Spread Eagle: Week 2 NFL Picks

What a devastating week it's been.  Not only because our reigning NFL MVP went down a mere 8 minutes into the 2008 season and won't recover until 10 months from now, but because we're constantly reminded of it through the media.  Hearing it hurts each and every time. It reminds me of when I was living on the upper east side of Manhattan and Aaron Bleeping Boone hit the game-winning home run off of Tim Wakefield in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS to send the Yankees to the World Series and leave Red Sox Nation to even further believe itself to be cursed.  All I wanted to do was forget it had ever happened and go about my normal life, but living in New York at the time, I couldn't escape it no matter what I tried.  Everywhere I walked there would be someone wearing pinstripes or a 2003 American League Champions t-shirt, or just a couple of people talking sports on the sidewalk with the inevitable mention of that home run.  Every time Sportscenter came on, there would be World Series coverage or some mention of that game.  I received dozens of unwelcome calls and text messages from friends who are Yankees fans.  Sometimes media can be a difficult thing to consume, and we're experiencing that right now with the Football Jesus.

As the founder of this blog so diligently laid out, I can't help but recognize that there is some sliver lining to this whole thing. After completely dismantling every defense in the league up until the final game last year, expectations coming in to the '08 season were so high that anything less than a Super Bowl victory would have been a complete disappointment. Patriots fans were going into each game under the assumption that the result would be a win, and the assumption was a blowout in games against teams not named the Colts or Chargers.  Fans of chronically-losing teams may think it sounds pompous to think this way, but that's not a fun mindset to go through a season with. It leaves absolutely zero opportunity for a "holy crap" season like the 2001 Pats brought us.  We were playing with the house's money all year that season; coming into this season, we were the house.  So am I depressed about losing Brady for the year? Without question. But part of me is definitely appreciative of the fact that we can be underdogs again.

(home team in bold)

SUNDAY, 1:00

Jaguars (-5.5) over Bills
Interestingly, last week finished with the Bills looking very sharp and the Jags looking flat, but these teams are similar in that they play solid defense, rely on the run and play much better at home than on the road. Jacksonville will be looking to avenge a horrible offensive showing against Tennessee, while the Bills will be looking to silence the critics who contend that their dismantling of the Seahawks last week was a fluke. There is no doubt that this Bills team is on the rise and has the potential to improve upon their .500 season in '07, but the Jags are playoff-caliber team and should rebound well from last week.

Bears (+3.5) over Panthers
If you would have told me going into Week 1 that the Panthers would win in San Diego and that the Bears would win convincingly in Indy, I would have laughed at you. But that's why they play the game.  I'm taking the Bears in this one because if they can make Peyton Manning look worse than Kyle Orton in Indianapolis, they should be able to make Jake Delhomme look like Ryan Leaf at home.

Packers (-2.5) over Lions
One of the Lions' two best chances to pick up a win came and went last week, as the Falcons ran all over them for 318 yards on the ground, averaging nearly 8 yards per carry.  Their next chance will be in Week 3 against the Niners, a bridge we'll cross once we get there.  The Packers looked solid with Aaron Rodgers at the helm against one of the league's top defenses on Monday night, and should cruise past the Cubs.

Vikings (+1.5) over Colts
Several of the Bears' defensive players came out saying that Peyton Manning had "no idea what was going on" in Sunday night's game as a result of their game plan and execution.  The Vikings can be just as stingy, provided they move the football on offense more than they did against the Packers.  With the Colts' defense, they shouldn't have a problem in that regard.

Saints (+.5) over Washington
The Redskins should be getting points in this one after looking like a high school JV team in the first half against the Giants in the season opener, despite their strong defensive play in the 2nd half.  Their offense was dreadful, mustering only 209 total yards and maintaining possession for only 40% of the game. Those stats won't keep the contest close against a team like the Saints who knows how to put points on the board. Why Jim Zorn is implementing a west coast offense with a QB as weak as Jason Campbell amazes me.

Rams (+8.5) over Giants
Here's my Token Home Dog pick of the week.  Hoping the Giants' offense picks up right where they left off.

Chiefs (-3.5) over Raiders
Plain and simple, the Raiders can't play defense. Fantasy owners of Larry Johnson should expect decent numbers this week.  Finally…

Titans (+1.5) over Bengals
Someone please tell me how in the world the Bengals, who put up a whopping 89 net passing yards in Week 1, are favored against a team who on the same day sacked the opposing QB 7 times, forced 3 turnovers, and gave up less than 200 total yards of offense? At this point, the Titans are front and center in the conversation about the top defenses in football.

SUNDAY, 4:15

Falcons (+8.5) over Bucs
Apparently Vegas wasn't convinced by Atlanta's dominance over Detroit in Week 1. Maybe they won't have the luxury of rushing the ball 42 times against Tampa, but if Matt Ryan can maintain his efficiency (completed 9/13 passes), this is a team that shouldn't be overlooked.  Especially since the opposing QB will be Brian Griese.

Seahawks (-8.5) over 49ers
Despite Seattle's injury-ridden receiving corps, they should be able to easily handle a team of the Niners' caliber at home.  They went 8-1 at home in 2007 (including playoffs) and they've made the playoffs each of the past 6 seasons.  Plus, they have something to prove after being completely embarrassed in Buffalo in Week 1.

Cardinals (-6.5) over Dolphins
The Dolphins won't be able to keep this one close if they don't figure out their running game. Chad Pennington was forced to throw the ball 43 times in Week 1 because his duo of running backs (Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown) averaged less than 3 yards per carry on the ground. The only time you'll hear about a team winning a game in which Chad Pennington throws the ball 43 times is if you're talking about the team he's facing.

Pats (+2.5) over Jets
December 2006 is the answer to the question you asked yourself after reading the above intro paragraphs (when was the last time the Pats were underdogs in a regular season game?)

Broncos (+2.5) over Chargers
It's not easy convincing oneself to bet against the Chargers, but a) LDT is not 100%, b) the game is in Denver, and home teams dominated in Week 1, c) the Broncos looked pretty dang good last week, and d) they'll have Brandon Marshall now that his suspension has been served. Given how the Bolts looked against Carolina, those reasons are good enough for me.

SUNDAY, 8:15

Steelers (-5.5) over Browns
Not only did the Steelers look like a potential Super Bowl contender in Week 1, and not only did the Browns put up the 29th most offensive yards and give up the 2nd most yards on defense, but the Steelers are 7-1-1 against the spread in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

MONDAY, 8:30

Texans (-4.5) over Ravens
If this game is even able to be played in Houston, you couldn't pay me to go against the Texans in this one. Not after what (fill in greater power) did for the Saints in their first home game after Katrina.

Cowboys (-6.5) over Eagles
Both of these teams looked unstoppable against mediocre teams in Week 1, but Dallas is a better team overall. The Birds will probably make the playoffs if they stay healthy, but the Cowboys are the current Super Bowl favorites.  Don't mess with them…yet at least.