Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix: Josh Barnett the Early Favorite?

With the rules and format for the quickly approaching Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix now set and digested by most followers of the sport, the talk should now turn to predictions.

And what makes predictions actually worth the time it takes to think them over?

You guessed it. Betting way more money on them than you probably should—you'll also find this gets those close to you much more into MMA when normally they couldn't care less, unless of course it's your significant other.

Now, clearly one side of the bracket is much weaker than the other. I know, it doesn't make a lot of sense, but Strikeforce seems to like things that way so we might as well just accept it.

So, instead of pointing out the way tournaments have successfully been structured for decades, let's just look at how this realistically effects the results.

Some might assume the big three in Fedor Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, and Fabricio Werdum would be the favorites to win this whole thing, but these oddsmakers aren't as dumb as I assume they look.

Emelianenko and Overeem certainly are the logical picks, both landing around +180 to win the whole shebang, but Werdum is placed fifth in line at a whopping +1200.

How could the No. 1 contender who holds victories over Overeem and Emelianenko be considered that much of a dog?

Easy.

For one, he's on the murderer's row side of the bracket. Even if he gets past Overeem, Emelianenko is likely waiting right behind him.

Two, his win over Overeem was five years ago. That was a time when Overeem was an entirely different person, literally.

And while his recent upset of Emelianenko was by no means a fluke, it was over within a minute without much taking place besides the finishing submission. One would have to assume Emelianenko will not fall for the same trick twice.

Let's say Werdum does get past both of them. That is probably going to be one banged-up, worn-out Brazilian—unlike a potentially softer route on the other side of the tournament, reflected by Andrei Arlovski being favored over Werdum to win the final at +950.

Really, I don't mean to shortchange the other side of the bracket. I mean, one of them will be in the finals and anything can happen in one fight. This is MMA after all.

Let's not forget that Sergei Kharitonov owns a 2007 knockout of Overeem, and that Arlovski won a decision over Werdum in Werdum's UFC debut.

But the clear favorite on that side is Josh Barnett. At +350, I actually see this as being the smartest bet of the whole lot.

People have lost quite a bit of faith in Barnett over the last couple of years, but you have to remember that it wasn't due to anything that happened inside of the cage—or ring, as it were.

In the last 10 years, Barnett has lost to only two people: Mirko Cro Cop and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and even those losses come with some excuses.

The fact is, less than two years ago, Barnett was ranked the No. 2 heavyweight in the world, and he only lost that ranking due to inactivity.

Vitor Belfort hasn't fought in 16 months, and people consider him live against middleweight champion Anderson Silva less than two weeks from now.

If Barnett was live against Emelianenko 18 months ago when they were scheduled to fight, why is he not now?

But, that is all fan speculation. This article is about logical betting.

I don't think anyone is giving Brett Rogers a serious chance against Barnett in the quarterfinals, so chalk that up as a bye.

I really don't see Arlovski beating Kharitonov at this point in his career—another good opportunity to make money with Kharitonov at -115 against Arlovski—but neither of their games match up well with Barnett.

That side of the tournament really just looks like a way to get Barnett some exposure and momentum going into the finals.

So, basically you are getting +350 for Barnett to beat whoever makes it out of two incredibly tough matches on the opposite side.

Even without the wear-and-tear that the finalist might endure, Barnett's style matches up really well with any of them, especially Overeem and Werdum. Not to mention, this will be a Barnett that has stayed active throughout the year.

Then after he wins this historic eight-man battle, he can scare the hell out of America by explaining to Jim Rome that he will fight anyone, anywhere to the death.

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