CFL West Division Crown Will Come Down To The Wire

As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, the Labour Day weekend and the following weekend would have a huge impact on how things would play out in the CFL, especially the West Division.

There was a possibility of a 4 way tie for first in the West after week 11. The Saskatchewan Roughriders knew that after two straight losses, their lock on first was in jeopardy. With the last two games against bottom dwelling Winnipeg, a split was needed to hold onto a part of first. With the acqusition of Michael Bishop, the Riders brought in help to try to take advantage of the weaker opponent. They were able to do that and because of it are in a much stronger position.

With the almost inevitability of Edmonton and Calgary splitting the Labour Day Series, the Riders only needed a split to stay ahead in the race for first in the west, but wins in Regina and in Winnipeg have allowed some breathing room in the race to the playoffs.

While the Riders back to back wins against the Bombers was impressive, their opponents in these next 2 games will bring a much more talented Lions defense against the young offense of the Riders. Back to back games are never easy, and while the Riders are playing much better than before labour day, I don't anticipate the Riders will win both against BC. The Lions aren't the team they used to be, but their defense is quite strong, and could be trouble for the Riders. The Riders defense is stronger than the Lions Defense, but the Lions offense is a lot more experienced, and may be able to handle the Riders defense a little better.

I think there will be a split of these games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Riders lose both. There has been good news coming out of the Saskatchewan dressing room with the news of the downgrade of the Matt Dominguez injury, and news of DJ Flick getting ready to practise again. These things will be great for the Riders down the road, but will take some time to get them back to playing shape. With the  two wins over the Bombers, The Riders will be in the hunt for the West Crown come the end of the regular season. Even if they lose back to back to BC, the RIders will at worst be tied for first.

The Roughriders are in first, but have some formidable teams chasing them down the stretch. Even though the BC Lions are in last in the West, they are probably feeling the way the Riders were coming into back to back games against WInnipeg. A team with weaknesses that can be exploited if they bring their "A" game. It won't be a walk, but the Lions have to be favoured coming in.

With 2 wins over the Riders, the Lions could be right back in the thick of things. Both Edmonton and Calgary play Montreal in the next 2 weeks, which won't be easy games. But they each play weak east teams as well, which could have one if not both Calgary and Edmonton tied for first with the Riders. Montreal is playing great football, but both games are in Alberta, and this week against Calgary The Als will be without Avon Cobourne for a second week.

For the Riders, 5 of their last 8 games are against west division teams, and they still have one more against the Montreal Alouettes in Montreal. Which leaves 2 easier games against the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Toronto Argonauts. If they can win both of those, and one more, they are guaranteed a playoff spot. Even if they don't win 3, I don't expect Winnipeg or Toronto to win 6 of their last 8 either. With the Schedule and the realities of a team with as many injuries as they have, the Riders will probably go 4-4 leaving them at 12-6, and however things pan out could still remain in first in the West at the end of the year.

The BC Lions are seeing some struggles on offense, and an injury to Jarius Jackson hasn't helped. Buck Pierce is very capable, and will win them some games. Wins against Saskatchewan would be a huge confidence boost, and would bring them to within 2 points of Saskatchewan. After that they play tougher games against Calgary once and Edmonton twice. Plus two games against Toronto and one more against Hamilton. I'm guessing they'll finish the last 8 games 6-2, and rounding out at 11-7.

The Edmonton Eskimos not only pulled a big win against Calgary at home for the Labour Day Classic, but also managed to win the season series with that victory. If things stay tight, that would give the Eskimos an edge in the west. Their Schedule on the other hand may not be an advantageous one. Hamilton should be an easy victory, even with the changes to the organization. But Montreal should have Avon Cobourne back when The Alouettes come to town. It's not guaranteed Edmonton will lose, but Montreal is starting to take stride, and if the Als lose to Calgary with out Cobourne, they'll be owly coming into Edmonton. After that, back to back Winnipeg games will be on the easier side, but my guess is the Bombers will steal one as they try to make a push. From there, the Esks have a back to back against BC, followed by a game against a Roughriders team that will have many of their injured starters back, and will be making a push for another home playoff date. Wrapping up with Montreal, Edmonton has a tough task going into the playoffs, and will have to hope if they don't win, that BC beats Calgary and hope to tie Calgary and move ahead because of the season series. I think the Esks could finish 4-4 leaving them at 10-8.

Wrapping up the West, The Calgary Stampeders have one of the easier schedules, which will bode well for them if they want to make a run for the Western Division Crown. Part of that is that most of the toughest games will be played at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, which will save them travel time, and keep them fresher than the teams flying in.

The Stampeders did give Alouettes running back Avon Cobourne the toughest time in week 3, but still must be feeling a sense of relief that Cobourne will not be in the line-up this week. Without Cobourne, the Als will have a tough time beating Calgary, which would give the Stampeders two wins in a row. Calgary plays 2 games against a Toronto team that will be energized by bringing in Don Matthews, but at worst will split the two. In reality though, Toronto isn't much better than the other 2 bad teams in the east.

Back to back games against Saskatchewan will be the toughest tests, as the Riders will start seeing players come back from injury. The way both teams have been playing, we can expect a split in those games, and I couldn't tell you which one each team will win.
After that, Hamilton and Winnipeg are on deck, followed by a possible playoff match-up against the BC Lions. I think it's very reasonable to think the Stamps could finish the season 6-2, and wind up at 12-6.

In summary, my thoughts are that Calgary and Saskatchewan could end up tied at 12-6, and first would be decided by points, and whoever scored more against the other team. From there, I think BC will squeak into 3rd and Edmonton will have to play in the East playoffs and we could see a battle of Alberta in the Grey Cup, unless the Riders have something to say about that. We'll just have to see.