Terps Tournament Bound? Breaking Down Maryland's Chances for the Dance

Maryland has another two days before its next game—it's a good opportunity to think about what went wrong against Villanova.

I know I needed some quiet time, and it wasn't just because of the headache I contracted from the taunts of Philly fans.  At this point, you know what happened in the 74-66 loss.  Maryland befouled the bed, plain and simple. 

But I didn’t come here to talk about the past. Maryland is 11-6 and 1-2 in the ACC with 14 regular-season games remaining.  Only one of those games (Feb. 2 at home against Duke) is against a ranked opponent, and with apologies to the Tar Heels, 'Noles, and Hokies, that’s probably how it will remain.  

So what does Maryland have to do to make the tournament?

I've read and spoken with different writers and fans who remain confident.  I'm not sure I share that confidence. Some say the team can go as low as 10-6 in the ACC and still make the tourney.  Underpinning that prediction, however, is an assumption that Maryland will take the rematch with Duke and in so doing earn that all-important signature win.  Since Maryland is now 0-5 against top teams, I don’t believe that's a safe assumption. 

Maryland could also be redeemed, the argument goes, by a deep run in the ACC tournament.  As it stands, the weak ACC could lend itself to that, but Maryland does not exactly have a history of rising to the occasion in this event—in the past five seasons, the Terps have averaged a second-round ousting. That’s not gonna get 'er done. 

So with all this in mind, let me make a conservative prediction for the rest of the regular season:

Jan. 20 vs. Virginia Tech:  W
Jan. 22 vs. Clemson:  W
Jan. 27 @ UVA:  W
Jan. 30 @ GT:  W
Feb. 2 vs. Duke:  L
Feb. 5 vs. Wake:  W
Feb. 9 vs. Longwood:  W
Feb. 12 @ Boston College:  W 
Feb. 15 @ VT:  L 
Feb. 20 vs. NCST:  W
Feb. 23 vs. FSU:  W
Feb. 27 @ UNC:  W
March 2 @ Miami:  L (the inevitable upset)
March 5 vs. UVA:  W

So that puts the Terps at 11-5 in the ACC and 22-9 overall.  It’s not unlikely that that would be good enough for something like third in the conference.  But it may not be good enough for the tourney.  Remember: The ACC is fourth in conference RPI this year, and several other conferences (Pac-10, Big West among them) are surging.  Last year, the ACC had the second-highest conference RPI, and 23-8 Virginia Tech was passed over. 

If all holds true to form, I think Maryland will be on the outside looking in this year.  It’s still early, but that’s the way things seem to be breaking.  If Maryland wants to reverse this fate, they’ll need to depart from their own tradition by avoiding upsets and/or playing deep into the ACC tourney.  

In other words, just doing what they’re “supposed” to do will not be enough.

If they beat Duke, obviously that changes the equation. Everyone knows the Terps are proven giant-killers, but given their inability to finish games, I’m not going to put all my eggs—any eggs, actually—in that fragile basket at this point.  Conditions do not seem ripe this season for a deus ex machina. 

No, there will be no substitute for taking care of their ACC business, in a sustained and consistent way, from here on in. The chips will fall where they may, but the Terps may need to do a little something more than hold serve if they want to play in March.

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