March Madness 2011: Why Ohio State, Duke, Texas and UConn Deserve No. 1 Seeds
It's never too early to look ahead to March.
The NCAA tourney is always a big deal—last year, during the first week alone, an estimated $1.8 billion was lost due to lost productivity, according to Yahoo! Finance.
When you start filling out your brackets a couple months from now, pay attention to these four teams: Ohio State, Duke, Connecticut and Texas. I believe these teams will end up as the four No. 1 seeds.
Why Duke Will Be the No. 1 Overall Seed
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Although Ohio State is the only remaining undefeated team left in the nation, Duke will be the No. 1 overall seed come March.
They have no remaining ranked opponents left on their schedule and the ACC (other than Duke, of course) is a very weak conference this year.
No team has as effective a one-two punch as Duke does with Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith, and they are clearly one of the better offensive teams in the country.
Duke also has played a tough non-conference schedule, with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State and Butler, which the selection committee takes note of when deciding tournament seeding.
Duke is clearly superior to the rest of the ACC and, unless they slip up on the road, I see them running the table and earning another No. 1 seed, which would be their 12th under coach Mike Krzyzewski.
The Case Against Duke
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However, I feel that Duke can't lose more than one game the rest of the season to be a viable No. 1 seed.
Although Duke challenged itself in its non-conference schedule, Michigan State, Kansas State and Butler have all underachieved this year and have not lived up to their preseason rankings.
Duke also has some defensive issues—the Plumlee brothers are both very athletic, but their inconsistent, sometimes unphysical play is an issue for the Blue Devils. They are a different team when the Plumlees don't play well.
Furthermore, their RPI will be lowered because they play in such a weak conference. The ACC is not as difficult top to bottom as the Big East or Big Ten.
Duke controls its destiny, but the Blue Devils can't afford to lose multiple games the rest of the season because they have no games left to impress the selection committee. They simply have to keep winning.
Why Ohio State Will Earn a No. 1 Seed
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As the last undefeated team left, Ohio State already has a leg up on the rest of the country when résumés are being compared.
Michigan State has not lived up to its preseason ranking, and the loss of Robbie Hummel (again) for Purdue has left Ohio State the class of the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes have great depth, are a tough, defensive-minded team and are great at shooting threes. Having POY candidate Jared Sullinger, one of the best big men in the country, doesn't hurt either.
I see Ohio State winning both the regular season Big Ten title and the Big Ten Tournament, which will be more than enough to earn the Buckeyes a No. 1 seed.
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The Case Against Ohio State
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Although undefeated so far, Ohio State has some tough games ahead.
The beginning of their conference schedule had them playing the bottom feeders of the Big Ten, and many feel the Buckeyes still have to prove themselves.
They still have road games at Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue, all ranked opponents.
Even their remaining home games will be difficult, as the Big Ten is one of the better conferences in the nation, with six teams ranked in the AP Top 25.
The Buckeyes' schedule is too tough for them to remain undefeated, and the team still needs to show how it will respond after a loss.
If the team falters down the stretch, it could open the door for another team to claim a No. 1 seed.
Why Connecticut Will Earn a No. 1 Seed
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This is purely speculation because the Big East is probably the toughest conference in the nation. But if UConn wins the Big East, as I predict it will, it will certainly be worthy of a No. 1 seed.
The Huskies already have three wins against Top 10 teams and key non-conference wins against Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas and Michigan State.
They also have Kemba Walker, the second-leading scorer in the nation.
Pittsburgh, Villanova and possibly even Syracuse and Notre Dame will all have a say in who wins the Big East, but winning the toughest conference in the nation, along with its key non-conference wins, will allow UConn to earn a No. 1 seed.
The Case Against Connecticut
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Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville (twice) and Notre Dame.
Those are the teams left on UConn's schedule that stand in the way of them and a Big East title.
It doesn't help either that UConn already lost to Pittsburgh, the leader in the Big East as of now, and will not get a chance to play them again this season to avenge that loss (unless it's in the Big East tourney).
The Huskies also rely very heavily on Walker, and if he has an off shooting night I'm not sure if his teammates will be able to pick up the slack.
Playing in the Big East, UConn has no easy games left on its schedule, and a loss (or losses) will open the door for Pitt or Villanova to win the conference—and steal away UConn's No. 1 seed.
Why Texas Will Earn a No. 1 Seed
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Ending a team's 69-game home winning streak certainly looks good on your résumé.
That's exactly what Texas did earlier this year as the first team to beat the Kansas Jayhawks at home since 2007.
I think this signifies a changing of the guard in the Big 12, and I think Texas will win the conference title. They have low-post scoring with Tristan Thompson, and Jordan Hamilton is quietly second in the Big 12 in scoring.
Texas has played a challenging non-conference schedule and is still undefeated in the Big 12, one of the better conferences in the nation.
I don't see any conference getting two No. 1 seeds, which leaves Texas as the fourth and final No. 1 seed.
The Case Against Texas
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Although they have played a tough non-conference schedule, it has yielded mixed results.
Wins over North Carolina, Illinois and Michigan State are helpful, but losses to Connecticut and Pittsburgh hurt.
Texas has to show it is capable of winning the close games, as the losses to UConn and Pitt were both one-possession defeats.
The PG position is also one of concern. Dogus Balbay is athletic but does not have a great shooting stroke and is awful at the free throw line (56.3 percent).
Again, questions arise as to whether Texas can win those close games in crunch time.
Kansas could still easily defeat the Longhorns in the Big 12 tourney and steal away their potential No. 1 seed as well.
The Biggest Challengers
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If any of these teams slips up, I see Pittsburgh and Kansas as the biggest threats to earn No. 1 seeds.
Pitt is actually leading the Big East standings as of now and might have the most depth of any team in the country. The Panthers are a tough, physical team but have no true No. 1 scoring threat.
As the Notre Dame game showed, a tough, defensive-minded team can give them problems, and it has to be a worry that Notre Dame, which was 0-3 in conference road games, came in and beat the No. 2 team in the nation in its house.
Kansas has been a great team and Final Four contender since Bill Self arrived, and this year is no different.
The Morris brothers have been very impressive, giving them low post threats after losing Cole Aldridge the year before. As well, Josh Selby is a talented young player who earlier this season hit a game-winning three against USC in his first game back from a suspension.
Either team is capable of earning a No. 1 seed.
Why Texas Will Win It All
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Just for fun, I predict Texas will be cutting down the nets in April.
I feel they have the most balanced lineup in the country, with Gary Johnson and Jordan Hamilton providing scoring, Tristan Thompson a physical presence in the low post and a three-guard rotation of J'Covan Brown, Jai Lucas and Dogus Balbay.
All three guards do different things well and present matchup problems for opposing coaches.
They have some great wins, but the most impressive thing about them has been their close losses. There's no shame in losing by two to Pitt and by one to UConn.
Come tournament time, I think Texas will find a way to win these close games and Rick Barnes will win his first NCAA Tournament title.
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