SEC Power Rankings: Where Kentucky and All the Rest Stand
With Selection Sunday just a little over a month away, conference play has begun in earnest.
Major conference teams are looking to either improve their resume or seeding depending on how successful they were in the first couple months.
In the SEC, only a couple teams are virtual locks to make the tournament barring epic collapses.
The rest are vying for one of what looks to be a four- or five-bid conference, making it one of the most competitive conferences in the country.
Earlier in the year, I previewed the SEC and made predictions about how good each team would be (go here to see the article).
I've copied and pasted those predictions, which will be in italics, so we can look at how smart/dumb I was.
12. Auburn Tigers
1 of 12
Record: 8-13, 1-6 in the SEC
Winning 10 games would be a huge accomplishment for this team. (Coach Tony) Barbee and the Tigers will take their lumps this season, but should be better in a year or two. For now, this could be the worst big conference team in the country.
While the Tigers aren't the worst big conference team (that honor probably goes to DePaul or Wake Forest), they aren't far from it.
Their struggles are understandable, though, having lost the majority of their roster.
Auburn has shown flashes that they're not terrible, with wins over Florida State and recently on the road against South Carolina.
They do seem on track for 10 victories, though, and will be looking to play the role of spoiler for bubble teams the rest of the season.
11. LSU Tigers
2 of 12
Record: 10-11, 2-4 in the SEC
This will be another rough year for the Tigers. (Storm) Warren will be good, but there's no one else who's a scoring threat. Anything more than 10 wins would be a surprise.
Well, I was pretty off on these Tigers. They already have 10 wins and have a couple more winnable games the rest of the way.
Freshmen guards Ralston Turner and Andre Stringer have shouldered the scoring load, whereas Warren has been a disappointment due to injuries.
It wouldn't be out of the question to see them finish around .500, but they don't have the experience or firepower to make it to the NIT.
These games will be extremely valuable experience for the freshman backcourt, which will pay dividends in the future.
10. Ole Miss Runnin' Rebels
3 of 12
Record: 13-8, 1-5 in the SEC
Losing (Terrico) White will be bigger than people think, as finding another scorer will be their biggest issue. (Chris) Warren is great, but his supporting cast is not. While they should be over .500, it won't be by much.
A 12-3 non-conference start gave Rebel fans hope for another solid season, but that was quickly dispelled once conference play started.
Blowout home losses against Georgia and Tennessee have pretty much ruined any hope of an NCAA berth.
The NIT isn't looking good if Ole Miss doesn't grab a signature win, which is right now at home against Penn State.
Luckily for them, the only game they have left that one can pencil in as a loss is home against Kentucky. The rest of them are all winnable in the weaker West division.
With Chris Warren (18 points and four assists per game), they have a guy who can win a game by himself, which he may have to do if they want to impress the selection committee.
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9. Mississippi State Bulldogs
4 of 12
Record: 11-9, 3-3 in the SEC
If the Bulldogs are able to stay afloat for the first month of the season, they should be OK. (Renardo) Sidney's effectiveness will be the key to just how good this team will be. I wouldn't be shocked if they end up with a similar record this year and are again on the bubble come Selection Sunday.
These guys would have been lower, but a recent signature win against Florida bumps them up a notch.
Sidney's impact has been small, unless you want to count the fist-fight he got in with one of his teammates in the stands during an early tournament.
The surprise has actually been the guards Dee Bost and Ravern Johnson, who are combining to average 36 points per game.
Right now, their bubble chances are not good.
But with guard play and in the easier of the two divisions, there is a good chance they could make an appearance in the NIT.
8. Arkansas Razorbacks
5 of 12
Record: 14-6, 4-3 in the SEC
This team is a player or two away from being very, very good. (Marshawn) Powell and (Rotnei) Clarke are two solid players to build around, but they just don't have enough quality guys to enhance this team. Their record should improve regardless, but 20 wins seems high.
Well, their record will improve from last year, considering they've already matched their win total.
Powell has been disappointing, but Clarke recently scored 36 points in a huge road win against Vanderbilt.
The Razorbacks are currently in second in the West division and could get close to 20 wins should Clarke continue to play like he has lately.
The problem Arkansas could run into is with Clarke's monster performance.
Opponents will focus more on shutting him down, and I don't think their supporting cast is good enough to carry them for the majority of games.
7. South Carolina Gamecocks
6 of 12
Record: 12-7, 3-3 in the SEC
This is a rebuliding season for the Gamecocks, plain and simple. Don't be surprised to see the freshmen see more action than normal if their record starts going south. They'll be in the basement of the conference, and 15 wins would be an accomplishment for this team.
I was probably more wrong about South Carolina than I was about any team.
Rebuilding? More like contending.
Wins over Vanderbilt and on the road against Florida give the team two solid victories.
The problem? Their division is LOADED.
Carolina still has to play Vandy, Florida and Kentucky again and Tennessee twice. Those could be five losses right there.
Their recent loss at home to Auburn could kill squash their hopes for an NCAA berth.
I don't like their chances to make the tournament, but unlike the teams below them, at least South Carolina has a chance.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide
7 of 12
Record: 13-7, 5-1 in the SEC
This team can duplicate last season's record (17-15), but not much more. Twenty wins and an NIT berth would be a solid accomplishment.
The Tide should probably be lower, but leading the West division isn't something to dismiss.
They also have a big win over Kentucky and have beaten everyone they should have (only conference loss was to Arkansas on the road).
Bama still has to play Vandy, Florida and Tennessee, all of them on the road.
If they're able to win one of those and finish first in the West, they'll definitely be considered for an NCAA berth.
Granted, that's a pretty big if.
5. Georgia Bulldogs
8 of 12
Record: 14-6, 3-4 in the SEC
A lot of experts are picking this team to surprise and make a big leap. While I think they'll be much better than a 14-win club, I don't see the NCAAs being a guarantee like most. Twenty wins? Yeah, I'll buy that, but if they're not able to get quality wins against the best teams in this conference, the Bulldogs will be sweating like dogs come Selection Sunday.
Want the definition of a bubble team?
That would be the Bulldogs, who I accurately thought would be about this good. They have a quality win against Kentucky, but that's it.
Now, all of their losses in the conference have been by single digits—and against opponents ranked higher than them in this slideshow—so they don't have any bad losses.
Twenty wins may actually be necessary for them to feel good about themselves (meaning a 6-4 finish).
I see five games they should win with three that could go either way (home versus Vandy and Xavier and on the road against Alabama).
4. Vanderbilt Commodores
9 of 12
Record: 15-5, 3-3 in the SEC
(John) Jenkins and (Jermaine) Taylor will be a solid inside-out duo for a team that will start to do more running with the loss of Ogilvy. Don't be surprised if they have a similar season with an NCAA appearance followed by an early exit. Not bad for a team whose two best players are not seniors.
Currently ranked in the top 25, Vandy is a win or two away from being a lock in the NCAA tournament.
The recent loss at home to Arkansas really hurt them, but a couple good non-conference wins (St. Mary's and Marquette) and only one bad loss (already mentioned) puts them in good standing.
I think my prediction of an early exit is about right.
A few good tests are still upcoming as Vandy still has to play Kentucky and Florida twice.
Win two of those games and they may get a good enough seed to avoid another upset in the first round.
3. Tennessee Volunteers
10 of 12
Record: 14-7, 4-2 in the SEC
(Tobias) Harris is the team's most talented player and will be a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. If (Scotty) Hopson's able to increase his production and the guard play is shored up, this team could win the conference due to its depth. NCAAs aren't even a question, but making it past the Sweet 16 could be challenging.
Much like Vandy, though on a greater scale, Tennessee has a couple quality non-conference wins (Pitt and Villanova) that have put them solidly in the field of 68.
The Vols had that rough patch early in the season, but have rebounded and only have one bad conference loss (at Arkansas).
Coach Bruce Pearl will also be returning to the bench in a few games, the first of which will be on the road against Kentucky.
The Vols still need to go on the road to each of the other top four teams in the conference. A win against any of them would solidify their position in the tournament.
I don't see them winning the conference, but I still feel anything more than the Sweet Sixteen would be surprising.
2. Florida Gators
11 of 12
Record: 16-5, 5-2 in the SEC
Making it back to the NCAAs isn't a matter of if but how far they will go. A Sweet 16 appearance is as far as I'll go with this team, but I wouldn't be surprised if they go further. This is probably the best team in the SEC and easily the most experienced, which will really help them come conference play. I'd put their win total at around 25.
Leading the better division is pretty impressive, though expected, for this veteran ball club.
Beating both Tennessee and Georgia on the road along with a couple non-conference road victories make this team a lock in the NCAA field.
My prediction of 25 wins was too high (still have to play Vandy and Kentucky twice), but I could see the Sweet Sixteen as a more realistic finish than the Vols.
They'll probably finish with 22 wins in the regular season and a good showing the conference tournament could give the Gators a top four seed, putting them in good position to make the second week.
1. Kentucky Wildcats
12 of 12
Record: 16-4, 4-2 in the SEC
This team has about 25 wins and is susceptible to an early exit due to lack of frontcourt talent.
Should anyone be surprised?
The Wildcats have been the most consistent team in the conference outside of their road loss to Alabama.
They've yet to reach the meat of their conference sandwich which comes next week as they play Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt during the course of seven days.
Kentucky then finishes their regular season with a similar stretch (all three teams again, though in the course of nine days).
Going 4-2 in those six games is expected along with a long run in the conference tournament, which should give the Wildcats a top three or four seed.
Now, an early exit in the tournament is still a possibility, but now because of a lack of frontcourt talent (I did not see Terrence Jones being as good as he is).
Their lack of depth is staggering—only really playing six guys.
If Jones gets into foul trouble, they could lose in the first or second round without question.
However, if I had to bet my life on an SEC team to make it past the Sweet Sixteen, it would be the Wildcats.
Hopefully it doesn't come to that, though.
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