NBA Power Rankings: 9 Teams Who Could Hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy
The year 2010 is over and the year 2011 has begun.
In a few months, a new team—or perhaps the same team—will be handling the Larry O'Brien trophy. Of the 30 teams in the NBA, there are 19 who have effectively no chance. There are two whose chances once looked better, but now are diminishing albeit for different reasons, and a few teams who will make the playoffs, but won't go far.
For research I utilized two separate predictors, the Hollinger Playoff Odds and Basketball Reference's Playoff Probabilities Report. The teams in this slide show are based on the averages of those two objective rankings with a dash of common sense. While some opinion is spiced in, these are largely objective. Probabilities and records are based solely on the objective reports. Essentially teams that have at least a one percent chance by the average objective listings are the teams that follow. There are two exceptions to this, and they are explained.
You're probably thinking, why a top nine list? What's wrong with a top 10? Well, there's only nine teams that realistically have a chance. Unfortunately, reality doesn't always fit into neat round numbers. Here are some teams I considered as a 10th team, but rejected, and the reason I rejected them.
New York Knicks
I know Knicks fans are excited about their new team, and they are an exciting team to watch. I didn't include them because offense can only take you so far, and they're ranked 24th in the NBA in defensive rating. No team has ever won an NBA Championship with a defense that ranked that low. The Knicks offense is good, but it's not good enough to overcome 64 years of history. I can revisit this if they add Anthony but even then, I can't help but wonder if more offense and even less defense is what this team needs.
New Orleans Hornets
They started off smoking hot, but they are sinking fast. After starting the season with an 11-1 record, since they've been basically around .500. The Hornets are just not good enough. They need another piece before they can contend. I can reconsider this if it turns out that the Hornets that started the season are the "real" Hornets, but for now, it looks like they just started well, and the saying goes, it's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are the best team not on this list, and the one team that is a better than one percent chance not listed. The reason is not that they aren't good enough to be on it, but rather, because they probably aren't going to be the same team at the end of the season. If the trade deadline comes and goes, and Anthony has not gone anywhere, I'll reconsider.
9: Utah Jazz
1 of 9
Projected Record: 51-31
Probability of Winning: 0.75 percent.
The Jazz are the second exception. There are a few reasons I made them an exception.
First, the projections are based on previous outcomes during the season, and Mehmet Okur has only played four games this season. He's a significant player for them. I believe he's worth more than a quarter of a percent chance of winning as if he's even worth one game then he's worth that much.
Second, Deron Williams. And yes, I intended that to be a complete sentence, as it is in and of itself a complete logical thought. He shines in the postseason, and any team that has him quarterbacking has a great chance to win.
Third, I think there is a good chance that either they or Oklahoma City will claim the fourth first round home court advantage. If they do secure that, it gives them the edge in what would be a fantastic first round series.
8: Oklahoma City
2 of 9
Projected Record: 51-31
Probability of Winning: 1.8 Percent
After getting off to a rocky start, Kevin Durant has been lighting things up lately. Over his last 10 games he's been averaging 30 points and over 55 percent from the field.
The down side is that it's come at the expense of Westbrook whose scoring has dipped to 18 points per game over that same stretch.
This is a team that could go all the way, particularly if their two superstars are able to get going at the same time, at the right time.
7: Orlando Magic
3 of 9
Projected Record: 52-30
Probability of Winning: 2.85 Percent
Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I couldn't help but scratch my head at the Magic's trades. Did they rob Peter to pay Paul? I was wondering if their defense was gong to suffer as a result of their grab to generate more offense. Regardless of my opinion though, it looks initially to be paying off. They've won five straight, including wins over Boston, San Antonio and New York. You can't help but think that the more they play together the better they will get.
Technically, they would be higher on the list if I were just using my opinion but they are here because that's where the percentage lands them. I ranked them according to the percentages, not my opinion. Somehow i don't expect that this disclaimer is going to preempt the "Orlando should be higher" comments though.
6: Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 9
Projected Record: 54-28
Probability of Winning: 4.2 Percent
The Lakers numbers are lower than what one would expect largely because of their recent struggles. Obviously this is a case of objectivity not squaring with what we subjectively know to be true, i.e. the Lakers chances of winning are much higher than five percent.
The Lakers are not a lock, but they are the champions, and they aren't surrendering the trophy without a fight.
5: Chicago Bulls
5 of 9
Projected Record: 55-27
Probability of Winning: 6.15 Percent
It's probable that some have looked at Chicago as "not there yet," "overrated," or "not as good as their record." If that's your opinion here are some things to consider.
Chicago has won 12 of its last 14 games. Over those 14 games they have given up an average of fewer than 88 points per game and outscored their opponents by 11 points per game. Over their last 10, they've outscored their opponents by an average margin of 13.5 points. They are second in the NBA in Defensive Rating, third in rebounding, and 10th in assists.
They've beaten the Thunder, the Lakers, the Nuggets and the Mavericks in Dallas. They also took Boston to overtime in Boston.
All of this is in spite of the fact that Carlos Boozer missed all of training camp and is only now really finding his legs and that they've played the last six games without their best defensive player and starting center Joakim Noah.In all they've only played nine games together with their whole starting five, and a big part of those were Boozer's training camp, and Noah playing injured.
They are learning a new offense and a new defense, as well as having only four players that were on the Bulls roster last season. All of this is under a rookie head coach.
Finally they had the toughest part of their schedule to open the season, meaning that the remainder of their schedule is lighter than the first part.
When you put all of this together, it's logical to conclude that the Bulls are more likely to get better than worse. What happens when the whole starting five is playing together and healthy, and comfortable with the system and one another? The trajectory for this team is up, not down. I assure you, no one is going to be excited about playing them in the playoffs.
4: Dallas Mavericks
6 of 9
Projected Record: 58-24
Probability of Winning: 8.25 Percent
The question surrounding these Mavericks is, are they good enough to win it all this time? This is not your very slightly older older brother's Mavericks though. In fact, apart from Mark Cuban, Dirk Nowitizki and Jason Terry, they're a completely different team than the one that lost to the Heat.
Hugely important to this team is the addition of Tyson Chandler, who has become the critical piece of their defense, and that's what separates them from teams past. Now they can stop opponents in the paint.
It's not far fetched in the slightest to consider that Dirk and Mark will finally hoist the trophy at season's end.
3: Boston Celtics
7 of 9
Projected Record: 60-22
Probability of Winning: 17.1 Percent
Here's the question about Boston, who's more important, Rondo or Garnett? Maybe the answer doesn't matter. What we've learned is that they're a different team when neither of them is in the lineup. When they are both in the lineup they are practically unbeatable.
The most probable Eastern Conference finals pits them against the Heat, and it would be a great series to watch.
Either Orlando or Chicago could have the talent to disrupt that though.
2: San Antonio Spurs
8 of 9
Projected Record: 63-19.
Probability of Winning: 21.1 Percent
The Spurs are on a pace to win 72 games if you just look at their winning percentage. The thing is, if you just look at their wining percentage you're going to deceive yourself. The Spurs have played almost two thirds of their games at home, and only have played six teams with winning records on the road.
That means the rest of their schedule is weighted to being on the road, and that there are a lot of road games against elite teams left. It also means the road trips they've had so far are generally short. The longest they've been on the road this season is four days. That's going to change after today.
They will be on the road for 16 of their next 26 games, and that includes the annual "Rodeo Trip" From Jan 22 to Feb 22 they will only have one game at home. It's hard to imagine they will keep up that pace over that length of time on the road. Expect the Spurs to come down to earth during that stretch. That's a tough stretch for a young team. It's even tougher for a team with so many of it's critical players in their thirties.
Still, they are a team that is right now playing as well as anyone in the West and right now is the favorite to represent the Western Conference.
1: Miami Heat
9 of 9
Projected Record: 61-21
Probability of Winning: 34.35 Percent
The team has gelled, and they've been pretty much destroying everyone that's in their path since the team meeting. Not only are they 16-1 since then, there's only been four games where the other team came within 10 points of them. They've won a total of 18 games this season by 10 points or more, four more than any other team in the NBA. They have the lowest defensive rating in the NBA and the fifth highest offensive rating. Their point differential on the season is 9..5 per game.
And no, this isn't the Cavaliers 2.0 that's gong to get shut down in the postseason. No longer can defenses just stop LeBron and win. There are two other players on the team capable of scoring 40 points. It's starting to become clear exactly why everyone made such a big deal out of the three coming together, and simply put, it's a really big deal.
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