Brady Hoke: Why He Will Succeed and Bring Michigan Football Back

Brady Hoke was hired on January 11th, 2011 to revive the once mighty football program of Michigan.  After observing Brady Hoke since the day he was hired, I can now make a prediction on how I think Hoke will do at UM.

My prediction: He will succeed.

I have written other articles predicting whether or not newly hired head coaches will succeed.  My argument is based on a business concept titled the Peter Principle (I will explain later) and the fact that new head coaching hires exhibit qualities early on that can be predictors of how successful they will be.

It was based on these principles that I predicted early in the summer that Rich Rodriguez would be fired this year, see paragraph 10: http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/2406 and why in the same article I predict that Turner Gill will do well at Kansas.

Some of my predictions will require time to see if I am right.  It is based on the Peter Principle that I predicted that Brian Kelly will not win a national championship at ND and believe that Urban Meyer or Skip Holtz will follow him http://bleacherreport.com/articles/545178-notre-dame-football-prediction-urban-meyer-or-skip-holtz-will-follow-kelly-at-n. 

I also predict based on these principles that Will Muschamp of Florida will be successful: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/561331-why-university-of-floridas-new-head-coach-will-muschamp-will-succeed.  It will take time to see if these predictions come true as Muschamp has not coached a game and Brian Kelly has just finished his first season, (he went 8-5 his first year, both his predecessors had better first years).

Now I will apply these principles to the hiring of Brady Hoke.  As I have written before in a 1969 book by L.J. Peter and Raymond Hull, the hypothesis is that people will be promoted until they reach a position that they are incompetent to complete.  If you are competent at one level, you will be promoted to a higher one and if one is competent there, another promotion occurs until one reaches a level of incompetence. 

One principle of competence is that at higher levels, one must have people who function at high levels.  Hence, successful college football programs will always have assistants that move on to either head coaching jobs or higher level assistant posts. 

When Rich Rodriguez was hired in 2007, I watched to see how he handled the hiring and how he would handle Ryan Mallet.  I felt that WVU to UM was not a lateral move and he would need to keep some continuity from the Carr staff while hiring prominent assistants to key coaching positions. 

Rodriguez initially fired the whole staff and later brought back Fred Jackson, which some argue, was because he was the coach recruiting current Ohio State quarterback, Terrelle Pryor.  Rodriguez brought largely coaches from his WVU staff and coaches who he knew, no one from top tier colleges or NFL assistants.

Also, Ryan Mallet was basically shown the door.  Rodriguez should have tried to convince Mallet that the system could be adapted to his skills much like the current staff has assured Denard Robinson that their offensive system will be adapted to his strengths.  But Mallet transferred as Rodriguez did not feel he could fit the system. 

Good coaches have a system, great coaches can adapt their system to the personnel they have. 

Hoke has shown that he understands this concept while Rodriguez clearly did not.

Hoke has brought much of his staff from SDSU, so one could argue that he is doing something similar to Rodriguez but his key coaching positions of offensive and defensive coordinator have  Al Borges and Greg Mattison filling them.  Both have had success at top tier programs and Mattison comes from the NFL having coached one of the top defenses this season.

They have assured and kept Denard Robinson and will adapt their offense to fit his skills.  From Hoke’s initial period on the job, he is demonstrating the characteristics that a successful head coach should exhibit. 

I predict that Brady Hoke will bring Michigan Football back much like Bo Pelini at Nebraska has done.  Bob Davie said Greg Mattison’s hiring was a “home run.”  The same should be said of Brady Hoke.

Will Hoke beat Ohio State and Michigan State consistently?  I am not sure, but he will definitely restore the glory and winning ways back to the Wolverines. 

You can take that to the bank.