NCAA Hoops: Tough Spreads For Monday's Big Games

Sunday, Jan.16, 2011 was a good day for handicapping spreads in college basketball.  I served up three blowout winners, and was narrowly off the mark in the Purdue-West Virginia match-up.  Settling for a 3-1 day against the spread is an ideal formula on a daily basis to beat the number, but when you come within a point of a 4-0 day or even a 3-0-1 day it makes you crave to get back to work the next day.

For the spread junkies out there I offered St. Johns at (minus two) over Notre Dame, Georgia Tech at (plus 6.5) over North Carolina, and Washington at (minus six) over California.  They won by 18, 20 and 21 points respectively.  The Georgia Tech upset victory was even sweeter if you took them on the money line (the outright victory) at a 2-1 underdog price.  Unfortunately, Purdue let me down at (plus three), succumbing to the Mountaineers in Morgantown by four points. 

When West Virginia interior players Kevin Jones and John Flowers combine to go four of eight (50 percent) from the three-point line, when they both shoot in the 20 percent range from behind the arc you just shake your head and move on!  Here's a look at tomorrow's action.

Villanova at UCONN:  Villanova continues to rattle off W's, as they post a (4-0) record in Big East play.  Their guard play has been phenomenal this year.  The senior leadership in the back-court by Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes has been the catalyst to their 16-1 record.  UCONN has basically relied on do it all guard Kemba Walker, as his 25.6 ppg is second in the nation behind BYU guard Jimmer Fredette. 

I have noticed the steady improvement of Walker's supporting cast, especially freshman guard Shabazz Napier.  His added scoring bonus, along with his stellar on ball defense should prove problematic for the Wildcats.  Also, the cozy home confines of the XL Center should allow Walker's cast to play more relaxed.  Pick: UCONN (minus 1.5 pts)

Kansas St. at Missouri:  Both teams come into this key Big 12 conference clash at (1-2).  K-State has battled suspensions and chemistry issues all year.  They seemed to put it all together last game in a blowout win at home over Texas Tech with their full roster intact.  Mizzou is coming off a tough overtime loss at Texas A&M, and looks for some home cooking to get back on track in the Big 12.  I just don't see Kansas St. in the same light that I saw them in last year, and Mizzou on their home floor likes to play in mega-warp speed.  Pick: Mizzou (minus 5.5 pts)

Syracuse at Pittsburgh:  It's No. 4 vs. No. 5 in the nation, as both teams come in with unblemished 5-0 marks in Big East action.  The 'Cuse haven't even tasted defeat on the season at 18-0, but they will be hard-pressed to avoid their first loss in this contest.  Leading scorer Kris Joseph will not make the trip after sustaining a head injury in their last game versus Cincy. 

Obviously, the Orange are not a one man team but Joseph's 15 ppg will be missed dearly in a game of this magnitude.  Combine that with the fact the Pitt is a veteran team, and Ashton Gibbs shot the lights out on Syracuse's vaunted zone defense last year going six for nine from three-point range.  Gibbs is shooting 45 percent from long range this year and could be the difference to breaking up that Jim Boeheim 2-3 zone.  Pick: Pitt (minus 4.5 pts)

Kansas at Baylor:  The Jayhawks remain unbeaten at 17-0 and feature the dynamic twin brother duo of Marcus and Markieff Morris.  They have terrorized opposing teams on the interior averaging 30 ppg combined on the year. 

They also feature super freshman guard Josh Selby, but he has been off the mark the last three games going 6 for 27 from the field.  His struggles probably aren't a coincidence that Kansas has gone down to the wire in the last three games against Michigan, Iowa State, and Nebraska. 

Last game versus the Huskers was especially alarming, as they trailed most of the day at home before pulling out a three-point victory.  Baylor is coming off a head scratching blowout loss at Iowa State, after sporting a four-game winning streak. 

What I like is the fact that Baylor has yet to play a big name team on the season, and Kansas comes trotting in to Waco undefeated as the perfect opponent to get that signature win.  I'm banking on the Bears being extremely motivated at home and looking to make a splash on a nationally televised game.  Senior guard LaceDarius Dunn will need to score in the high 20's for this to happen.  Pick: Baylor (plus 4.5 pts)