Anderson Silva vs. Vitor Belfort: UFC 126 Gambler's Preview

Here is my handicapping article for UFC 126. I have yet to lose on any published handicaps. Feel free to review my past strategies that were spot on, including Silva's last fight versus Chael Sonnen:

Jones -231
Bader +279
Jones inside of rounds -150

Serious value play betting on Ryan Bader. Bader is 12-0 and the line is skewed because of how dynamic of a fighter Jones is (11-1 only loss a DQ). A dynamic fighter will often sway lines disproportionately because of his fan base and highlight reel. Jones has the longest reach in all of MMA and throws some nasty Muay Thai strikes combined with some low level BJJ and good but not great wrestling.

Against Bader, Jones will not be able to throw him around like he has in the past against other opponents (Bader is a D-I Pac-10 wrestler). Although I think that Jones is the better fighter, I believe a huge offensive attribute that Jones often uses will be nullified.

Bader will not be able to get in on Jones because of the reach issue, so if Bader is to win, I believe it will be grinding out to a three-round non-title fight decision. Bader does have KO power and Jones' chin is untested so I would not limit the only outcome to Bader by decision (+420).

Here's a hedge scenario:

Bader on money line $100.

Jones inside of rounds $200.

Bader wins in any fashion, including decision: Net +79 per 300 26.3 percent ROI

Jones wins in any fashion except decision: +35 11.7 percent ROI

Only losing scenario is Jones by decision -300 -100 percent ROI

*I really like Bader on the money line if you're looking for a higher reward bet without hedge.


Now for the main event, Silva vs Belfort. 

Silva -259
Belfort +230
Silva inside round -130

Two amazing strikers that do not go to the distance, let alone in a five-round championship fight. Anderson has only gone the distance twice in last 16 fights. Belfort has ended four of his last five fights dating back to '06. I really can not fathom this fight lasting five rounds. That being said, I have used this history in my strategy to discover an advantage on the lines. 

Odds double in your favor by removing Silva by decision from the equation—almost even money at -130 compared to -260 for a Silva stoppage within five rounds.  If Belfort is going to win this fight, it will most likely be from his powerful striking. Vegas pays +315 for Belfort knocking out Silva, which is very possible, but not priced properly to disregard Belfort by sub or decision.

The bet:

Silva wins in any fashion except by decision:  $500
Belfort wins in any fashion including decision: $225

Silva wins inside rounds +$ 159 21.9 percent ROI
Belfort wins in any way  +$ 17.50 2.4 percent ROI
Silva wins by decision -$725 -100 percent ROI

Only possible losing scenario is if Silva wins by decision and I just can not see these two fighters going all the way in a five-round battle. They both hit way too hard and are way too good.

Sportbet.com is the only site I know that has the UFC prop bets up or even offers them for that matter. I would say pile on Bader straight up to win, and if he does...walk...if he doesnt, make the money back on the Silva hedge.

Remember, you can bet any amount (smaller or larger) as long as you keep the ratios the same across the bets. And as always, only bet what you can afford to lose.

Good luck.