Nobody's Perfect: Finding Flaws With The Nation's Top 10 Basketball Teams
No college basketball team is perfect.
Every preseason, select teams are anointed as the country's cream of the crop, prohibitive favorites to make a deep run into March and possibly win a national championship. Some years, a single squad is universally lauded as the nation's best. Others, a school or two rises from unranked obscurity to stake their claim as one of the NCAA's elite.
Hyped in October or not, history tells us that a given season's top basketball teams will eventually go through bumps in the road and show their warts. Growing pains of the country's elite are felt in November, the heart of conference play and even the days leading up to NCAA Tournament play.
What makes a true national title contender is whether a squad can truly overcome it's deficiencies or mask them by raising it's play in other areas. Because one thing is for sure, especially this season; if a team has an obvious, uncorrectable flaw, it will be exploited by opponents. Today, that's no big deal. In six weeks, though, its a different story.
Every school in the country – even top ranked and lone remaining undefeated Ohio State – has exhibited a potential achilles heel this season that could come back to haunt them come tourney time.
No. 10, Kentucky: Inability to Win Away From Home
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The young Kentucky Wildcats got off to a fast start this season, racking up an impressive 12-2 non-conference record. Considering those two losses came on the road to perennial powers Connecticut and North Carolina, all was well in Lexington heading into SEC play.
Today? Not so much.
UK stumbled right out of the gate in league play, losing on the road to Georgia. Over their next six contests, John Calipari and company have compiled a mediocre 3-3 record, including a narrow loss last night to annual whipping-boy Ole Miss.
The common them in Kentucky's losses? The Wildcats were playing away from the friendly confines of Rupp Arena.
At 16-5 and still within striking distance of SEC East-leading Florida, UK is in no danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. However, if they can't get their act together on the road, Kentucky will lose out on a top four seed and be forced to play far away from home.
If that's the case, expect an early March exit from the Wildcats. They need a top seed. Badly.
No. 9, Notre Dame: Lack of NBA Talent
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Playing in the rugged Big East, number nine Notre Dame will certainly be battle tested by the time March comes around. At 17-4, the Fighting Irish have enjoyed a very successful and somewhat unexpected first months of the season.
G Ben Hansbrough and F Tim Abromaitis lead the charge for ND, and are surrounded by a nice collection of established role players like F Carleton Scott. Simply, the Irish are a very good college basketball team that relies on great teamwork and senior leadership to thrive.
The problem with that? Notre Dame lacks any semblance of NBA talent, as evidenced by not a single a player ranked in ESPN draft guru Chad Ford's top 100 prospects.
History tells us every true contender has multiple pro talents on it's roster. The Fighting Irish, unfortunately, have none. They'll be a tough out come tourney time, but don't realistically have a chance of cutting down the nets in March.
No. 8, Brigham Young: What If Jimmer Is Shut Down?
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BYU, led by superstar G Jimmer Fredette, is arguably the country's top mid-major. In fact, the Cougars were one of the NCAA's last remaining one-loss teams before suffering a setback to unranked New Mexico. Included in their scintillating start were wins over Utah State, Arizona and seventh ranked San Diego State.
So what could derail the Cougars? The question on everyone's mind is what will happen to BYU when Fredette – a runaway favorite for National Player of the Year – has an off night. Due to the consistently stellar play of the star senior, we've yet to garner evidence to come up with a clear answer.
The likely verdict? BYU isn't stingy enough on defense and won't have enough offensive fire power to beat the big boys if Fredette is locked down.
At the very least, Jimmer and friends will make for very exciting basketball in March. But, they just aren't deep and talented enough to win a title.
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No. 7, San Diego State: No Go-To Guy Or Offensive Cohesion
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Unlike the vast majority of mid-major squads, seventh ranked San Diego State doesn't lack for athleticism. Sophomore F Kawhi Leonard is one of the country's most explosive players in college basketball, and is surrounded by several other plus athletes.
The Aztecs were one of the country's last undefeated teams before suffering a loss to Fredette and BYU in a rare clash of Mountain West powers, and have since got back on track with a dominating win over Wyoming.
San Diego State has used all that athleticism to rank as one of the nation's elite defensive teams. Statistical expert Ken Pomeroy has the Aztecs 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and an eye-popping third in block percentage.
What will hurt SDSU in March when they play teams with similar athletic talents is their play on the other end of the floor. In crunch time, who will they go to for a basket? As evidenced by their late game performance against BYU, the Aztecs don't even know the answer.
Perhaps worse, San Diego State is a miserable 224th in assists per made basket according to Pomeroy. When defensive intensity picks up in the tournament, a team needs easy baskets through offensive sets. The Aztecs, clearly, will struggle to get them.
No. 6, Connecticut: Inexperience and Reliance On Kemba Walker
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For all intents and purposes, the Connecticut Huskies are a BCS level mirror of BYU, with star Kemba Walker playing the role of Fredette.
UCONN came out of preseason obscurity to take the college basketball world by storm, and is currently a stellar 17-3 with all three losses coming against ranked opponents. Walker is one of the country's top few players, and has been assisted by improved play from youngsters Alex Oriakhi, Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier.
The issue for coach Calhoun's team is obvious when looking at statistics: Walker scores a staggering 32% of the Huskies points per game. Obviously, relying so much on one player is not a recipe for success in the NCAA Tournament. Combine that with the inexperience of sophomore Oriakhi and freshmen Lamb and Napier, and UCONN's prospects of it's first national title since 2004 look bleak at best.
The Huskies will be a difficult out, but are still too green to win a championship. Maybe next year (if Walker stays, of course).
No. 5, Duke: Reliance On The Long Ball
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Early in the year, Duke was living up to the hype as college basketball's unquestioned best team. Even the most biased fan would have admitted that the Blue Devils were an easy favorite to repeat as national champions.
All that's changed, though, since star freshman Kyrie Irving went out indefinitely with a toe injury.
Coach K and company are coming off an embarrassing 93-78 loss to St. John's, a game that plainly exhibited what may be the team's fatal flaw: a reliance on making three pointers. In the humbling defeat, Duke made just five of their 26 three point attempts, and appeared unable to adjust even as it was obvious it wasn't their night from deep.
The Blue Devils have two stars in seniors Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler that are versatile enough that this shouldn't be an issue, especially considering the long range acumen of players like Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry. If Smith and Singler focus on making plays closer to the basket area and limiting covered tries from deep, Duke will be much, much better off.
Don't get confused; the Devils are still one of the few legitimate title contenders in 2011. But if their three point attempts aren't falling, they'll be in trouble in March.
Note: Duke is one of three teams to currently rank in the top 15 of Pomeroy's adjusted offensive (ninth) and defensive (10th) efficiency ratings. Since 2004, every NCAA champion has been among the nation's top 15 in both categories.
No. 4, Pittsburgh: Conservative Defense
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Since rising to prominence on the college basketball scene in the early 2000s, Pittsburgh has been known for it's physical, stingy defense. At 20-2 and ranked fourth in the country, the casual basketball fan would assume this version of coach Jamie Dixon's Panthers is relying on their defensive exploits to garner such an impressive resume.
Oh, how wrong that fan would be.
Behind Gs Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker, Pitt has established itself as arguably the most effective offensive attack in college basketball. The Panthers rank first in the country in Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding percentage, and second in assist percentage. Clearly, this is a squad that plays a strong and aggressive brand of team-first basketball, a style that is perfectly suited for postseason play.
Where the Panthers struggle – for a traditionally elite team, at least – is on the other end of the floor. Though they are a respectable 37th in defensive efficiency, Pitt is a pathetic 300th among division one schools in turnover percentage. Such a statistic begs a simple question.
When Pittsburgh faces a team that is able to slow them down offensively, how will they get easy buckets? Forcing turnovers and creating points off of them is a hallmark of most great teams. For the Panthers, that couldn't be farther from the truth.
If Pitt goes up against an elite defensive team, how will they react? They can't play a game in the 50s or 60s, and that will be a huge factor in determining how deep they advance into March.
No. 3, Texas: Too Much One-On-One Play
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Presently, there isn't a team in the country is playing better basketball than the third ranked Texas Longhorns. UT ended Kansas' 69 game home winning streak two weeks ago, and blew out ranked foes Missouri and Texas A&M in the last few days.
The Longhorns have their usual slew of top shelf talent this year, led by prolific scorer Jordan Hamilton and freshman big Tristan Thompson. Unlike past seasons, though, the 2011 'Horns are absolutely elite defensively. They rank first in the country in Pomeroy's defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense, and have ridden their stifling defensive play to a 20-3 record.
Though Texas makes their mark on defense, they are no slouch offensively, ranking 25th in efficiency on that end of the floor. What could hold them back come March, though, is their reliance on one-on-one play.
Hamilton, Thompson, J'Covan Brown, Gary Johnson and Cory Joseph (UT's five best players), all do most of their damage on the scoreboard through isolations. As a result, the Longhorns are a lowly 212th in the country in assist rate.
If UT faces a team with strong individual defenders that can limit the effectiveness of multiple Longhorns, they may struggle to score. Fortunately for Texas, though, their awesome defense should keep them in most every game.
No. 2, Kansas: Lack of a Star Perimeter Player
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After an emotional week long stretch that included a player's mother's death and funeral, a first loss of the season, a conference road win and a home victory over rival KSU on ESPN's College Gameday, the Kansas Jayhawks needed some normalcy. Fortunately, they got it yesterday in dominating fashion by beating Texas Tech 88-66.
Standing at 21-1 and second in the nation, the Jayhawks have reason to smile. They rank in the top 10 on offense and defense in Pomeroy's efficiency ratings and field goal percentage, and fare well in numerous other categories. Statistically, this may be the most impressive team in the country.
Aesthetically, the Jayhawks aren't too shabby either. No squad poses as great an interior due as that of Marcus and Markieff Morris, and few possess greater talented depth or more experience. KU scores inside and out with tremendous accuracy, and is typically stellar on defense.
So, what could ail Kansas? The lack of a star performer on the perimeter.
Coming into the year, it was assumed that the combination of established play-maker Tyshawn Taylor and freshman phenom Josh Selby would form one of the most devastating backcourt tandems in college basketball. Thus far, all hasn't gone according to plan.
Taylor and Selby are taking longer to mesh than expected, and the latter has only offered fleeting glimpses of dominance normally displayed by top ranked high school prospects. There's a growing adage that guard play wins in March, and recent champions suggest that assumption is true.
Selby, Taylor and their backcourt mates certainly have the time and ability to grow into something special. But, it needs to be sooner rather than later, as March is quickly approaching.
Note: Along with Duke and the following slide's team, is one of three squads ranked in the top 10 of both Pomeroy's offensive (seventh) and defensive (fourth) efficiencies. Since 2004, every NCAA champion has been among the nation's top 15 in both categories.
No. 1, Ohio State: Inexperience and Lack of Depth
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As the lone remaining undefeated and consensus number one team in the country, finding anything wrong with Ohio State at this point is nitpicking.
The Buckeyes have a player of the year candidate in C Jared Sullinger, a prolific, talented wing in William Buford, a well-rounded three point marksman in Jon Diebler and one of basketball's most versatile swingmen in David Lighty. Combine those four players with two first-rate freshman and an experienced, defense-oriented big man, and Ohio State has arguably the most talented top seven in the nation.
On the strength of those seven, OSU is ranked in the top five of both Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiencies, and is among the nation's elite in numerous other statistical categories. Quite simply, on paper and the hardwood, the Buckeyes are elite.
What potential issues could halt OSU's quest for a championship? Well, its not only the lack of talent beyond that top seven, but the youth and inexperience among it.
Beyond the aforementioned players, coach Thad Matta doesn't have a reliable player at his disposal. The other four guys on the Buckeyes roster all play less than ten minutes per game, and all have recorded recent "DNPCDs." If one of the top guys goes down, where will Matta look?
Just as troubling is the youth and inexperience of three of OSU's best. Sullinger was joined in Matta's 2010 recruiting haul by two other impact freshmen, G Aaron Craft and F Deshaun Thomas. If Ohio State is to cut down the nets in March, they'll be the youngest team to do so since the 2003 Syracuse Orangemen. Against a field that includes experienced, topflight squads like Kansas, Duke and more, will the young Bucks rise to the occasion?
If Ohio State can stay healthy and the freshman continue their stellar play under postseason scrutiny, the Buckeyes should be favorites come March. But, those are two big ifs.
Note: Though Duke and Kansas also rank in the top 10 of both Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiencies, Ohio State is the nation's only team to rank in the top five of each category (second in offense, fifth in defense).
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