (John Howard, Mike Pyle, Pat Healy)

Forecast :

Amidst a stacked card, this fight seems a bit out of place. This bout would've served better on the Facebook stream, and the fight between Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto and Demetrious Johnson could've been bumped to the main card.

This is a tremendous opportunity for Jake Ellenberger and Carlos Eduardo Rocha. We'll see if they take advantage of this gifted time in the spotlight.

Born in Cabedelo, Paraiba, Brazil, Rocha trains in Hamburg, Germany at Dárcio Lira Jiu-Jitsu. He is a black belt in BJJ. In nine wins, Rocha has finished eight by submission. Only one of those fights made it out of the first round. Rocha is currently undefeated in his MMA career. At UFC 122, he made his UFC debut and submitted "TUF Season 11" runner-up Kris McCray in the first round by knee bar.

Fighting out of Orange County, California, Ellenberger trains at Reign Training Center with Mark Munoz, Krzysztof Soszynski, and James Irvin. He is a blue belt in BJJ, but his strength lies in his wrestling. At the University of Nebraska at Omaha, Ellenberger is an assistant wrestling coach.

Along with his strong wrestling acuity, Ellenberger possesses devastating power on the feet, notching up 15 career KO wins. At UFC on Versus 2, Ellenberger earned a TKO (doctor stoppage) after impregnating John Howard's eye.

Keys to Victory :

If Rocha doesn't want to get knocked up like Howard, he has to put forth a solid defensive effort. Ellenberger is like a pitbull in the exchanges, and Rocha doesn't have the stand-up chops to deal with that sort of heat. Rocha needs to stay out of wild exchanges and pop in and out of range with simple kicks and one-twos.

With that said, a three round stand-up battle isn't what Rocha wants in this fight. He needs to get the fight to the ground and work his BJJ magic. It won't be easy against a strong wrestler like Ellenberger. If on his back, Rocha needs to stay active in his search for sweeps and submissions. He'll also need to cover up and protect himself from Ellenberger's nasty ground-and-pound.

Being the superior wrestler, Ellenberger should be able to dictate the action in this fight. He needs to be aggressive in the stand-up and test Rocha's chin. Opportunities to take the fight to the ground will be there throughout the bout, but Ellenberger may want to keep the fight standing. Rocha will practically jump into guard to get the fight on the floor, where he can utilize his black belt level BJJ.

Ellenberger should be fine in every area of this fight as long as he avoids getting sloppy. One mistake is all it takes for Rocha to lock in a submission and send Ellenberger home with a shortened check.

Prediction :

Rocha may have a spotless record, but the horrendous level of competition that was continuously placed in front of him isn't much to boast about. Stylistically, Ellenberger is a nightmare match-up for Rocha, who doesn't have much to offer in the stand-up or wrestling department.

Unless the Brazilian pulls off a crazy submission, Ellenberger should have his way with Rocha en route to a second round TKO stoppage.

Antonio Banuelos Vs. Miguel Torres

5 of 6

Key Victories :

Banuelos (Scott Jorgensen, Kenji Osawa)

Torres (Takeya Mizugaki, Yoshiro Maeda, Charlie Valencia, Manny Tapia, Chase Beebe)

Forecast :

With such a star-studded card, it's unfortunate that this Bantamweight tilte hasn't received much publicity. Luckily, the lighter guys are notorious for stealing the spotlight on big cards.

Fans should be on the lookout for a possible "Fight of the Night" sleeper when former WEC Bantamweight Champion Miguel Torres takes on tough WEC veteran Antonio Banuelos.

Fighting out of Arroyo Grande, California, Banuelos trains at The Pit with John Hackleman, Court McGee, and MMA legend Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell. His style consists of wrestling and boxing. Some remember him from season one of the reality television show Tapout. Compiling a record 14 fights, Banuelos was the most used fighter in the WEC promotion.

At WEC 51, he defeated Chad George by unanimous decision.

Miguel Angel Torres was born in East Chicago, Indiana. He is a black belt in BJJ and a Muay Thai specialist. Once considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Torres is a former WEC Bantamweight Champion. His submission win over Charlie Valencia at WEC 51 snapped a two-fight losing streak to top Bantamweights Brian Bowles and Joseph Benavidez.

Torres currently trains at Tristar Gym alongside Kenny Florian, Jon Jones, and UFC Welterweight Champion Georges St. Pierre.

Keys to Victory :

Torres' height and reach makes him exceptionally unique and tough to deal with at 135 pounds. At 5 feet 9 inches tall, Torres' reach is listed at 76 inches, which mirrors Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. Banuelos has to find a way to close the distance. If he stays outside, Torres will do surgery. Banuelos has to find a way inside the pocket and load up on the overhand.

Close range won't present Banuelos with a safe haven to camp out in. He'll have to pop off punches quickly as he moves in and out of range. Torres is nasty from the clinch when he cinches up the Muay Thai plum. Banuelos needs to frustrate Torres with constant movement and bait him into unnecessary exchanges.

The ground is a place best avoided. Torres has locked up 23 submission finishes in his MMA career, and Banuelos doesn't have the BJJ chops to hang in that area.

Torres needs to establish distance in this bout by utilizing an effective jab. Former Bantamweight Title contender Scott Jorgensen lit Banuelos up with a steady jab at WEC 48. Torres needs to find similar success on the outside with his offense.

Banuelos will likely look to close the distance in this fight. Torres has to be ready to circle off or counter the much shorter fighter with knees from the clinch. The key for Torres is patience. He can't allow himself to get into wild exchanges and become the victim of a random hay maker.

Prediction :

Against Charlie Valencia, fans saw a more calm and methodical Miguel Torres. This isn't a good sign for Banuelos, whose primary hope lies in landing a big punch. Look for Torres to tear Banuelos apart in the exchanges. Banuelos will eventually make the mistake of charging forward with his neck exposed, and Torres will latch on the guillotine choke for the second round finish.