NCAA Tournament Bubble: Will Arizona, Michigan, USC Be In Or Out in March?
With conference play finally underway, many teams have had the opportunity to improve their tournament resumes during the first couple months of the season. Now, not every team has taken advantage of those opportunities, but there have certainly been a few teams who made serious noise, Connecticut being the one with the megaphone.
As Joe Lunardi has taught us, the NCAA bubble is constantly shifting from one team to another throughout the course of the season. I know it's early, but with the New Year comes an early edition of Bubble Watch.
Here are 20 teams, listed alphabetically, who I feel have a case to earn one of the at-large bids, but also need to win a few big games to solidify their case to the committee.
Arizona Wildcats
1 of 21
Record: 12-3, 1-1 in Pac 10
The Good News: Arizona's best win came on the road against a solid North Carolina State team who's also on the bubble. They won all the games they should have in the non-conference and gave Kansas a very tough time at KU. The Pac 10 is still down as a conference, so going 12-6 certainly isn't out of the question and it would be hard to not take a 24-win Pac 10 club as long as they win the games they should.
The Bad News: Unless a Pac-10 team like Washington goes on a roll, the Wildcats won't have any signatures wins like some of the other bubble teams may have. Having lost to a mediocre-at-best Oregon State team recently, the Wildcats cannot afford many more bad losses. They also got destroyed by BYU about a month ago.
The Verdict: Barely IN. Make no mistake, Arizona is on the rise, and I'll be shocked if they win less than 23 games this season, making it hard to not give them some serious consideration. A win against Washington and some of the other top teams in the conference would make them a virtual lock. Right now though, with only one impressive victory and a bad loss, the Wildcats are not sitting pretty at the moment.
Arkansas Razorbacks
2 of 21
Record: 10-3
The Good News: Their worst loss so far is against a pretty good UAB squad that could give Memphis and Central Florida some trouble in Conference USA. They're in the much easier division of the SEC, only having to play Kentucky, Florida, and Vanderbilt once. An 11-5 record in the conference is not a stretch. One of their best players, Marshawn Powell, has recently come back from a suspension.
The Bad News: The Razorbacks lost a golden opportunity against Texas the other night, and it wasn't close, 79-46. Their best win is against a Jeremy Hazell-less Seton Hall team on a neutral court, which doesn't say much. Grabbing a signature win will require Arkansas to go on the road to Lexington for Gainesville to get it, neither of which is particularly easy.
The Verdict: OUT. Had they beaten Texas, they'd probably be in with such a quality win, but with a horrendous showing like that just before conference play begins for Arkansas, it will be tough for them to bounce back. They'll need to hope for a quality record in order to avoid one of the big guns in the other division early in the SEC tournament.
Cleveland State Vikings
3 of 21
Record: 15-1, 4-0 in Horizon
The Good News: The Vikings have won every game they should have, with their only loss being on the road against West Virginia. In a mid-major conference with really only a couple of other tournament-possible teams (Butler and maybe Detroit), CSU can get to 25-27 wins no problem. Recently Cleveland State has been the only team in the conference to be able to hang with Butler, so if they're able to get a win against the Bulldogs it would do wonders for them. They've also had a history of pulling upsets in the early rounds. Let's take a minute for the Wake Forest fans to compose themselves...okay we're good.
The Bad News: I wish I could say they had a quality win, but I really can't. Home against Iona and South Florida are arguably their best victories of the season. The West Virginia game was their only chance for a quality non-conference win and they couldn't get it done. Their NCAA tournament life could hinge on the Butler games which isn't a good thing.
The Verdict: IN. Only a few teams have lost just one game this far through the season and I think all of them are viewed as NCAA material. The Vikings are no different. As long as they don't falter in the Horizon, the Butler games will mean more for seeding than anything. For what it's worth, I see them splitting with Butler.
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Dayton Flyers
4 of 21
Record: 12-3
The Good News: Dayton is probably the second or third best team in the Atlantic 10, which has become a two or three bid conference recently. They have a couple good wins on the road against Mississippi and home against New Mexico (both with solid records in good conferences). Those wins could look much better later on in the year.
The Bad News: The Flyers have a horrible loss at home to a 7-7 East Tennessee State squad, and got destroyed against the Cincinnati Bearcats which has yet to be deemed a good team despite an undefeated start. No wins against the top 25 may also hurt their case compared to other potential A-10 candidates.
The Verdict: Barely OUT. The bad loss more or less cancels out their two quality wins in my eyes. However, with a couple wins against Richmond or Temple and the Flyers would definitely play their way in. If in fact the A-10 is a three bid league this season, Dayton most likely takes the final one at this point in the season.
Georgia Bulldogs
5 of 21
Record: 11-2
The Good News: Georgia's two losses are both against NCAA teams (Notre Dame and Temple on a neutral floor) and it was the first two games back for their star player, Trey Thompkins. With Thompkins healthy, the Bulldogs have reeled off eight straight victories. In the SEC, they'll have many opportunities for quality wins.
The Bad News: Unlike Arkansas, the Bulldogs play in the harder division of the conference. Two games each against Vandy, Kentucky, and Florida could equal six losses and zero quality wins. Their non-conference gave them nothing to show off to the committee.
The Verdict: OUT. A complete lack of good wins at this point and a tough road ahead means the Bulldogs will have to win a few big games in order to make up for what looks to be a fair number of losses in the SEC. Granted, it wasn't too long ago when Georgia won the SEC tournament to make it in, so it's not like they've never had to win games to make it to March Madness.
Marquette Golden Eagles
6 of 21
Record: 10-4, 1-0 in Big East
The Good News: Of their four losses, all were by single digits, and none of those teams are expected to miss the NCAA tournament (Duke, Gonzaga, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt). Their victory over fellow bubble team West Virginia to start Big East play gives them their best win of the year and starts the marathon that is the Big East off on a good note. With the Big East typically garnering around eight bids per season, Marquette is one of the few bubbles teams that could get away with a mediocre conference record.
The Bad News: It's the Big East. Nothing is easy. Eight of their next ten games are against top 25 teams, with four of them being on the road. The Golden Eagles will need to at least win a couple of those games in order to maintain, or improve, their bubble status.
The Verdict: IN. The Eagles have shown that they can play with the best in the country, meaning they could definitely make noise in the first couple rounds of the NCAA tournament, something I think the committee looks intently at. A 10-8 conference record will probably get them in and I think they can do it.
Maryland Terrapins
7 of 21
Record: 10-4, 0-1 in ACC
The Good News: The Terps were able to hang with Temple, Pittsburgh, and Illinois until ultimately losing late by single digits. The ACC looks to be down this season aside from Duke, so many of their conference games are winnable. Coach Gary Williams is a veteran of taking teams to the NCAA's and it's not like he doesn't have the talent to make another trip.
The Bad News: Man, it would have been nice for Maryland to have won one of those games against top-level competition. They have yet to score a quality win and a loss at home to Boston College certainly didn't help their situation.
The verdict: Barely OUT. None of their losses are bad, but a total lack of good wins means they're out for now. Every ACC game is winnable except for maybe Duke on the road, so an excellent conference record isn't out of the question. The Terps have a couple chances coming up to record a signature win as they play at Duke and at Villanova next week. Should they win one of those games and the Terps have a great chance at making it.
Miami Hurricanes
8 of 21
Record: 11-4, 0-1 in ACC
The Good News: Miami racked up two solid wins in a row beating Mississippi and West Virginia at home about a month ago. Three of their losses (at Memphis, at Duke, and UCF on a neutral court) are respectable and after Duke, the ACC is wide open.
The Bad News: Even though the ACC is wide open, there aren't many easy teams in the conference either. The Hurricanes' lack of success recently could make it difficult for them to keep it together should they struggle early. A fifteen point loss at Rutgers doesn't help things, either.
The Verdict: OUT. Call me traditional, but until Miami starts beating quality opponents in the ACC with regularity, I'm not buying them as a threat to get an NCAA bid. Upcoming home games against Florida State and North Carolina will be huge for the Hurricanes if they hope to improve their resume.
Michigan Wolverines
9 of 21
Record: 11-4, 1-2 in Big Ten
The Good News: The Wolverines worst loss is against a pretty good UTEP team on a neutral floor, which isn't bad and managed to lose by only three points against Syracuse on a neutral court as well. They also have a good win against Clemson on the road. Being in the Big Ten will give them plenty of opportunities to for quality wins.
The Bad News: Of their remaining sixteen games, a whopping eight of them are against teams currently ranked in the top 25. Of those eight, I see only one (home against Minnesota) that they have a good chance to win. Starting off conference play with double-digit losses to Purdue and Wisconsin is probably not what coach John Beilein had in mind.
The Verdict: OUT. One quality win and a rugged schedule loom ahead for the Wolverines, who could struggle to finish at .500 in the conference. They're going to need to surprise some teams to get a resume that warrants serious consideration. Having lost their two top scorers from last year (Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims) will make that a problem.
Missouri State Bears
10 of 21
Record: 11-3, 3-0 in Missouri Valley
The Good News: The Missouri Valley Conference is slowly becoming one of the top mid-major conferences along with the Atlantic 10, meaning multiple bids are likely. Starting off 3-0 including a quality win on the road against Creighton is a great way to kick off conference play for the Bears. Two of their losses are respectable (on the road vs. Tennessee and Oklahoma State) and with a couple more good wins against conference opponents, the Bears would be in great shape.
The Bad News: Zero quality non-conference wins. It's hard to even guess at what their best one was. A double-digit loss to a mediocre Tulsa team definitely hurts. With only fifteen games left, going 10-5 the rest of the way might not be good enough to get them in.
The Verdict: IN. Had I wrote this before the Creighton game, they probably would have been out, but that gives them a quality victory that some other bubble teams don't have. Everything will come down to how well they play in the conference, and beating Wichita State (probably the best team in the Missouri Valley) would be huge.
Northwestern Wildcats
11 of 21
Record: 9-3, 0-2 in Big Ten
The Good News: The Wildcats have won the games they should have so far this season. Their worst loss came at the hands of a surprisingly good St. John's team on the road. Their team is experienced from having gone through the NCAA bubble last season and just missed, so the players and coaches know what they need to do. Their conference schedule isn't too daunting like Michigan's either.
The Bad News: Knowing what needs to be done and actually doing it are two completely different things. Their best win thus far was a win over Creighton at home, not exactly something to hang their hats on in one of the best conferences in the country. They missed a huge opportunity on January 3rd when they barely lost to Michigan State at home. That loss may come back to hurt them in March.
The Verdict: OUT. It pains me to write that as a Big Ten fan and one of the many who wish to see the Wildcats finally make an NCAA tournament. Their lack of quality wins at this point does them in. They do have some winnable games against good teams on the schedule (home against Minnesota and Illinois) along with Ohio State at home, though not on the road. If they're able to pull off some good wins in the loaded Big Ten, that should be enough.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
12 of 21
Record: 12-2
The Good News: The Cowboys beat fellow bubble team Missouri State and have a great non-conference record heading into Big 12 play. The squad is accustomed to playing in March, having made it the last two seasons, so the coaches probably have a good idea as to what needs to be done. A 9-7 conference record (attainable) would get them to 21-9 and a solid case for the committee.
The Bad News: Oklahoma State also lost to fellow bubble team Virginia Tech at home and got destroyed by 21 points against Gonzaga. Not bad losses, but neither will go unnoticed. Of the Cowboys' sixteen conference games, seven are against top 25 teams while Baylor is no slouch as well. They have an important game on Saturday as they host Kansas State in their conference opener.
The Verdict: OUT. I think the loss to Virginia Tech cancels out their win over Missouri State, which doesn't leave them with much to show off at the moment. The Cowboys will need to take advantage of the bottom of the Big 12 to get their win total above twenty and hope to surprise a few teams.
Old Dominion Monarchs
13 of 21
Record: 11-3, 2-1 in the Colonial
The Good News: ODU has a few quality wins which is more than most of the teams on this list can say. Victories over Richmond, Dayton, and Clemson (all at home), really helped improve their resume before conference play. In a relatively weak conference overall, it wouldn't be surprising if the Monarchs ended with 13-15 wins, putting them well above 20 victories overall.
The Bad News: There isn't much margin for error should Old Dominion have to rely on an at-large spot. Any losses to mediocre conference teams could crush their dreams of playing in March. A conference opening loss at Delaware (7-6 overall) will hurt them.
The Verdict: IN. Three solid wins and a pretty good foreseeable future puts the Monarchs in with some room for error at this stage in the season. If they're able to get to 23-25 wins including their conference tournament, it would be difficult not to give ODU a spot in the tournament.
Richmond Spiders
14 of 21
Record: 12-4, 1-0 in the Atlantic 10
The Good News: Richmond has one of the more impressive wins of any team on this list, having beat Purdue on a neutral court by double digits a little over a month ago. They must also only play Temple and Dayton once each (on the road) which makes the rest of their conference schedule pretty easy.
The Bad News: Their losses are not good at all. A loss at Old Dominion is the best one they have as the other three losses are to teams not expected to sniff the bubble (Georgia Tech, Bucknell, and Iona) unless they win their conference tournaments (not likely).
The Verdict: IN. Richmond must hope that a couple of their losses end up looking better later on as they cancel out their victory against Purdue right now. Luckily, going through their conference with only a couple losses is definitely within reach. With the A-10 being one of the mid-major conference that routinely get multiple bids, Richmond will be able to take advantage of that.
Saint Mary's Gaels
15 of 21
Record: 12-2
The Good News: The Gaels have proven they can win in March before, as evidenced by last year's Sweet Sixteen appearance, so their name is fresh in the committee's mind. They won all the games they should have during the non-conference schedule, including at home against St. John's early in the season. Their two losses are home against a good BYU team and on the road against No. 19 San Diego State, neither of which are damaging. In a relatively weak conference, an 11-3 record would not be a shock and it would take awhile to find a team that didn't make the NCAA tournament with fewer than six losses.
The Bad News: Their tournament life may all come down to whether or not they're able to beat Gonzaga in one of their two contests in conference play. Considering Gonzaga has owned the WCC for the better part of a decade, that won't be an easy task.
The Verdict: IN. The Gaels have accomplished what they needed to in the non-conference and proved they could play with the better teams. Being the second best team in Gonzaga's conference makes them a huge benefactor should the Bulldogs stumble at some point in the season. A season-split with the Zags should slot Saint Mary's firmly into the field of 68.
St. John's Red Storm
16 of 21
Record: 10-3, 3-0 in Big East
The Good News: Steve Lavin's squad was able to pick up a huge win earlier in the week, beating No. 13 Georgetown at home. That, along with victories over West Virginia (away) and Northwestern (home) gives them more quality wins than most bubble teams. Like Marquette, a barely above .500 record might be enough to get them in unlike everyone else.
The Bad News: Have you seen their upcoming schedule? Talk about brutal, the Red Storm's next seven games are all against top 25 teams, including Duke. They'll be lucky to come away from those games with a couple victories. Their current losses aren't the best either, having been defeated by historic A-10 cellar dwellers St. Bonaventure and Fordham along with fellow bubble team Saint Mary's.
The Verdict: IN. The victories are too good to ignore and they have many chances to add on to those quality wins. 8-8 in the Big East with a couple more good wins should be enough to send Lavin's club back to the NCAA tournament for the first time in many years.
Tennessee Volunteers
17 of 21
Record: 10-4
The Good News: The Volunteers have two victories over current top 10 teams (Pittsburgh and Villanova) along with a recent victory over Memphis (ranked 22nd). No other bubble team has that many wins over top 25 teams.
The Bad News: Despite those victories, Tennessee went through a brutal three game losing streak that saw them lose to Oakland, Charlotte, and USC, none of which are NCAA locks. They then lost to the College of Charleston three games later. Four losses against supposedly inferior opponents is never a good thing to put on a resume. Also, don't forget that Coach Bruce Pearl will be sitting out the first eight SEC conference games so it wouldn't be too surprising if they didn't get out to a fast start when conference play begins.
The Verdict: IN. Their recent victory against Memphis makes them the safest team on this list. As long as they don't collapse with Pearl being gone during game-days for awhile, Tennessee should be an NCAA lock just like they were thought to be before the season started.
USC Trojans
18 of 21
Record: 9-6, 1-1 in Pac 10
The Good News: Wins over ranked opponents Tennessee (on the road) and Texas (at home) give the Trojans something to brag about. The Pac 10 is wide open for the taking and while the Trojans may not seem the likeliest of teams to end up on top of the conference, it wouldn't be a shock. Their wins over two ranked opponents prove that they can play with the best and win.
The Bad News: At six losses, they have the most of any team on the list. While some of them are respectable (at Kansas and home to Washington), there are a handful that are pretty embarrassing (Bradley and Rider both at home). They've been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country and the committee wants to know what they're getting when selecting quality teams for their at-large spots.
The Verdict: OUT. Yes, those wins are nice, but they simply have too many losses at this stage to be chosen above other teams with far less losses, but maybe not as many quality wins. USC will need to be more consistent and put up a pretty impressive conference record to make them an enticing ball club.
Virginia Tech Hokies
19 of 21
Record: 9-4, 0-1 in ACC
The Good News: Coach Seth Greenberg finally scheduled some tough opponents in the non-conference and it paid off in the form of a quality win against fellow bubble team Oklahoma State. Greenberg's scheduling should be rewarded by the committee after having missed the tournament because of their lack of good non-conference opponents in the past. The ACC is also wide open after Duke, and the Hokies have the experience to take control of the second slot in a big time conference. Luckily for them, they only see the Dukies once, at home.
The Bad News: With a better schedule comes more losses. They missed a major chance against Purdue at home in a game they should have won had their star player Malcolm Delaney not given one of his worst performances of his career. Losing their conference opener to a mediocre Virginia team doesn't help them either.
The Verdict: barely OUT. Right now, I'd put them as number 69. They don't have any bad losses and Greenberg should be rewarded for improving his schedule strength. The Hokies have the ability to end up as one of the best teams in the ACC, a conference that usually gets four to six bids per season. 20 wins with a couple more quality ones should be enough, it's just a matter of doing it.
Washington State Cougars
20 of 21
Record: 10-4, 0-2 in Pac 10
The Good News: Victories over Baylor and Gonzaga (by 22 points) along with three of their losses being by single digits give the Cougars a pretty good start to the year. Their worst loss of the season came against a halfway decent UCLA team on the road.
The Bad News: The Cougars have hit a funk much like Tennessee did earlier in the season, having lost their last three games. Starting out 0-2 in the weakest major conference in the country will hurt them, especially if the slide continues.
The Verdict: OUT. Just as the committee looks at teams' recent results, so do I, and a current losing streak keeps Washington State out right now. Now, I do expect them to get back on track with some winnable games coming up (home against Oregon and Oregon State) and with them having one of the more talented teams in the conference.
Summary
21 of 21
Teams I have IN the NCAA Tournament: Arizona, Cleveland State, Old Dominion, Marquette, Missouri State, Richmond, Saint Mary's, St. John's, and Tennessee.
Teams I have OUT in the NCAA Tournament: Arkansas, Dayton, Georgia, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, USC, Virginia Tech, and Washington State.
I will admit that I may not have adjusted my predictions with the four extra bids, but for those schools that I have barely out, I see them as the ones who would be in if I ended up not taking those four new spots into consideration.
Regardless, all twenty of these teams have some work to do these next couple months to solidify their cases to be apart of the greatest postseason tournament in the country: March Madness.
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