UFC 126: Real Early Odds and Predictions for Silva vs. Belfort Card
The biggest and most anticipated card of the year is less than three weeks away and features the most dominant champion in the UFC and the hottest prospects in the sport.
The stacked card hosts a main event matching up Anderson "The Spider" Silva and Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort, which promises to provide explosive entertainment. Silva was two minutes away from being dethroned in his last fight against Chael Sonnen, while Belfort is coming off a string of impressive knockout wins.
Former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin will be taking on former UFC light-heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin in a fight for the fans.
Jon Jones, the hottest prospect in the sport, will be putting his hype to the test against undefeated Ryan Bader who is 5-0 in the UFC and is coming off an impressive win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
It is the most stacked card of the year and one of the hardest to predict. Hopefully my breakdown of each fight helps you decide on who will come out on top.
Mike Pierce vs. Kenny Robertson
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Mike Pierce is 3-1 in the UFC and 13-3 overall. His only defeat in the UFC was against the second best welterweight in the world, Jon Fitch. He holds wins over Brock Larson, Julio Paulino and Amilcar Alves.
The wrestler from Portland State University will be taking on UFC newcomer Kenny Robertson, who holds a 10-0 record in MMA and has seven submission and two knockout victories to his credit.
This fight will hit the mat and it will be determined from there who wins this fight. Pierce is a wrestler and has big power. He came close to finishing Fitch in the third round of their fight so he has the ability late in fights to still hurt his opponents.
Robertson will be looking for the submission throughout this fight and it will be a hard fight to score.
It's a question of what do you like more? Top control and wrestling or submission attempts? Pierce will have to enforce ground and pound if he takes it there to show the judges he is the one doing damage. If he decides to play it safe, he may see himself on the wrong side of a close decision.
I'm predicting a close fight, but wrestlers usually always get the edge in those situations.
Prediction: Mike Pierce by unanimous decision.
Kyle Kingsbury vs. Ricardo Romero
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In this light-heavyweight bout, former Ultimate Fighter contestant Kyle Kingsbury will be taking on Ring of Combat veteran Ricardo Romero.
Kingsbury is 9-2 in MMA and 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Jared Hamman and Razak Al-Hassan. Romero is 11-1 in MMA and 1-0 in the UFC and holds a submission win over Seth Petruzeli from UFC 116.
Kingsbury's most recent fight was against Jared Hamman at Ultimate Fight Night 22. He was awarded the "Fight of the Night" bonus.
I don't predict another "Fight of the Night" bonus, but it will be an interesting fight to see if Romero can take it to the mat where his submission offense will be important. He also holds a submission victory over James McSweeney.
Romero has only gone the distance once, but I think this one will. Kingsbury should be able to defend the submissions for the majority of the fight, but he will spend more time on defense than on offense.
Prediction: Ricardo Romero by unanimous decision.
Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Demetrious Johnson
3 of 11Odds: Norifumi Yamamoto -165, Demetrious Johnson +135
A lot of people are excited for this fight, and they should be. Many were waiting for the WEC to sign Yamamoto to their roster, but since going 1-2 in his last three fights it hasn't been as important.
Him signing with the UFC rejuvenates the excitement and anticipation people have had about him for years. He holds a record of 18-3 with 13 knockouts. He also holds a record for one of the fastest knockouts in the history of MMA; four seconds.
Demetrious Johnson has a record of 8-1 and went 2-1 in the WEC. He holds wins over Nick Pace and Damacio Page.
Yamamoto's experience in big shows shouldn't make him nervous going into this bout, and he is probably excited to show why fans around the world have been talking about him for a while.
Johnson will be looking to put a halt to the hype behind Yamamoto, and he has a big opportunity to do so in this fight. He will have to reach deep if he wants to win this fight.
I'm looking to see Yamamoto make a statement in this fight, and he is capable of pulling off a knockout early in the fight. If Page can defend the early attack, he will have better opportunities to win the fight in the second and third rounds.
Prediction: Norifumi Yamamoto by technical knockout in the first round.
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Paul Taylor vs. Gabe Ruediger
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Paul Taylor's record can make you second guess his chances in this fight, but don't be too fooled. He holds a professional record of 11-6 and is one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC.
During his run in the welterweight division, Taylor had won three "Fight of the Night" bonuses but lost each of those fights. He lost his lightweight debut by split decision to Sam Stout at UFC 121, but it was a close fight that could have gone either way that a lot of people thought he had won.
His opponent, Gabe Ruediger, is 0-2 in the UFC and was embarrassed in his last fight against Joe Lauzon. He was overwhelmed by the pressure Lauzon brought early and never really got into the fight. He will have to start faster in this fight if he wants to have any success.
Unless Ruediger comes into this fight and puts on the fight of his life, he will probably fall short of victory against the relentless Taylor. His striking isn't as crisp as Taylor's and his wrestling isn't strong enough to put Taylor where he is most uncomfortable.
I see Taylor using his striking to keep Ruediger at a distance for the entire fight. If Ruediger decides to go for broke, it will only make his chances of winning more slim.
Prediction: Paul Taylor by unanimous decision.
Chad Mendes vs. Michihiro Omigawa
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Michihiro Omigawa will be making his return to the UFC after a three year absence from the organization. Since going 0-2 in the UFC in 2008, he has compiled a record of 8-2-1 including victories over Nam Phan and Hiroyuki Takaya.
He will be facing off against undefeated Chad Mendes. Mendes went 4-0 in 2010 and has victories over Javier Vazquez, Cub Swanson and Eric Koch.
This will be a tough fight to call. Both fighters are on win streaks, and they are both very good at what they are known for. Omigawa's judo is some of the very best in MMA. He also has very good boxing offense and defense, which could play a key part in this fight if it stays on the feet.
Mendes is the opposite of Omigawa and uses his wrestling and control to grind out decision wins. Depending on where Mendes chooses to take the fight, he may have to make some gameplan changes if things aren't going his way.
I see this fight taking place everywhere. I see Omigawa getting the better of the stand up, but Mendes should be able to get Omigawa down enough times to eek out a close decision.
Prediction: Chad Mendes by split decision.
Donald Cerrone vs. Paul Kelly
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Donald Cerrone will be making his Octagon debut against the tough fighter from Liverpool, England, Paul Kelly.
Cerrone holds a record 13-3 including a quality run in the WEC where he managed to gain three unsuccessful title shots, five "Fight of the Night" bonuses and two candidates for "Fight of the Year." He did all of that in the course of three years
Paul Kelly is 11-3 in MMA and has a record of 5-3 in the UFC. Since making his UFC debut at the age of 23 back in 2008, Kelly has had an up and down career. He holds wins over Paul Taylor, Matt Veach and T.J. O'Brien, but has lost to credible opponents in Marcus Davis, Dennis Siver and Jacob Volkmann.
Cerrone is replacing an injured Sam Stout in this fight so it will be interesting to see what kind of shape he comes in. He just fought last month so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Cerrone is pumped to make his debut in the UFC and leave with a victory, but it might be a struggle to make it look impressive.
Kelly dropped to 155 after his fight with Davis hoping to have a considerable size advantage over most of his opponents. Cerrone will hold a three inch height advantage and a two inch reach advantage for this fight.
Look for Kelly to keep the fight on the feet where he has the best chance of winning. Cerrone has been using takedowns more often recently in his fights. His only stoppage wins have come by submission so it's easy to see why. His success to finishing this fight is by submission, and I see him pulling one off sometime in this fight.
Predictions: Donald Cerrone by second round triangle choke.
Miguel Torres vs. Antonio Banuelos
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Odds: Miguel Torres -525, Antonio Banuelos +325
Miguel Torres will be making his anticipated UFC debut against the rough and tough Antonio Banuelos in a bantamweight fight that is sure to produce excitement.
This is one of the candidates for "Fight of the Night."
Torres recently rebounded from back-to-back losses with a win over Charlie Valencia at WEC 51. With that win, his record improved to 38-3. Banuelos had some momentum before losing a unanimous decision against Scott Jorgensen at WEC 48. He has recently come back to beat Chad George at WEC 51 and improve his record to 18-6.
Look for Banuelos to come out strong and throwing bombs. One of them will likely connect on Torres' chin early, but he should be able to keep his composure while Banuelos swings wild and misses. Banuelos has a reputation to go head-hunting, and I see him doing that in this fight.
Torres has the height and reach to keep Banuelos on the end of the jab for the majority of the fight and secure a clear decision in the judges eyes.
If this fight hits the ground, Torres holds a big advantage there and may be able to get a submission. I see Torres countering Banuelos' bombs early and sending him to the mat and closing the show with strikes.
Prediction: Miguel Torres by second round submission.
Jon Jones vs. Ryan Bader
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Odds: Jon Jones -325, Ryan Bader +250
In what should be the first real test of his career, ultra popular prospect Jon Jones will be taking on undefeated Ryan Bader. Jones enters this fight with a record of 11-1, which includes win over Stephan Bonnar, Brandon Vera and Vladimir Matyushenko. His only loss was a controversial disqualification against Matt Hamill.
His opponent, The Ultimate Fighter winner Ryan "Darth" Bader, will be putting his 12 fight win streak on the line for this fight and has claimed victories over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Keith Jardine and Eric Schafer.
The hype behind Jones may be overwhelming for not having faced a top-10 opponent, but when you breakdown his overall game, you see why the hype is warranted. Even breaking down his physical and athletic ability makes you get excited about him. At 6'4" with an 84.5 inch reach, it even adds to the things he is capable of doing. That's longer than former undisputed heavyweight boxing champion Lennox Lewis' reach.
Bader's advantage in this fight is probably in the power he possesses with his striking and wrestling, but he does have some flaws in his stand up that can be countered by Jones' unorthodox striking and takedowns. Bader's best chance is to come out early and make Jones feel his power. It will be a risk worth taking.
The key to Jones winning this fight is to stay unpredictable and use his striking to set up the takedowns. He will find himself catching Bader being uncertain about what to do and waiting a lot more, which will help him win a decision if it goes there.
Prediction: Jon Jones by Unanimous Decision.
Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha
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Odds: Jake Ellenberger -325, Carlos Eduardo Rocha +250
This is a fight many are overlooking because of the stacked fights around it, but it should be a pretty decent fight to settle fans down between the other fights on the card.
Jake Ellenberger is 23-5 in MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. His wins include victories over John Howard and Mike Pyle.
He will be taking on Brazilian Carlos Eduardo Rocha. Rocha is replacing Jon Fitch who was originally supposed to be Ellenberger's opponent before being moved to UFC 127. Rocha is 10-0 with eight submission victories under his belt. His first fight in the UFC was against Kris McKray who he submitted in the first round via kneebar.
Ellenberger's biggest advantages in this fight are power and experience. He may be the most powerful striker in the division when it comes to punching. He came close to knocking out Carlos Condit several times in their fight, but gassed late in the fight and lost a split decision.
Rocha has a chance if he can carry Ellenberger into the later rounds, but it is going to be a tough task and one that we won't see happening. I see Ellenberger coming out early and overwhelming his opponent with a first round knockout.
Prediction: Jake Ellenberger by first round knockout.
Forrest Griffin vs. Rich Franklin
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For me, this is the most exciting fight on the card because it's the hardest fight to predict a winner. This is the type of fight where you get two fan favorites and no matter if they win or lose, you will always want to see them again. I expect this to be "Fight of the Night" and possibly a candidate for "Fight of the Year."
Former UFC light-heavyweight champion Forrest Griffin brings a 17-6 record into this fight and is coming off a split decision win over Tito Ortiz.
Former UFC middleweight champion Rich "Ace" Franklin increased his record to 28-5 after brutally knocking Chuck Liddell out at UFC 115.
I think one of the reasons fans are excited to see this fight is because they don't really expect to see either of these two fighters winning a title again. It's a fight where fans can just relax and enjoy watching a good fight where title implications aren't on the line. A win for either won't launch them into a title shot, but they will be fighting like it will, and that's what matters.
Both are coming off significant wins in their careers because they rebounded from knockout losses. They are both well-rounded in every aspect of the game, and I expect this fight to be evenly contested wherever it goes. Both have excellent cardio and heart to provide the same action in the third that they did in the first.
It's tough to pick out a significant advantage for either fighter. Griffin has better jiu-jitsu, but Franklin has a bit of an edge in striking power, which may be the key to seeing a finish in this fight. Both like to use a lot of leg kicks so neither holds a major advantage in that area. This is going to be a close fight until it ends or until the final bell rings.
Franklin's losses have mostly been by knockout and I see this fight going the distance. He will probably have gotten the better of Griffin for the majority of the fight, but it's going to be up to the judges to pick the winner.
Prediction: Rich Franklin by split decision.
Anderon Silva vs. Vitor Belfort
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Odds: Anderson Silva -270, Vitor Belfort +210
In what should be the most significant striking test for Anderson Silva, Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort will be looking to make a statement and will do so if he manages to pull off the win.
Both have a combined 46 victories and 28 knockouts. Silva has gone 12-0 since entering the UFC, which includes the records for most consecutive wins and title defenses. Belfort has just one victory in the UFC since leaving the organization in 2005, but has had some significant wins including an impressive and somewhat disturbing 37-second knockout win over Matt Lindland in January 2009.
It's been a while since Belfort has fought due to recurring injuries. His last fight came against Rich Franklin at UFC 103 in September 2009. He looked impressive in that fight, knocking out the former middleweight champion in one round.
Silva is coming off a near defeat win over Chael Sonnen at UFC 117. Silva was dominated to the point where he had lost several 10-8 rounds on the scorecards before catching Sonnen in a triangle choke two minutes into the final round. Other than that, Silva has only had one really impressive win in his last five fights when he knocked out Forrest Griffin in the first round at UFC 101.
This is another tough fight to predict. If Belfort had been fighting more, I would be a lot more confident picking him to win this fight. Silva hasn't looked good in a while, is soon to turn 36 and appears to be slowing down significantly in his fights.
Belfort isn't much younger at 33, but he does have a significant advantage in power, which he has always had and an advantage in wrestling, thanks to training at Xtreme Couture.
I am predicting Belfort to win this fight, but I don't see him holding the title for very long. Wrestlers have always been his biggest weakness and while Silva doesn't bring that skill to the Octagon, many fighters do.
Expect both to engage in their strongest area in a striking battle for the entire fight for however long it lasts. The key to Silva winning is probably in the clinch where he can use knees and punches to break down his opponent and use that to take him into the later rounds and secure a decision victory.
Silva's recent performances have really been off in terms of what the fans have expected from him. Everyone looks back and asks where has the fighter that was so dominant at knocking everyone out in the first and second rounds gone?" I'm not expecting to see that fighter in this one either.
Prediction: Vitor Belfort by technical knockout in the second round.
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