2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR's Detroit Lions Double Trade Down Theory
In the wild-wild world of NFL mock drafting, it is one thing to attempt to prognosticate what team might select which player at the moment of truth, let alone try to hypothecate on a prospective trade down scenario. So, while we’re at it, why not a double trade-down scenario?
For sake of discussion, we’re going to assume that the cost to trade up to get the Detroit Lions “best player available” is too prohibitive to jump up the draft board, and they don’t have a player available to them that they would grade as a “value pick” at the 13th overall selection, creating a robust trade down environment.
The telephone rings for Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew, and the San Diego Chargers trade up to the 13th overall selection in the 2011 NFL Draft, by trading the Lions their 18th overall selection in the first round, and their third-round pick at No. 82. With Miami and New England having picks at No. 15 and No. 17 respectively, the San Diego management team charges up the board to thwart the Dolphins and Patriots who run the same base 3-4 defense.
About an hour later, the phone rings again, and this time it is the front office folks from Philadelphia calling to move ahead of the New York Giants. Martin Mayhew, continuing to sense the board will fall to him if he remains patient, trades down with Philly, acquiring their 24th overall selection in the first round, as well as gaining the Eagles third-round pick, No. 86.
With two additional third-round draft picks now in tow, the Detroit Lions would make their first selection in the 2011 NFL Draft with the 24th overall selection, and hold five picks in the top 90. With this kind of ammunition, I think Martin Mayhew could quickly close the gap of the remaining void, and really set the player foundation for the future.
By trading down twice in the first round, gaining two additional third-round picks, the Detroit Lions would have nine total selections in the 2011 NFL Draft. For illustrative purposes, this would be the adjusted selection allocations for Detroit:
No. Rnd Ovrl
1. 1. (24)
2. 2. (44)
3. 3. (75)
4. 3. (82)
5. 3. (86)
6. 4. (108)
7. 5. (140)
8. 6. (188)
9. 7. (234)
In this scenario, HäMMëR’s version 2.1 features new player selections and an updated nine picks in seven rounds. Just to provide continuity, here are links to my series of Detroit Lions mock draft articles:
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR Predicts the Detroit Lions v. 2.0
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/564976-2011-nfl-mock-draft-hmmr-predicts-the-detroit-lions-v-20 (Slide show format)
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR Predicts the Detroit Lions v. 1.2
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR Predicts the Detroit Lions v. 1.1
2011 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting the Detroit Lions
I have been a Detroit Lions mock draft enthusiast for several years. My selections are largely guided by the information made available by the fine people at NFLDraftScout (www.nfldraftscout.com) and Drafttek (www.drafttek.com). Michael Sudds (http://bleacherreport.com/users/281804-michael-sudds) is a draft prospect authority whose opinion I also highly value. I would like to credit these sources and make them available to you in your quest to “mock the Detroit Lions draft” like many of the Pride Faithful.
I try to allow for a reasonable number of compensatory picks beginning at the end of the third round, and each round thereafter, to give a more realistic feel for where the overall selection will be made. When appropriate, I will offer primary and alternate player picks for each prospective draft selection.
Let’s get the double trade-down theory version 2.1 started with a lightning-fast Mustang!
HäMMëR
Pick No. 9, Round 7 (No. 234 Overall), Aldrick Robinson, WR, Southern Methodist
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Allow me to say that there is no disrespect intended to any of these fine young men, who are each outstanding, special athletes, and where I slot them in my mock draft process is not a slight to them or their ability, rather my guess as to where they might fall in the draft resultant from a myriad of factors.
When I watched the Detroit Lions receiver group during training camp in early August this past year, I had high hopes that someone would step forward and lay true claim to the third wide receiver position (WR3).
I hoped that between Bryant Johnson, Derrick Williams, Tim Toone, and Bryan Clark the club would be able to find a solid producer, but Bryant was again nothing to write home about, Derrick rarely dressed on game days, Tim broke his leg while on the practice squad and was placed on injured reserve, and Bryan was cut, only to be recently resigned for special teams duty.
I think the late rounds are the place for the Detroit Lions to continue to sift and winnow for “diamond in the rough” prospects at wide receiver, making this fast pony a good get near the end of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Southern Methodist University wide receiver Aldrick Robinson has 4.42 forty-yard speed with a 5’10” 178-pound frame. Robinson is a legitimate threat to score from anywhere on the field and has a 96-yard touchdown reception to his credit.
Aldrick Robinson is the only player in SMU history to have two 1,000-yard receiving seasons and was named to the All Conference USA First Team. Robinson offers excellent yards per catch and highly consistent production, qualities the Detroit Lions would love to get out of their third wide receiver. Landing Aldrick Robinson at this stage of the draft would be a real “get” for Mayhew, Schwartz & Co.
Pick No. 8, Round 6 (No. 188 Overall), John Clay, Running Back, Wisconsin
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To me, the biggest missed opportunity of the 2010 Detroit Lions offseason rebuilding program was Martin Mayhew’s failure to add former Oregon running back LeGarrette Blount to the roster.
With the final selection in the 2010 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions passed on Blount in favor of Weber State’s quick and speedy wide receiver, Tim Toone. LeGarrette went on to run for more yardage than first-round draft pick Jahvid Best, and Tim ended his season as a member of the practice squad when he suffered a broken leg and was placed on injured reserve.
If you are a leader of men, I can’t see any challenge from which you would back down. I see the failure to add Blount to the 2010 Pride in a highly unfavorable light, as the leadership backed down from the opportunity to lead and guide a young man and surround him with veteran leadership like Kyle Vanden Bosh and Corey Williams, neither of whom play offense, but whose actions and words are measured with golden respect. Grade: Fail.
When the Detroit Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in Tampa to break their 26-game losing streak, it was LeGarrette Blount with the most impressive 40-yard run of the day, starting behind the line of scrimmage of course, and running a non-4.35 into the end zone, bouncing off tacklers all along the way. If you are fast enough and strong enough not to be tackled enroute to a 39-yard touchdown run, your 40-yard time is irrelevant.
To the same extent, Jahvid Best did not display much ability to run between the tackles with any effectiveness during the 2010 campaign. Fullback Jerome Felton was rarely given the opportunity to carry the ball, and Maurice Morris did a very good job rushing the ball when his number was called.
What the Detroit Lions lack is a big, power back who can run between the tackles and make those critical two-yard gains when the team needs it the most. I think that Wisconsin running back John Clay, an Associated Press All America Third-Team selection, would fit the bill.
With Gabe Carimi and John Moffitt paving the way up front for Wisconsin running backs, John Clay brings a 6’1” 248-pound frame at full tilt that rocks linebackers and devastates defensive backs. The addition of a power back like John Clay could extend the playing career of Jahvid Best, allowing him to be used to get the corner and in space as a receiver, while forcing opponents to game plan for the dual threat of the Detroit Lions backfield.
Prospective alternate picks in the sixth round include West Virginia cornerback Brandon Hogan, Arizona left tackle Adam Grant, LSU left tackle Joseph Barksdale, Northwestern outside linebacker Quentin Davie, Connecticut guard Zach Hurd, Texas cornerback Chykie Brown, Mount Union wide receiver Cecil Shorts III, and Northwest Missouri State cornerback Ryan Jones.
Pick No. 7, Round 5 (No. 140 Overall), Lee Ziemba, Offensive Tackle, Auburn
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To me, this is where value meets the mark when a team can draft an All-America offensive tackle who has competed vigorously and victoriously against some of the best competition in the country out of the Southeastern Conference.
Auburn left tackle Lee Ziemba has prototypical size for the National Football League and could immediately compete for the right guard position in 2011, or even find himself at tackle as Cory Hilliard and Jason Fox have this past season. This type of player who is a swing tackle or can play guard has tremendous value for the folks in Allen Park.
Ziemba has competed at a high level since his true freshman season at Auburn University, and with Mayhew and Schwartz placing a high premium on games played, Big Lee would be a nice road grader for the Detroit Lions offensive line at about the 140th overall selection in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Prospective alternate fifth-round picks include Oregon linebacker Casey Matthews (great for Detroit – Green Bay rivalry, and to see which Matthews brother truly has the better hair) and former Muskegon Big Red wide receiver via USC, Ronald Johnson.
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Pick No. 6, Round 4 (No. 108 Overall), Chris Hairston, Offensive Tackle, Clemson
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The draft stock of Clemson left tackle Chris Hairston continues to rise, and at 6’7” and 325 pounds, it isn’t difficult to understand why.
Chris Hairston has seen plenty of playing and starting time over the past three seasons at Clemson, and has twice received All-Conference recognition as Second-Team All-Atlantic Coast Conference in 2009 and First-Team honors in 2010.
In Chris Hairston, the Detroit Lions could find a Jared Gaither-esque player (fifth-round supplemental draft) with a later draft pick. Hairston has the frame to play guard or tackle on either side of the line, but may not have the feet to contend at left tackle at the pro level. Hairston’s versatility could be well served on game days. Fielding the best five players to knock defenders off the line of scrimmage is the desired outcome.
Get players better or get better players. Hairston playing right guard next to Gosder Cherilus would make for a mammoth right side of the offensive line for the Detroit Lions. The Detroit Lions’ 23rd-ranked NFL rushing offense averaging 100.8 yards per game must be improved to contend in 2011.
Prospective alternate fourth-round selections include Utah State cornerback Curtis Marsh, Texas cornerback Aaron Williams, and Nebraska linebacker Lavonte David, who would move to strong safety.
Pick No. 5, Round 3.c. (No. 86 Overall), Nate Irving, Linebacker, North Carolina
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It is my estimation, as draft day draws nearer, that North Carolina State linebacker Nate Irving’s draft stock is going to climb. How far his stock rises is yet to be determined, but Mayhew and Schwartz have an affinity for adding multi-dimensional players who are both fast and quick, can make a play on the ball, and can help to flip the field on defense. That is Nate Irving.
Nate Irving is among the sure-tackling linebackers in the 2011 NFL Draft, as attested to by his 2010 post-season accolades: Associate Press All America (Third Team), Walter Camp Foundation All America (Second Team), All ACC First Team, and the 2010 co-Brian Piccolo Award winner (most courageous player in the ACC).
If the Detroit Lions don’t see either Bobby Carpenter or Ashlee Palmer as viable options to start at outside linebacker during the 2011 campaign, I would expect Martin Mayhew to land at least one starting OLB via free agency, and selecting at least one, if not two, linebackers in the 2011 NFL Draft. Since the club seems satisfied with DeAndre Levy at middle linebacker, it is most likely the team will add players at the outside linebacker position, where Zack Follett had started prior to injury and Julian Peterson before his impending departure.
Whether the Detroit Lions secure new talent to bolster the linebacker corps for the 2011 campaign via free agency or the draft, they need a group who is more consistent at tackling, shedding blocks, and defending the pass against backs and tight ends. If the Lions could be set with the base of Carpenter and Levy going forward, it could lessen the need to find quite as many bodies.
Prospective alternate third-round picks include Florida guard Mike Pouncey, Clemson strong safety DeAndre McDaniel, Miami (FL) linebacker Colin McCarthy, Texas Christian linebacker Tank Carder, and Nebraska free safety Dejon Gomes.
Pick No. 4, Round 3.b. (No. 82 Overall), John Moffitt, Guard, Wisconsin
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Regardless the coaches’ assessment and the contract that confirms the courage of the front office’s conviction, a good many Detroit Lions fans would like to see the offensive line be upgraded at the center position. While John Moffitt doesn’t perform that task for the Wisconsin Badgers, I don’t think it would be impossible for him to transition to center after starting at guard for a year or two.
John Moffitt was named to the Associate Press All America Team and received All Big Ten First Team honors.
Since the Detroit Lions don’t seem to be in a rush to make a change at the center position, maybe the addition of John Moffitt at right guard could be a way to get a better push from the interior of the Lions offensive line, while closely observing Dominic Raiola enroute to becoming the future center for the Detroit Lions. I don’t see the Detroit Lions being able to effectively or consistently run the football at will until the club makes future personnel changes to increase the effectiveness of play at the center and right guard positions.
In this double trade-down scenario, the Detroit Lions would gain offensive linemen John Moffitt, Chris Hairston, and Lee Ziemba, a powerful trio to clear running lanes and increase the Lions rushing attack. Should these prospective players beat fruit for the Lions, the team would get definite value out of third-, fourth-, and fifth-round selections, setting up future drafts to shore up remaining needs or strike at opportunity.
Pick No. 3, Round 3.a. (No. 75 Overall), Quan Sturdivant, Linebacker, UNC
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North Carolina linebacker Quan Sturdivant was a January 2007 early enrollee in Chapel Hill, allowing him to play or start in 41 games since his freshman year. In 2008, Sturdivant led the nation in unassisted tackled with 87. During his collegiate career, Quan compiled 310 tackles, seven sacks, two forced fumbles, and four interceptions, one of which was returned 57 yards for a touchdown.
With the 76th selection in the 2009 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions selected DeAndre Levy, and outside linebacker from Wisconsin whose draft stock was elevated due to his play against Beanie Wells and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Detroit could get another dandy defender during the mid-third round with a multidimensional playmaker like Quan Sturdivant.
Quan Sturdivant has received numerous All-Conference Atlantic Coast Conference awards and had an outstanding performance in Nashville’s Music City Bowl against the Tennessee Volunteers. I enjoyed watching Quan Sturdivant seal the deal with an interception, a pass defended, a sack, and a dozen tackles (half solo, half assisted), as the Tar Heels beat the Volunteers 30-27.
If the Lions don’t bring back Bobby Carpenter to start at strong-side outside linebacker, Sturdivant could find himself competing to start where Julian Peterson once did.
Pick No. 2, Round 2 (No. 44 Overall), Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
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Jimmy Smith, the 6’2” 205-pound speedster from the University of Colorado, has seen action in about 40 games, but as a full-time starter only for the past couple of seasons. His play earned him 2010 First Team All Big 12 honors.
Big 12 teams tend to throw away from Jimmy Smith, so the opponent’s respect for his coverage ability has resulted in fewer opportunities for “stats” for Smith. Jimmy Smith is another playmaker who can take it “all the way to the house” anytime he is able to get his hands on the ball.
Bruce Carter’s ACL injury is likely to slide him out of first-round consideration, and if the Lions select a cornerback in the first round and Carter is still on the board when they pick in the second round, I think Carter might be a candidate to change shades of blue.
And who might the Detroit Lions be selecting with the 24th overall selection in the 2011 NFL Draft?
Pick No. 1, Round 1 (No. 24 Overall), Janoris Jenkins, Cornerback, Florida
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In the 2010 NFL Draft, the Houston Texans selected Alabama cornerback Kareem Jackson with the 20th overall selection, and the New England Patriots struck it rich with the 27th overall pick by selecting Rutgers cornerback Devin McCourty. The third cornerback taken off the board helped the Patriots lead the league in interceptions, as McCourty made seven interceptions, forced two fumbles, and had one sack.
The Detroit Lions would love to get a dynamic playmaker in the first round regardless the position at which they make their first selection, and in my double trade-down scenario with the 24th overall selection, Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins changes peninsulas.
Regardless a torn labrum injury in his shoulder, Janoris Jenkins may very well be the third cornerback taken off the board in the 2011 NFL Draft. Should his rookie production match that of McCourty’s, the Pride Faithful would be ecstatic and the front office well pleased.
Whether Janoris Jenkins is the Detroit Lions pick in the first round or Miami (FL) cornerback Brandon Harris becomes the selection, the Lions appear to be in need of at least one starting cornerback, and if Chris Houston is not retained, possibly two.
The defensive backfield was a source of inconsistency in 2010, and a healthy return for several Detroit Lions defensive backs could work wonders heading into 2011. Finding complimentary players to pair with safety Louis Delmas and hopefully cornerback Chris Houston is a must, whether through free agency or the 2011 NFL Draft.
I expect Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew to provide the talent resources to head coach Jim Schwartz during the 2011 offseason to create a very competitive defensive back seven heading into next fall. If the Detroit Lions can find production at linebacker and defensive back like they have found along the defensive line in 2010-11, the playoffs are a realistic possibility in 2011-12.
All the best, Pride Faithful, and enjoy the 2011 NFL mock draft season. Use the time to get to know the players who might dress for your team or against your team for the upcoming seasons. I started following James Farrior’s career when he was just a sophomore at the University of Virginia, and it has been very satisfying to watch his consistent level of play for so many years.
Mock not to mock; mock to know.
GO LIONS WIN!
HäMMëR
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR’s Detroit Lions Double Trade Down
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| 2011 Detroit Lions Mock Draft: HäMMëR's Double Trade Down Theory, Jan 9, 2011 | ||||||||
| No. | Rnd | Ovrl | Player | Pos | College | Ht | Wt | 40-yd |
| 1. | 1. | (24) | Janoris Jenkins | CB | Florida | 5'11" | 186 | 4.52 |
| 2. | 2. | (44) | Jimmy Smith | CB | Colorado | 6'2" | 205 | 4.49 |
| 3. | 3. | (75) | Quan Sturdivant | OLB | North Carolina | 6'2" | 235 | 4.63 |
| 4. | 3. | (82) | John Moffitt | OG/C | Wisconsin | 6'4" | 323 | 5.26 |
| 5. | 3. | (86) | Nate Irving | OLB | North Carolina State | 6'1" | 232 | 4.68 |
| 6. | 4. | (108) | Chris Hairston | OT | Clemson | 6'7" | 325 | 5.18 |
| 7. | 5. | (140) | Lee Ziemba | OT/OG | Auburn | 6'6" | 320 | 5.22 |
| 8. | 6. | (188) | John Clay | RB | Wisconsin | 6'1" | 248 | 4.67 |
| 9. | 7. | (234) | Aldrick Robinson | WR | Southern Methodist | 5'10" | 178 | 4.42 |
| No. | Rnd | Ovrl | Player | Pos | College | Ht | Wt | 40-yd |
| 1. | 1. | (24) | Janoris Jenkins | CB | Florida | 5'11" | 186 | 4.52 |
| 2. | 2. | (44) | Jimmy Smith | CB | Colorado | 6'2" | 205 | 4.49 |
| 3. | 3. | (75) | Quan Sturdivant | OLB | North Carolina | 6'2" | 235 | 4.63 |
| 4. | 3. | (82) | John Moffitt | OG/C | Wisconsin | 6'4" | 323 | 5.26 |
| 5. | 3. | (86) | Nate Irving | OLB | North Carolina State | 6'1" | 232 | 4.68 |
| 6. | 4. | (108) | Chris Hairston | OT | Clemson | 6'7" | 325 | 5.18 |
| 7. | 5. | (140) | Lee Ziemba | OT/OG | Auburn | 6'6" | 320 | 5.22 |
| 8. | 6. | (188) | John Clay | RB | Wisconsin | 6'1" | 248 | 4.67 |
| 9. | 7. | (234) | Aldrick Robinson | WR | Southern Methodist | 5'10" | 178 | 4.42 |
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