NCAA Hoops: Tuesday's Big East and Big Ten Point Spread Analysis

If you were a fan of basketball and had nothing better to do than sit at home, watch games, and handicap point spreads then Monday was made for you. There was a smorgasbord of hoops to choice from either the full slate of NBA action or the quadruple-header of NCAA action on ESPN.  I choose to focus on the college games, as over the years NCAA hoops has been a lot nicer to me than the professional ranks.

We learned a few valuable lessons on Monday, Jan.16, 2011 when attacking these point spreads.  Lesson # 1:  When you like a side and the number is right pull the trigger right then and there.  This lesson was learned in my first selection of the day with the Villanova-UCONN game. Knowing this game would be tight and that every half point would be valuable, I suggested to pull the trigger on UCONN the night before when the line was at UCONN (minus 1.5 pts). 

I got very fortunate by doing so, as a Kemba Walker floater in the lane with only two seconds remaining in the game sealed up the two point victory for UCONN.  However, not every UCONN supporter was as fortunate.  If you waited until the day of the game to pull the trigger on UCONN you got stuck with the Huskies at (minus 2 points or even worse minus 2.5 pts). 

If you got stuck with the latter number with UCONN and took the loss, you can take enjoyment in the fact that a lot of the sports-books got " middled" on the game.  That simply means that alot of the early action came in on UCONN at (minus 1.5 pts), but by game-time when the line had jumped up to UCONN at (minus 2.5 pts) the action then came in on Villanova.  Thus causing both sides to win and the sports-books losing all the way around.

Lesson No. 2: Baylor is officially on my list of teams to never rely on again! 

After hitting the UCONN game, I had suggested taking Missouri at (minus 5.5 pts) over Kansas State.  While, there were a few nervous moments during the game, Mizzou for the most part cruised to a 16-point victory.  Nice 2-0 to start the day!  The third game on the docket, was Syracuse at Pittsburgh. 

I listed Pitt as my selection at (minus 4.5 pts), and this game had to be bet the night before to get the best number. If you waited until the day of the game to bet Pitt (at its new number of minus 6 points or even as high as minus 6.5 pts) you were still fortunate to win but you definitely played with fire.  When it was announced the night before that Syracuse's leading scorer Kris Joseph wasn't even making the trip due to a head injury common sense should have told you to get the early number on Pitt.  Because once everyone got word of this news you knew the line was only going to go skyward. 

If you waited until the day of the game to pull the trigger on this game, and Syracuse guard Dion Waiters hits that meaningless 3-pointer at the buzzer you only win by 5 points and you were a big fat loser.  Whereas if you got the early number of (minus 4.5 pts) you would've cared less if he made it or not.  So after Pitt's 8-point victory, I was now up to 3-0 on the day staring at the final game of the night to make it a perfect 4-0 on the day.

  This is where I now refer back to lesson # 2 that was learned on the day.  For some reason I suggested Baylor at (plus 4.5 pts) against Kansas.  That was a total whitewash as Kansas pounced on the Bears early and often en route to a 20-point road victory.  I finished 3-1 on the day, which gets the job done, but I really was coveting a perfect day.  On to the next crop of games, for Tuesday, Jan.18, 2011.

Michigan St. at Illinois:  The Spartans come in at (4-1) in Big Ten play, but it's kind of fools gold at this point.  Michigan St. has yet to impress me this season despite a veteran, returning team.  Illinois has dropped two straight on the road, but I prefer backing this team at home anyway.  A nice welcome back to Champaign at Assembly Hall should be just the elixir the Illini need to get back on the winning track.  Pick: Illinois (minus 4.5 pts)

 Georgetown at Seton Hall:  The Hoyas are too good of a team to be starting Big East play at (2-4).  I love the back-court trio of Chris Wright, Austin Freeman, and Jason Clark. As they go, so does Georgetown.  Seton Hall got a boost to their lineup when senior guard Jeremy Hazell returned two games ago after being out with a gunshot wound.  Hazell can fill it up when healthy, and forward Herb Pope is a double-double machine. However, simply put Georgetown cannot afford to slip up again in this one.  Pick: Georgetown (minus 3.5 pts)

Michigan at Northwestern:  So far this year I put Michigan in the category of one of those teams that plays to the level of their competition.  They take # 2 Kansas to overtime in a 7-point defeat, and then played # 1 Ohio State to the wire as well before losing by 4 points. Then what do they do as a follow-up to those games they go on the road to Big Ten bottom feeder Indiana and lose by 20 points.  Guess what this game is in Evanston, and the Wildcats have been solid at home all year.  Pick: Northwestern (minus six points)

DePaul at Marquette:  The Blue Demons are off to a horrendous start at (0-5) in league play and the future for the rest of the year looks extremely bleak in the rough and tough Big East.  Marquette is coming off a monumental collapse at Louisville, in which they blew an 18-point lead with 5:44 to play.  A loss like that can boil over into the next game, and DePaul freshman Cleveland Melvin and Brandon Young are capable of keeping this game within striking distance. (DePaul plus 20.5 pts)

Overall Season Record: 9-5