Chase Round Two: Headin' to Dover

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One bad race has plenty of Kyle Busch backers jumping off the band wagon.  A broken bolt and a bad attitude made the once invincible looking Busch look anything but.

I wouldn’t count the Shrub out of the Chase yet however.  Then again, maybe I will.  I don’t like the signs of reemerging immaturity from the younger Busch.  He has never been in a Cup championship run before.  His reaction to the handling problems that cost him his chance at a good finish in the first Chase race wasn’t what one would call “grace under fire”. 

Even with the 34th place finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle’s year-to-date Loop Driver Rating remains the series’ best at 109.7 and he has third best stats for the coming race at Dover International Raceway.  Average the two and he still tops the sheet - 108.3.   Busch has led fully 21 percent of all Sprint Cup Series laps run in 2008.  It’s to soon to say he’s choking.  But it is something to watch.

Does Biffle Carry the Big Mo?

Another driver to keep an eye on is Roush-Fenway Racing’s Greg Biffle.  Not only did the Biff  win the first Chase race, but he holds top stats for Dover Downs too.  Biffle has Series beating stats in nine of the 16 Loop Data Box Score categories for Dover.  His Ave Position - 6.3 and Finish - 5.4 make sense when you see that he’s run 95.5 percent of the last seven Monster Mile races in the top 15.  His 393 Laps Led are second to Matt Kenseth’s 491.  He leads with 267 Fastest Laps and a Driver Rating of 116.1.

Besides Kyle Busch, only Carl Edwards - 104.5 -  has a higher Average Driver Rating for Dover and year-to-date  than Biffle 104.3.  Edwards finished third at Loudon behind Biffle and Jimmy Johnson.  Carl has the best Ave Finish for all of 2008 - 9.8, the most Fastest Laps and has run more Laps in the Top 15 than anyone - 77.9 percent  He’s been consistent and looked poised at New Hampshire. 

Winning Championships is Learned Behavior

And so did Jimmy Johnson.  But as the two-time defending Cup Champ,  he has been here before.  It wasn’t easy though.  The winner of the last two Chase’s came into the first two Chase playoff’s as one of the favorites.  He dominated the regular season races in 2004 and 2005 only to fail in the actual Chase itself.  Some things have to be learned.  Johnson did, but others have yet to prove they have. 

Johnson has been so good the last four years that his Loop stats are strong for nearly every track.  But his 2008 season-to-date numbers are third best overall too.  His combine Driver Rating is fourth for Dover at 103.3.  He doesn’t lead any categories but has three wins, four top fives and eight top tens.

A Field Full of Winners

Matt Kenseth, as said, has the second best Driver Rating for Dover and he’s had 11 top tens and six top fives to go with a win.  I just don’t like the team body language out of the No. 17.  They finished 40th at New Hampshire, through no real fault of Kenseth.  But as Matt said after the race, if they ran up front more, they wouldn’t get caught in other folks’ problems as much.  Not a winning combination right now.

Martin Truex Jr and Jeff Gordon are tied for the next best combined DR for Dover.  Truex got his first win here in 2007 and Gordon has four wins on the concrete mile.   Gordon also has five DNFs to go with 14 top fives and 19 top tens.  That no. 24 just hasn’t looked like much of a threat lately.  I’ll have to see something before I can pick Jeffy again.

Tony Stewart, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr, Kyle Bucsh and Kenseth all join Gordon, Johnson and Edwards as past winners on the Monster Mile.  Stewart, Gordon and Johnson are the multiple winners.

I wrote about my thoughts on Stewart’s chances here.  Dale Junior is another who seems maybe to be feeling the heat.  He was in mid-meltdown mode Sunday over his radio with crew chief Tony Eury  when team owner Rick Hendrickcame on the line and cooled things down.  Junior’s stats for Dover aren’t eye popping but combined with his good overall 2008 numbers, his DR is a respectable 91.3.  I do think that Earnhardt will win a race or two in the Chase, but it’s going to be hard to predict.  And I won’t pick him here.

Jeff Burton just seems to be tough to pick anywhere.  He’s nearly always good, with terrific consistency.  But Dover is an anomaly for Burton.  The guy who nearly always finishes, has five Dover DNFs.  He has a combined DR of 90.1.

I’m going to go with the stats - and see if there is anything to this momentum stuff - I’ll take Greg Biffle to win.  The darkhorse rider this time is Ryan Newman.  Sixth best Dover DR - 99.7, third best Ave Finish of 8.3 and third most Laps in the Top 15.

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