Silva vs. Belfort: Seven Factors That Will Decide the Fight
Two and a half years ago, Vitor Belfort made his debut in the middleweight class. A hard-fought battle with Terry Martin energized the crowd that night at the Honda Center and ended with Belfort's opponent hanging in the ropes after a second round knockout.
Once the fans were done cheering, they started talking about whether Belfort could be the man to supplant Anderson Silva in the UFC’s middleweight division. Of course, Silva made his light heavyweight debut that same night and he easily dispatched James Irvin.
Whether they realized it or not, the two Brazilians were now on a collision course. That course comes to a conclusion on Saturday. The fight is for the UFC’s middleweight title, but it could also go a long way to determining which man is the best striker of his generation.
Let’s take a look at some key factors in this fight.
Ring Rust
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The last time that Vitor Belfort stepped into the Octagon was September 18, 2009. That’s a 16-month layoff. Fighters are notorious for discounting the ring rust effect before the fight and acknowledging its significance afterwards. This will be the longest layoff in Belfort’s career.
He fought Chuck Liddell and Gilbert Yvel after 13-month layoffs and went 1-1. He also fought Marvin Eastman and Wanderlei Silva off of 11-month and 10-month layoffs respectively and scored two of the most impressive knockouts of his career.
Ring rust is always a factor, but it appears that Belfort will be able to limit that effect. When you’re going up against Anderson Silva, being anything less than 100 percent can be disastrous.
Which Anderson Silva Will Show Up?
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Anderson Silva has won 12 straight fights in the Octagon, but he has shown himself to be a schizophrenic fighter. We have seen four different incarnations of “The Spider” since his UFC debut in 2006:
1. The Muay Thai wrecking machine who showed Rich Franklin, Chris Leben, Nate Marquardt, and James Irvin absolutely no mercy.
2. The disinterested fighter who seemed to confuse title bouts with Patrick Cote, Thales Leites, and Demian Maia for sparring matches.
3. The cocky fighter who fought Forrest Griffin with his hands at his waist and relied solely on head movement for defense.
4. The off-form fighter who was dominated by Chael Sonnen for over 20 minutes before pulling out a submission.
Which Anderson Silva will show up against Vitor Belfort? If No. 1 shows up, then the fans will get their money’s worth. If No. 2 shows up, we could be in for another long and boring evening. If No. 3 or No. 4 show up, count on a Belfort win via KO.
Speed Vs. Accuracy
3 of 7This fight is billed as two of the best strikers in the world finally facing off. Combined they have 28 wins by KO/TKO, usually in the first round. Belfort has some of the fastest hands in the sport. Silva possesses uncanny accuracy.
Because he has such an advantage in hand speed, Belfort usually relies on his boxing in a fight, but he has deadly knees as well. If he didn't, then we may never have known what Marvin Eastman's skull looks like.
Silva is a true Muay Thai practitioner, utilizing all “eight limbs” in equal measures. And he is equally accurate as well.
Which attribute will prove decisive in the striking battle?
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The Ground Game
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Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort are both dominant strikers and neither has ever seemed to think about a takedown in a fight. Neither fighter has displayed much in the way of takedown defense either.
Will one of them try to catch their opponent by surprise by shooting for a double-leg? If nothing else, a few attempted takedowns could confer an edge in the striking game. However given both fighters’ history, it seems unlikely that either fighter will go for a takedown.
But if the fight does hit the mat after a knockdown, then who has the edge? Both fighters are BJJ black belts. Belfort has two submission victories to his name, but the last one was in 2001. Silva has had 3three submission victories in his career but he has also has two losses via submission.
I’m inclined to give Silva the edge here, but only because we rarely see Belfort work his jiu-jitsu.
The Championship Rounds
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Belfort has never been in a five round title fight before. Silva has gone into the fifth round on three occasions. If the fight does go into the championship rounds, that will probably favor Silva since he has been there before.
Who’s Got The Best Chin?
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Both fighters are knockout artists. When either one lands a clean shot, they are used to seeing their opponent laid out in front of them. This fight could be decided by which fighter can take more punishment.
Neither fighter has ever been knocked out from a standing position, but neither fighter has faced a striker of this caliber before. If either Silva or Belfort is able to walk through the other’s strikes, then that could be the difference on fight night.
Who Will Make The First Move?
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Putting two fighters with a propensity for counter-striking in the cage together can be a risky move. Even when he’s feeling aggressive, Silva will feel out his opponent for the first minute or two of a fight. We’ve even seen the bizarre sight of Silva angrily motioning his opponent to engage as he refuses to do so himself.
Belfort likes to counter-strike as well. Odds are that neither fighter is going to come out swinging. Which one is willing to move first? Will the other one make them pay for it?
Despite the fact that he is the middleweight champion, Silva cannot afford to have another boring fight. After UFC 112, Dana White threatened to relegate Silva to the undercard if he ever fought like that again.
The UFC has been falling in and out of love with Belfort since 1997. Since he dropped to 185 lbs, the love affair is back on. A slow paced fight wouldn’t hurt Belfort as much as it would Silva.
How much will this play into each fighter’s mind on Saturday?
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