2008 NFL Pulse: Early Hot & Cold Teams

By Derek Lofland, NFL director at Football Maniaxs

It is never too early to start looking at teams that have really set themselves up well and teams that have really buried themselves into a deep hole.  Remember 0-2 or 2-0 doesn’t guarantee anything in this early stages of the season.

In 2007, the San Diego Chargers started 1-3 before rebounding to an 11-5 season and AFC Championship title. The New York Giants started 0-2, yet rebounded to finish 10-6 and win the Lombardi Trophy.  Meanwhile the 49ers started 2-0 en route to a 5-11 season.

Still it is possible to set yourself up for a good season or set yourself up for a disaster by how you play the first couple of weeks.  The Cowboys, Packers, Colts, and Patriots were the four teams that earned first round byes in 2007. All of them started the season 4-0.  A bad September can ruin your entire season.  Just ask the New Orleans Saints who never really recovered from a 0-4 start last year.

What you have to remember is that with only 16 games, each game is a big deal.  We have already played 12.5 percent of the NFL schedule. When 12-4 is sometimes not good enough to secure home field you can't afford to start the season 0-2 and expect to be hosting home playoff games. Every loss hurts.

I decided to make a list of 10 teams and divided them up into three areas.

Teams that have set themselves up to have a good season, teams that have really dug themselves a hole, and teams that have started off slow, but could rebound.

Here is what I came up with:

Early Season Winners:

Green Bay Packers (2-0) 

It doesn’t get any better than this. The Packers were worried about how their team would respond with a new quarterback under the biggest microscope the NFL has ever seen.  Not only have they played well, but also Rodgers has looked great. 

Both wins being in the division is a huge plus. To have one third of your division games played and be 2-0 is a big deal. They have an early two-game lead on Minnesota and Detroit and a one-game lead on "Da Bears."

Green Bay gets a tough game against Dallas next week. After that, they play the Buccaneerss away, Falcons, and at the Seahawks. Those games won’t be cupcakes, but none of those teams are among the elite teams early in the season.

The Packers have an excellent chance of heading into their October 19 game with the Colts sitting at 5-1 or 4-2 with no losses in the division.  That would be an excellent scenario for a team many thought would be in chaos.

Green Bay is not guaranteed a playoff season. They have a very poor backup quarterback situation with two rookies.  Even New England who lost Brady had a backup that had been on their team for three seasons. Ryan Grant has been slow to start the season.  They will need him to be healthy. 

The Packers couldn’t have scripted this start any better.  Great start for the Green and Gold.

Denver Broncos (2-0) 

Same situation as the Packers.  They knocked off their biggest rival in the division in San Diego and they also beat Oakland.  A 2-0 record in the division is a very nice start to the season.

Jay Cutler is playing lights out and Brandon Marshall looks to be in fine form. The back by committee is working well and they have found their second receiver in Eddie Royal.  The one concern is the defense, but the season has gone very well early in the year.
 
The Broncos play three of their next four games at home.  They play New Orleans, @ Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Jacksonville.  Other than New Orleans, none of the other teams have very explosive offenses at this point. The schedule sets up well for Denver continuing their early season success.  5-1 or 4-2 with a 3-0 record in the division is very realistic.

Arizona Cardinals (2-0) 

Arizona had to start fast with San Francisco and Miami on the schedule and they did just that.  Kurt Warner looks like the MVP quarterback from St. Louis of yesteryear. 

Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both playing very well.  The defense is playing well. Things look good in the Desert.

The schedule is a little tougher for the Cardinals in the next four weeks.  They play @ Washington, @ NY Jets, Buffalo, and Dallas. Arizona could realistically go 3-1 in that span or 1-3.

They would seem to be a big underdog at Dallas and the other games could go either way.  It’s important that they build on their good start and continue to take care of the football.  The NFC West doesn’t appear to have a dominant team in the division right now so as long as they don’t take too big of a dive they should still be in good shape as we approach mid-season.

Carolina Panthers (2-0)

When the Panthers suspended Steve Smith for the first two games of the season for a fight with his teammate, Ken Lucas, in practice many people thought the Panthers were headed for a disaster. They had to play @ San Diego and the Bears, which both have very good defenses.

Without Smith it didn’t look like they’d have much of a chance.

The Panthers didn’t blow the roof off the house with their offense, but they scored a very respectable 26 and 20 points in those two games.

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart has been a great running back combo. Jake Delhomme hasn’t played great, but has made the big plays when it matters.

The Panthers have a very nice schedule coming up as well. They play @ Minnesota, Atlanta, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. I would not be surprised if Carolina is 5-1 headed into a big showdown with the New Orleans Saints on October 19.

Early Season Disasters:

Seattle Seahawks (0-2) 

Part of their problems have been injuries and part of it has been very poor play.  Let’s start with the injuries.

No offense can afford to have three receivers go on IR (Nate Burleson, Logan Payne, and Ben Obomanu).

No offense can afford to have three receivers go IR when Seneca Wallace, Maurice Morris, Deion Branch, and Bobby Engram are already out.  Rob Sims was lost for the season on the offensive line.  It’s no wonder that Hasselbeck is struggling out of the gate.

Billy McMullen, Keary Colbert and Koren Robinson were added to the team to give them some skill position talent.  Still the offense scored 24 of the team’s 31 points last week. 

The defense and special teams have not held up their end of the bargain.  The Seahawks gave up two special teams touchdowns to the Bills.  The 49ers scored 33 points on the Seahawks. 

Patrick Willis helped with that by returning an interception 86 yards for a touchdown, but there is no doubt the Hawks’ defense is not playing as well as it did last season.  San Francisco scored three points in eight quarters against the Hawks in 2007.

It really doesn’t get any easier for Seattle. They play the Rams, which is a must win.  If they lose this game, their season may be done.  They get a bye and then play @ NY Giants and Green Bay Packers.  Those two teams are playing much better than the Hawks.  Then the Seahawks play @ Tampa Bay.

If Seattle can beat the Rams and Buccaneers and pull the upset against either NY or Green Bay, they can get back to .500 and should be in position to contend in the division. 

However, they need to start getting players back faster than new ones are getting injured. Based on how the season has started it is not unrealistic to think the Hawks will be 2-4 or 1-5.  That is not something we have seen in a long time.

Cleveland Browns (0-2)

This team had high hopes for 2008 and just has not lived up to expectations.  They are 0-2 at home, which is never a good sign, although both losses were to good teams like Pittsburgh and Dallas.

What is of concern is how poorly the offense has played, which was supposed to be the strength of this team.  The Browns have only scored 16 points this year.  You can blame some of that on the weather in Week Two, but the weather was fine against Dallas and Cleveland struggled to score points in that game too. 

Braylon Edwards has five catches for 46 yards on the season.  The Browns will not win five games if he doesn’t start playing better.

The Browns have to win their next two games @ Baltimore and @ Cincinnati.  Those are not very strong football teams and are divisional games.  The Browns can’t go into their bye week 1-3 or 0-4 with a losing record against the division.  They can’t expect to make up ground after the bye when they play New York Giants, @Washington, and @ Jacksonville.

It also doesn't help that the Steelers have started strong at 2-0 and won at Cleveland.  If I was going to name another team that set themselves up well, the Steelers would have been it.  There just wasn't enough room to talk about every team. 

The Browns can still recover from this mess, but they have set themselves up very poorly.  Given how bad they have looked on offense it doesn’t leave a lot of hope that they will pull out of this anytime soon.

Minnesota Vikings (0-2)

The Vikings are a team in desperate need of a win.  The loss at Green Bay was not awful.  The home loss against Indianapolis was inexcusable.  They settled for five field goals and blew a 15-0 lead in that ball game. 

The Vikings have already benched QB Tarvaris Jackson and made the move to start Gus Frerotte.  It is a bad sign that the Jackson experiment only made it to Week Two.  Frerotte has played well at times in his career, but realistically this is a band-aid at best.

Things don’t get any easier for the Vikings.  They play Carolina, @ Tennessee, @ New Orleans, and Detroit.  This is realistically set up for a 1-5 start if they don’t start stopping the pass and getting some production in their passing game.  The Vikings have their work cut out for them in the next four weeks.

Detroit Lions (0-2) 

This is a team that started well in 2007 going 6-2, before limping to a 7-9 record.  They played great in the preseason going 4-0.  The thought was that without Mike Martz and a commitment to running the ball the Lions could finally get over the hump.  

Given the quarterback situations in Minnesota and Chicago and the quarterback controversy in Green Bay, Detroit was considered a dark horse by some to contend for this division behind the veteran play of Jon Kitna.

The problem is the Lions are still the Lions. They can’t stop the run or the pass. Michael Turner set an Atlanta franchise record with 220 yards rushing with two rushing touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers passed for 328 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Lions rank 32nd in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in rushing yards per attempt, and 23rd in passing yards allowed.  Kitna is still throwing big picks.  He has 538 yards passing with four touchdowns, but also has four picks including two that Green Bay returned for touchdowns.

Detroit now plays three of their next four games on the road.  They play @ San Francisco, Chicago, @ Minnesota, and @ Houston.  While none of those four teams are elite clubs, Detroit isn’t going to beat anyone if their defense continues to play this bad.   Mike Martz may be gone, but the problems from last year still remain.

Still Okay:

San Diego Chargers (0-2) 

San Diego fans can’t be happy that the Chargers are sitting at 0-2, again. Norv Turner’s squad is limping out of the gate again.  However, the Chargers could just as easily be 2-0. 

They lost on a last second play to the Panthers.  They had a tough call go against them in Denver and lost that game with :24 seconds left.  Phillip Rivers is as hot as any QB in the NFL and is tied for the league lead with six touchdown passes.

The Chargers have a tough game with the NY Jets coming up this week.  The worry is that Brett Favre could go off in that game like he did last year against the Chargers.  After that they play @ Oakland and @ Miami before drawing the Patriots at home. 

There is no reason to think this team can’t be 3-2 heading into the Patriots game.
It’s unfortunate for the Chargers they are 0-2, but they can recover from this.  Other than Denver, the AFC West is in rebuilding mode.  They still get Denver in San Diego.

They have a good team and are playing well in spots.  They just need to have something go their way.  They are a lot better off than some of the other 0-2 teams.   At least they don’t have to worry about reinventing themselves like the St. Louis Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, or Cleveland Browns.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) 

This is another team that just hasn’t caught a lot of breaks.  They have a really bad injury problem on the offensive line and at the receiver spots.  They only lost by seven to Tennessee and by four to Buffalo. 

Those teams are a combined 4-0.  They were in both those games in the fourth quarter.  The offense just isn’t scoring enough points to win.

The big problem has been the lack of running game.  David Garrard is not good enough to carry the team with no running game. 

The Jags are 25th in rushing attempts, 27th in rushing yards, and 29th in yards per attempt.  They have one rushing touchdown.  It seems impossible to think that keeps up for the entire year with Fred Taylor and MJD running the ball.

The Jaguars caught a break playing the Colts with no Bob Sanders.  The Colts have not stopped the run well and that injury makes things worse.  This could be a good week for the Jaguars to get the running game going and build an offensive identity.  If they win that game, they are even with the other favorite in the division with a 1-2 record.

The schedule isn’t great the next four weeks. The Jags play @ Indy, Houston, Pittsburgh, and @ Denver.  Then they get their bye and three games against Cleveland, @ Cincinnati, and @ Detroit.  That should be enough to pull them out of the slump. 

If they can just get to 2-4 or 3-3 heading into their bye, they should be able to get back above .500 by Week 10.  If they can be healthy at that point they could make another strong second half push like they did last season.

What are your thoughts on your favorite team?  Do you feel good about their start?  Like their chances for a big year or just hoping they can get a victory before the season ends.