LeBron James and The 50 Most Productive Players In The NBA
I've been trying to establish a type of objective rankings system. I've gone through several trial runs and have now gotten to the point where I think I can release the ultimate ranking of the 50 most productive players in the NBA.
My methodology will be explained in detail on the last slide as I've learned that big, long first slides bore people. Essentially what the numbers mean are the net of total of points the player contributes to his team, minus the points he is at least partly responsible for on defense. There is a slight adjustment for playing time, as part of production is actually playing.
Notice the use of the word "productive." I've carefully selected that word because that's what's measurable, what they actually produce on the court. The intangibles aren't measurable, so I'm not using words like "best" or "value."
There are also some stars, such as Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, who are aging and as a result their minutes are diminished. Because their minutes are diminished, their production is diminished. These rankings are done on a per game basis, not a per minute basis. Older players may be better than some of the players that are ahead of them but they are lower in the rankings because they have less playing time. I'm merely pointing this out at the beginning to avoid confusion.
50: Tyreke Evans
1 of 51
Offense: 24.2
Defense: -15.5
Time: .4
Total: 9.1
Evans is following up his Rookie of the Year campaign with a bit of a disappointing sophomore year. His numbers are down in points, assists and rebounds. His future is still bright, but he's going to need some help.
49: Jrue Holiday
2 of 51
Offense: 24.1
Defense: -14.5:
Time: -0.3
Total: 9.3
Holiday is leading the 76ers in assists and is second in scoring. After losing his starting job briefly last season he's vindicating his being reinstalled as the starting point guard. He's having career highs across the board and has also had a career game best 29 points in scoring this season.
48: Elton Brand
3 of 51
Offense 23.6
Defense: -13.9
Time: 0-.3
Total 9.3
The good news for Philly fans is that Brand is having a bounce back year. The bad news is, he's not very bouncy. While he's having his best season as a 76er, it's still not what they paid for.
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47: David Lee
4 of 51
Offense: 25.3
Defense: -15.9
Time: 0.1
Total 9.5
David Lee was replaced in New York and sent to Golden State. He was injured early in the season and has slowly been getting back to himself. There are two things that I really like about Lee. First, he's a worker. That means he'll get back eventually. Second, he is a rare find these days in a big man that can actually make free throws.
46: Joe Johnson
5 of 51
Offense: 25.4
Defense: -15.5
Time: 0.1
Total: 10.0
Is he worth a max contract? I suppose it's all a matter of opinion but my opinion is no. He is a solidly good player, but he's not a max contract player. I'm still bewildered by a team whose approach is that by holding steady while everyone who already is better is getting better, they are going to better their chances of getting better.
45: Nene Hilario
6 of 51
Offense: 24.6
Defense: -12.9
Time: -1.6
Total: 10.1
Nene is having one of his better years as a pro this season, averaging a career high in scoring. I suppose he's legally just "Nene" without the Hilario now, but no one seems to care. By the way, just in case you didn't know, "nene" is Portuguese for "baby," and until he had his name changed, that was a nickname, not a legal one. His original name was Maybner.
44: Andre Iguodala
7 of 51
Offense: 24.5
Defense: -14.6
Time: 0.5
Total: 10.4
Iggy hasn't been having a great season. He's down across the board, and that probably isn't helping his trade value very much. He's 15th in terms of points allowed per 36 minutes, though. His defense is holding steady even if his offensive numbers are down.
43: Danny Granger
8 of 51
Offense: 24.9
Defense: -24.9
Time: 0.4
Total: 10.4
The 2009 Most Improved Player and All-Star probably deserves more attention than he gets. There are two players in the NBA who have been averaging 25 points, five rebounds and two three-pointers per game since 2005. Only three players in the NBA have averaged more points and rebounds than Granger in the last three years—Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James. Only seven have scored more than him. On a different team, he would probably get more notoriety.
42. Luis Scola
9 of 51
Offense: 25.5
Defense: -14.1
Time: -1.0
Total: 10.4
Luis Scola is either underrated or overrated, I haven't figured out which. Sometimes he looks great and sometimes, not so much. I can tell you this much about the guy, he seems to be milking everything he can out of his ability. He plays within himself, but to the extent of himself. I like his effort.
41: Andre Miller
10 of 51
Offense: 24.4
Defense: -12.7
Time: -1.1
Total: 10.6
Andre Miller has long been under appreciated for what he brings to a team. He's very solid all the way around. I can't help but wonder what might have been if Cleveland had held on to him. A team with Miller, Boozer and James might have been able to go all the way.
40: Al Jefferson
11 of 51
Offense: 25.2
Defense: -14.3
Time: -0.2
Total: 10.7
Al Jefferson is admirably filling the shoes of Carlos Boozer in Utah. Together with frontcourt mate Paul Millsap, the duo are combining for a total of 33.7 points and 16.5 rebounds. The pair is a among the league's best and should be able to challenge the Lakers frontcourt if the teams meet in the playoffs.
39: Paul Millsap
12 of 51
Offense: 25.6
Defense: -14.2
Time: -0.6
Total: 10.8
Paul Millsap is admirably filling the shoes of Carlos Boozer in Utah. Together with frontcourt mate, Al Jefferson, the duo are combining for a total of 33.7 points and 16.5 rebounds. The pair is a among the league's best and should be able to challenge the Lakers frontcourt if the teams meet in the playoffs. Having a déjà vu moment?
38: John Wall
13 of 51
Offense: 26.5
Defense: -15.9
Minutes: 0.3
Total: 10.9
Wall is showing a ton of potential and has already played some pretty fantastic games, including already securing a triple double. On the other hand his turnovers are very high, and his defense needs a lot of improvement. He's going to be climbing these charts in the near future, but for right now he's still a rookie playing a position that requires experience.
37: Stephen Curry
14 of 51
Offense: 26.5
Defense: -14.0
Time: -1.1
Total: 11.4
Steph Curry is shockingly on the trading block. I'm not sure what the Warriors think they're going to get for him that is an upgrade. For a player of that quality, and making first-year contract money, it's hard to see how much they can improve on what they already have. In all likelihood he should be at least one of the top 20 players in the league in a couple of seasons.
36: Kevin Garnett
15 of 51
Offense: 25.1
Defense: -11.9
Time: -1.5
Total 11.7
If you look up the word "resurgent" in the dictionary, you'll see a picture of it lovingly staring starry-eyed into a picture of KG. He's hardly, "The Kid" anymore—he's more like the "Old Man." But this year, he's playing like a kid. Fortunately for the Celtics, he was back for the game against the Magic. While he's received little mention in the MVP conversation, I think he deserves some thought. Or else maybe they should bring back the Comeback Player of the Year Award just for KG.
35: Manu Ginobili
16 of 51
Offense: 25.7
Defense: -12.5
Time: -1.4
Total 11.7
Manu Ginobili has been getting some MVP hype this season and deservedly so. He doesn't produce massive offensive numbers. He's not going to go off and rip 50 on you on any given night, but he's going to give you respectable offensive production within the rhythm of the offense. He's going to play shut down defense. He's worth at least one highlight play on each end of the ball every night. He's just plain outstanding on both ends of the ball, on a consistent basis. He's a far bigger reason for the Spurs having the best NBA record than some might realize.
34: Andrew Bogut
17 of 51
Offense: 25.0
Defense: -13.2
Time: -0.1
Total: 11.8
Among all the players in the top 100, Andrew Bogut gives up the fewest points per 36 minutes defensively. It's a perfect example of "reputation" not meeting reality in the sense that reputation hasn't caught up to reality yet.
33: Chris Bosh
18 of 51
Offense: 25.8
Defense: -13.7
Minutes: -0.2
Total: 12.1
When will he be able to start providing for his family again? The world wants, nay demands, to know. Or not. Bosh has taken a back seat to whomever is driving LeBron or Wade, but as a result he's down statistically, and that's why he's further down here than you might expect.
32: David West
19 of 51
Offense: 25.9
Defense: -13.6
Minutes: -0.3
Total: 12.0
David West should change his name to "nobody." The reason is that whenever people talk about Chris Paul and the Hornets, they have to say that "Chris Paul has nobody to pass to." Since West is the recipient of a good number of those passes, and a consistent converter of them into points, he must be the "nobody" they are referring to. Did you know he's second all-time in franchise history in both rebounds and points?
31: Tim Duncan
20 of 51
Offense:25.9
Defense: -13.6
Minutes: -0.3
Total: 12.0
Keep in mind that these are just rankings from this year, they aren't career rankings. Tim Duncan is one of two players in the top 10 who was not top 10 in offense, but is top 10 on defense. He's second in defense (and first, Brandon Bass, is more there because of less minutes than excellence). He's still a force on the Spurs, even if the offense is going through Park and Ginobili now. Duncan is in the conversation with only Kobe and Shaq for greatest player playing today.
30: Eric Gordon
21 of 51
Offense: 27.8
Defense: -16.3
Time: 0.7
Total: 12.1
Eric Gordon is flying a bit under the radar. He's rapidly becoming one of the better guards in the NBA, though his star quality seems to be lagging a bit. Offensively he's producing at the fifth best rate of any shooting guard, and he's defensively competent.
Has anyone noticed that the Clippers have started winning? They're on their way to being an improved team. They won't make the playoffs this year, but they have a collection of young talent that must have Clips fans being optimistic for the first time since...ever? It wouldn't hurt if they were able to obtain a new owner though.
29: Josh Smith
22 of 51
Offense: 26.2
Defense: -13.4
Time: -0.4
Total: 12.4
No "Josh"ing. He's just very good all the way around. I think he would be better as a small forward, particularly if he could develop his outside shot. He's quick enough to play there, and his ball handling is outstanding. For now, though, he's holding his own as a power forward.
28: Paul Pierce
23 of 51
Offense: 26.4
Defense: -13.6
Minutes: -0.3
Total: 12.5
When Paul Pierce recently passed the 20,000 mark in scoring, he more or less stamped his ticket into the Hall of Fame. It also marked the first time in the history of the game where four players who have passed that barrier have played together at the same time. The Lakers quartet of Karl Malone, Gary Payton, Kobe and Shaq included four players that either had, or would go on to score that many.
27: Rudy Gay
24 of 51
Offense: 26.4
Defense: -16.2
Minutes: -0.3
Total: 12.5
Rudy Gay's $80 million contract raised some eyebrows. There's a lot of young talent around him in Memphis and they've been playing better lately. Memphis fans were promised a playoff appearance this year, and it's still possible they could achieve it if they can catch Portland and keep the Clippers at bay.
26: Lamar Odom
25 of 51
Offense: 27.1
Defense: -13.6
Time:-0.7
Total: 12.8
What I truly appreciate about Odom is that he could have had a more starring role with a lot of teams. He has All-Star talent, but he's put a lot of it on the backburner for the sake of winning championships. He's one of the more underrated players in the NBA today. His placement here vindicates that.
25: LaMarcus Aldridge
26 of 51
Offense: 28.5
Defense: -16.4
Time: 0.9
Total: 13.0
Here's one where you can more or less just throw the stats out of the window. Forget about where he is placed here or what you think of it. He's the MVP of the Trail Blazers right now; zero questions asked. He is the most stable, consistent player they have and his valuable simply cannot be measured by stats.
24: Tony Parker
27 of 51
Offense: 28.1
Defense: -13.5
Time: -1.0
Total: 13.6
I think for whatever reason, when the whole "rings" discussion comes up, people forget that Parker has three and a Finals MVP to boot.
I think that people leave him out of the discussion for best point guard because he's not the best fantasy point guard. He's the perfect point man for the Spurs, serving as an amazing compliment to Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan. He's also one of the best, and most consistent defensive point guards in the NBA.
23: Joakim Noah
28 of 51
Offense: 28.0
Defense: -14.4
Time: 0.3
Total: 13.8
Noah's value to the Bulls is hard to measure. His ability to defend the paint is only surpassed by Howard and Bogut. He's among the best on help defense among the big men too. His scrappy play on the offensive side gets him a lot of put backs. The Bulls fastbreak has taken an enormous hit without him as few big men can run the floor as well as he does, and Kurt Thomas simply can't match Noah's speed. Noah was emerging as an All-Star before he went down with injury. Once he and Boozer are playing together and playing healthy in the lane, it will be quite a pairing.
22: Carmelo Anthony
29 of 51
Offense: 28.8
Defense: 14.5
Time: -0.4
Total: 13.9
In all the excitement of where and whether Anthony is going, one thing that gets lost is whether he's actually worth it. I'm not arguing that Anthony is not a good player—he is—but is he elite enough to bring anyone a championship?
In his seven years in Denver, the team has made it out of the first round only once. His career averages of 24 points and six rebounds have only been achieved by 11 other players in NBA history, though. Whether he is an elite player will be determined by what he does wherever he goes.
21: Raymond Felton
30 of 51
Offense: 29.7
Defense: -16.5
Time: 0.9
Total: 14.1
Amar'e Stoudemire gets all the credit for turning things around in New York, but I think you can make the argument that Felton deserves just as much credit, if not even more. That's not because he's better than Stoudemire; he's not. It's because the difference between he and former PG Chris Duhon is so much bigger than the difference between Stoudemire and former forward/center David Lee. Felton deserves a spot in the All-Star game, and I hope he gets it.
20: Carlos Boozer
31 of 51
Offense: 28.4
Defense: -12.2
Time: -1.3
Total: 14.9
If you want to know how much a defensive guru Tom Thibodeau is, look no further than Carlos Boozer, and I'm not kidding. Yes there was the much hullabalooed frenzy about the end of game benching, but over the course of the season, Carlos Boozer has played excellent defense. Either that or there's been a massive coincidence of players having off nights when they play the Bulls. Boozer's 98 DRtg is second best among all power forwards, and his .81 points per minute against is second lowest among power forwards.
He's always been one of the better rebounders and low post scorers in the league. Now that he's becoming, at least statistically speaking, an elite defensive player, there's a lot to be said for Carlos Boozer. While some may point to the system and say that it's more Thibs than Boozer, the same can be said of any defense or offense for that matter. This is very much a measure of how players are doing in the systems they are in. We can only conjecture, but not measure how players would perform in different systems.
19: Al Horford
32 of 51
Offense: 29.3
Defense: -13.4
Time: -0.5
Total: 15.4
Horford is probably better than a lot of people realize. His points per play against of .78 is even better than Dwight Howard's. It kind of showed up yesterday in the annihilation at the hands of the Hornets. Hopefully for the Hawks he won't miss many more games. They can't do without him for long.
18: Monta Ellis
33 of 51
Offense: 31.6
Defense: -17.6
Time: 1.6
Value: 15.6
Ellis is a great offensive producer, there's no question about that. However he's also turnover prone, misses a lot of shots and, most importantly, is horrid defensively. Of all the players in the top 100, Ellis gives up the most points defensively. Those things drop him. Ellis has the ability to improve defensively, but he hasn't had the coaching to do it, or shown the desire to do it.
17: Zach Randolph
34 of 51
Offense: 30.4
Defense: -14.9
Time: 0.2
Total: 15.7
Z-Bo is a beast. He's one of the strongest players in the league. If I were to ask you to name the 20/10 players in the league, how many would accurately mention Randolph as one of them? Or for that matter, how many know that he's third behind only Howard and Love in rebounding in the NBA? Add to that he's a solid defensive player, and the initial shock at seeing him as a top 20 player might go away.
16: Dirk Nowitzki
35 of 51
Offense: 30.4
Defense: -14.9
Time: 0.2
Total: 15.7
I have to admit, I have a man-crush on Dirk's shot. Not Dirk himself so much, just his shot. It has to be one of the most beautiful things in the history of basketball. It's technically perfect. Is it any wonder his true shooting percentage is a ridiculous 57 percent? And while his defense isn't ready to frighten anyone, he's elevated it to average. I think what the floundering Mavs did while he was out is an indication of his value to the team.
15: Kobe Bryant
36 of 51
Offense: 30.5
Defense: -13.7
Time: -0.9
Total: 15.9
His production is down a bit but that's partly a factor of his minutes being down a bit. No matter how you look at the numbers, they don't tell you everything with Kobe. His value is beyond his production. The miles are catching up to him, though, and it will be interesting to see how many years he has left. Will he catch Jordan in terms of total points scored? It's certainly possible.
14: Kevin Durant
37 of 51
Offense: 31.4
Defense: -16.5
Time: 1.1
Total: 16.0
Unquestionably the league's leading scorer is one of the top offensive talents. However, his production on the other end of the court leaves something to be desired. The Thunder could be a future dynasty, but only if they improve on defense. Among the top 50 players, only Ellis took a bigger defensive penalty. If Durant elevates that part of his game to the level of his offense, they will follow.
13: Blake Griffin
38 of 51
Offense: 33.1
Defense: -15.7
Time: 0.5
Total: 17.9
Blake Griffin isn't just a great dunker, he's rapidly becoming a great basketball player. He's improving at a rate that is just hard to fathom. His monthly splits have gone up across the board in rebounds, points and assists every month this season. I think it's safe to say at this point that he is the most dominant rookie since Tim Duncan. He's third in the NBA already in total stats. He and Dwight Howard are the only two players in the NBA averaging over 22 points and 12 rebounds. Imagine how good this guy is going to be when he turns 22!
12: Pau Gasol
39 of 51
Offense: 32.8
Defense: -15.3
Time: 0.5
Total: 18.0
Pau, Pau, Pau-erful....uh. OK. I'll stop.
His scoring, rebounding and shot blocking are all either excellent to way above average. Of the top half of all starting power forwards in terms of total production, he has the fewest negative plays on the offensive end. I believe that when he's healthy, he is the perfect complement to Kobe Bryant. There's a reason that as soon as they got Pau the Lakers started going to the NBA Finals every year. They make for arguably the best tandem in the NBA.
11: Rajon Rondo
40 of 51
Offense: 32.3
Defense: -14.9
Time: .5
Total: 18.0
Rajon Rondo is driving a Porsche. Whether Paul or Williams or Rose could drive this car as well as Rondo does, or if he would be getting the same results playing for the Hornets, are matters of sheer speculation.
What we do know is that Rondo and the Celtics are a perfect match. They fit each other so well, both offensively and defensively. All their positions are pure, meaning they have a pure center in Shaquille O'Neal, a pure power forward in Kevin Garnett, a pure small forward in Paul Pierce and a pure shooting guard in Ray Allen.
They might not be at the peak of their games, but the fact is that they are still incredibly capable players that you can't double team, because double teaming means leaving someone open. Is it any wonder that the Celtics are far and away the best shooting team in the league with a field goal percentage of .503?
The best possible point guard for this type of team is a guy with great court vision and an eagerness to distribute. Rondo fits the bill, and that's why he's serving up an NBA best 14 dishes per game.
Defensively, it is also true. The team has the best second best DRtg in the NBA, which allows Rondo to come out and challenge opponents at the perimeter. Trusting the help defense behind him, which also yields the third-lowest field goal percentage, he's been able to snatch a second best 2.4 steals per game.
The Celtics are an amazing high end car. Not everyone is cut to drive one. Rondo is driving this one as well as it can be driven.
10: Steve Nash
41 of 51
Offense: 33.9
Defense: -14.3
Time: -1.1
Total: 18.5
The two-time MVP is still running an offense effectively, in spite of the down tick in the talent level around him, particularly in the middle and the fact that he's only playing 32 minutes a game. I also appreciate that he's voiced his desire to stay with the team and help to mentor some of the younger talent. Nash seems to me to be a genuinely good guy, and that's the type of player you want sticking around. For an old man, he's still balling mighty fine too.
9: Dwight Howard
42 of 51
Offense: 32.5
Defense: -14.0
Time: 1.0
Total: 18.5
He's probably the player that most deserves to be in the MVP discussion that isn't. In my opinion, right now it's a four horse race between Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Howard. He's not only the best defensive player in the NBA, he's also the key to the entire offense. If he's not a threat to score in the paint, it doesn't matter how good those three-point shooters around the perimeter are. If Howard went down, the Magic would to.
8: Deron Williams
43 of 51
Offense: 34.1
Defense: -16.2
Time: 0.7
Total: 18.5
Deron Williams and Chris Paul will be forever linked together, as they were taken back to back in the draft, and are frequently regarded as the top two best pure point guards in the NBA today who are also scoring threats.
They also both play top notch defense.
This year may be the year that Williams has eclipsed Paul, though, in the "conventional wisdom" area of who is the best point guard. The way he's been able to bring in Al Jefferson without a skip has impressed me. D-Will is certainly in the conversation of not only the top five point guards, but top five in the MVP rankings.
7: Amar'e Stoudemire
44 of 51
Offense: 34.1
Defense: -15.9
Time: 0.4
Total: 18.6
Amar'e has really brought some excitement to the Big Apple. There hasn't been this much excitement about the Knicks in some time, although that excitement has been dampened a bit lately. The fact is that you have to play defense to win consistently in the NBA, and the Knicks have some issues defensively.
That is true with STAT as well. He is an amazing offensive talent, and as athletic as any big man in the league. Blocked shots are nice, but there's more to defense to blocking shots. Amar'e needs to work on those things and improve his rebounding if the Knicks are going to go to the next level. The good news is he has the tools to do it.
6: Dwyane Wade
45 of 51
Offense: 33.0
Defense: -14.3
Time: 0.2
Total: 18.9
Before they got hit by the injury bug, the Heat were really getting it together. The more they play together, the better they are going to get. In Dwyane Wade and LeBron James there's a real chance that they could present the greatest tandem, not just in the NBA right now, but in the entire history of the game. They are second and sixth in the history of the game in Player Efficiency Rating.
Wade and James are both efficient scorers and among the best defenders at their position in the game today. Kobe fans may hate me for this, but right now D-Wade is the best two guard in the game, and there's really not much of an argument. Kobe has the greater history right now, but Wade is also the better player right now.
5: Kevin Love
46 of 51
Offense: 35.0
Defense: -15.7
Time: 0.3
Total: 19.6
Can I get a little Love love? His 15.7 rebounds are worth a lot. They come, though, on a team which misses more shots than any other in the NBA and also on one whose opponents miss the most of any team in the NBA. That's a lot of rebound opportunities.
The counter argument to that is that Kevin Love also has a high rebounding percentage. But then, no one else on his team does. So it begs the question, is he getting all those rebounds because he's a great rebounder or is he getting them because there are a lot of missed shots and no other great rebounders? Or is it a combination of the two?
It all comes down to a lot of questions that just get more and more complicated the deeper you get. The bottom line is that it's just too hard to do. It's possible that you could take Kevin Love, swap him out with Amar'e Stoudemire, and make both players worse while making both their stats better.
In the end, all you can do is measure how players are doing in the system they are in, and at least in terms of rebounding, Kevin Love is making the most of his situation.
4: Russell Westbrook
47 of 51
Offense: 34.9
Defense: -15.3
Time: 0.0
Total: 19.7
I doubt I'll be the first, but let me add my name to a growing list of people who believe that Westbrook has surpassed Durant as the MVP of the Thunder. That's not a knock on the "Durantula." It's a compliment to Westbrook. His movement with the ball is surpassed only by Derrick Rose. I just have to believe that if the Durant/Westbrook duo stay together, they'll bring home the hardware eventually. They are still so young and there is so much room for improvement.
3: Chris Paul
48 of 51
Offense: 34.8
Defense: -13.9
Time: -0.2
Total: 20.8
How good would CP3 be if he hadn't had that injury last year? He still seems to be a bit shy of where he was before he went down, though he's getting back to full speed.
I think Paul suffers from a common disease to hit small market teams known as "Teammate Deficit Disorder." Outside of West, he has little help.
Rumors are that he might get dealt to anyone and everyone and then some. If he had another great player to play with, the future would be much brighter for the young superstar. It will be interesting to see how his future pans out.
2: Derrick Rose
49 of 51
Offense: 35.0
Defense: -14.6
Time: 0.7
Total: 21.0
One thing that people are noticing on the way to his MVP caliber season is that it's not just his offense that's improved. People have been aware that he's leading all point guards in scoring, that he's the first point guard in a decade to average 24 points and eight assists, and that he's figuring out how to get the foul line of late.
But it's starting to generate attention how much his defense has improved. In fact right now, in terms of isolation defense, defending against the ball handler on the pick and roll, and in defending the spot up jumper, he gives up the fewest points per play of any guard in the NBA. In fact, he's the hardest guard in the NBA to score on period. When you add that to the type of offensive ability he's already showing, the MVP seems more and more realistic.
1: LeBron James
50 of 51
Offense: 37.3
Defense: -14.5
Time: 0.7
Total: 23.5
Was there really any doubt who would be at the top of this list? While there are many who will contend that any future rings won't count because he signed with Miami, I say that's pure sophistry. There's no difference between going somewhere and having someone come to you, no matter how you try and parse it. If he wins three or four rings, he'll go down as the greatest small forward ever. If he wins five or more, he could go down as the greatest NBA player ever.
Methodology
51 of 51
Rather than post a convoluted formula that only I understand I'll just post my reasoning. The general logic was to assign values based on points contributed to.
Points were assigned as a point for every point, easy enough.
Possessions are on average worth 1.05 real points so all possession changing stats like steals, blocks, rebounds, and turnovers were attributed 1.05 points, either added or subtracted.
Assists One half of all field goals are off of assisted shots. Therefore I gave the value of an assist as having increased the chance of the field goals as one half, or (.5.*.5*.2) or 1.5 total points.
Unassisted Field Goals: Normally players who create their own shots are not credited with that ability in objective rankings. However there is that value that players like Kobe, Westbrook, Williams and Rose bring to the table. This ability breaks down defenses, forces double teams and has an effect on the game beyond the shot itself. Therefore I credited an unassisted field goal with half the credit of an assist. In essence they are getting half credit for assisting themselves.
Missed Field Goals and Free Throws In both field goals and field goals I made the break even point the league average of 45.6 and 76.1 percent. Above average shooting is rewarded, below average shooting is penalized. Adjustments for three point shooting are inherent, and therefore not needed.
While I recognize that some will argue that the field goal attempt itself should be counted, it is the inevitable and forced conclusion because of the shot clock and therefore not considered. Consider this argument. A player, theoretically could simply dribble to the expiration of the shot clock, and therefore never attempt a field goal, and never be charged a turnover. Or else he could shoot, and even at five percent shooting could have a better impact on his team over 100 possessions than if he just never shot. Therefore only missed attempts are scored.
Defense: Using www.mysynergysports.com and basketball-reference.com I determined the points per play (PPP) of each player and the defensive rating. Then weighting the PPP twice as much I determined what a team of players of comparable ability would allow in a full 96 possession game (theaverage pace of an NBA game). Then based on one fifth of that and accounting for minutes played, I determined an estimate of how many points the player was accountable for. This score was subtracted from the score using the methods above.
Time: PER has the thought that all playing time should be evened out. This logic assumes that the exact same amount of energy is expended in every minute of every game played. It also diminishes the actual value of the minutes themselves. I mean actually playing and being on the court, is in and of itself a value. Using 36 minutes as an evening point I added or subtracted one point for every three minutes played. This had a marginal effect (less than five percent) on scoring, but somewhat moderates the difference in energy level of players that play significantly more minutes game after game, and also credits them for the actual minutes played.
If you have any questions or comments about the scoring, please either leave a comment or send me a message. I will add that as I neared completion it occurred to me that things like steals, defensive rebound and blocks should have been factored into the defensive score, rather than the offensive score, but at that point it didn't seem worth going back and changing it since it didn't actually effect the final scores, only the allocation of them.
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